Estimating Food Waste in Saudi Arabia and Its Safe Valorization into Biogas, Fertilizer, and Feed: The WFER Model

Estimating Food Waste in Saudi Arabia and Its Safe Valorization into Biogas, Fertilizer, and Feed: The WFER Model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Estimating Food Waste in Saudi Arabia and Its Safe Valorization into Biogas, Fertilizer, and Feed: The WFER Model Omar Alhumaidan, Mohammed Alsaif This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6565118/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 08 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Discover Sustainability → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Food waste represents a critical inefficiency in the national food system, with substantial implications for environmental sustainability and resource utilization. This study quantifies food waste in Saudi Arabia and explores its potential valorization into biogas, fertilizers, and animal feed using a probabilistic modeling framework—the Waste to Feed, Fertilizer, and Energy Recovery (WFER) model. The model integrates national food consumption data, food loss rates, and technical conversion parameters for anaerobic digestion and thermal processing. A Monte Carlo simulation accounted for variability and uncertainty in food waste generation, energy recovery, and feed production while Bayesian updating improved model adaptability with new data. Findings indicate that approximately 3.15 billion kg of food waste per year could yield 0.15 billion m³ of biogas and a net energy gain of 328 million kW·h. additionally, 2.3 billion kg of plant-based waste could produce 9.4 billion kg of livestock feed, supporting over 3.8 million animals annually. Refined grains and dairy contributed the most to biogas and feed production. The model’s estimates aligned with national field studies. The WFER model offers a comprehensive and adaptive approach, providing critical insights for national sustainability strategies, resource efficiency, and policy development in food and energy systems. Valorization Biogas Fertilizer Animal Feed Energy Recovery Nutritional Sustainability Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 08 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Discover Sustainability → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 23 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 19 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 18 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Jun, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Jun, 2025 Editor invited by journal 21 May, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 09 May, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 09 May, 2025 First submitted to journal 30 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6565118","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":450217152,"identity":"6fa047ce-1d4d-4ba5-99c4-bf679a1ce6ef","order_by":0,"name":"Omar Alhumaidan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHhAhwdjAwHyAoYKNNC1sCQxnSNDCANTCY0CcFn72s8ekbtRYyPbP7vn84UCZHYO8e48B448a3Foke/LSpHOOSRjPuHN2m8SBc8kMhmfOGDDzHMOtxeBAjpl0DptEYsON3G3MH9uYGQxnpCUwM+BxocH5N0At/yQS59/IefzhYFs9WAvjj394tNwA2pLbJpG44UYOg8TBtsMM8hLJBxh42/D4ZcYbY+vcPgnjjTfSzIB+Oc5jwHP4wGHePtxa+PlzDG/nfKuTnXcj+TEwxKrl5NsbGx/++IZbCwbgMTjAwHCABA1AIN9AmvpRMApGwSgY/gAAO9lUt+tHU4UAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Omar","middleName":"","lastName":"Alhumaidan","suffix":""},{"id":450217153,"identity":"72d66a19-af0c-4d77-bf23-69ab4f7be528","order_by":1,"name":"Mohammed Alsaif","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"King Saud University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohammed","middleName":"","lastName":"Alsaif","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-30 13:01:49","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6565118/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6565118/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02040-9","type":"published","date":"2025-12-08T15:57:13+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":98245241,"identity":"97c2f9ef-e96b-42b5-be49-42bd32618fd8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-15 16:17:17","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1204894,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EstimatingFoodWasteinSaudiArabiaandItsSafeValorizationasBiogasFertilizerandFeedWAFERModelV5.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6565118/v1_covered_4f522778-532a-4c0b-872f-d471b318eccc.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Estimating Food Waste in Saudi Arabia and Its Safe Valorization into Biogas, Fertilizer, and Feed: The WFER Model","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Valorization, Biogas, Fertilizer, Animal Feed, Energy Recovery, Nutritional Sustainability","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6565118/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6565118/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eFood waste represents a critical inefficiency in the national food system, with substantial implications for environmental sustainability and resource utilization. This study quantifies food waste in Saudi Arabia and explores its potential valorization into biogas, fertilizers, and animal feed using a probabilistic modeling framework\u0026mdash;the Waste to Feed, Fertilizer, and Energy Recovery (WFER) model. The model integrates national food consumption data, food loss rates, and technical conversion parameters for anaerobic digestion and thermal processing. A Monte Carlo simulation accounted for variability and uncertainty in food waste generation, energy recovery, and feed production while Bayesian updating improved model adaptability with new data. Findings indicate that approximately 3.15\u0026nbsp;billion kg of food waste per year could yield 0.15\u0026nbsp;billion m\u0026sup3; of biogas and a net energy gain of 328\u0026nbsp;million kW\u0026middot;h. additionally, 2.3\u0026nbsp;billion kg of plant-based waste could produce 9.4\u0026nbsp;billion kg of livestock feed, supporting over 3.8\u0026nbsp;million animals annually. Refined grains and dairy contributed the most to biogas and feed production. The model\u0026rsquo;s estimates aligned with national field studies. The WFER model offers a comprehensive and adaptive approach, providing critical insights for national sustainability strategies, resource efficiency, and policy development in food and energy systems.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Estimating Food Waste in Saudi Arabia and Its Safe Valorization into Biogas, Fertilizer, and Feed: The WFER Model","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-05-06 06:41:54","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6565118/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-06-23T14:18:53+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-06-20T03:39:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-06-18T07:16:46+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"217359736921625259307550514056863992143","date":"2025-06-15T16:50:56+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"137703654793456535924451524034765694909","date":"2025-06-08T17:35:40+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"273248466827933297150138085399958256726","date":"2025-06-06T17:15:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-06-06T10:54:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-05-21T10:48:20+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-05-09T08:50:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-05-09T08:43:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Sustainability","date":"2025-04-30T12:42:01+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"52fb65e5-0ee4-4996-a9e9-8c71068ade63","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 6th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-12-15T16:13:30+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6565118","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02040-9","journal":{"identity":"discover-sustainability","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Discover Sustainability"},"publishedOn":"2025-12-08 15:57:13","publishedOnDateReadable":"December 8th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-05-06 06:41:54","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s43621-025-02040-9","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02040-9","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6565118","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6565118","identity":"rs-6565118","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}