Short-term load and spinning reserve prediction based on LSTM and ANFIS with PSO algorithm

In this paper, Short-term predicting of load and spinning reserve is first performed using a combination of ANFIS and meta-heuristic algorithms including Differential Evolution (DE), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The ANFIS-PSO combination is selected as the best ANFIS combination in load and spinning reserve prediction with a lower error criterion than other methods. As a DL method, LSTM network can provide good accuracy for load and spinning reserve forecasting. In the optimal ANFIS-PSO method, the average error value is low, but the error variance is high, on the contrary, in the LSTM method, the average error value is high, and the error variance is low. Therefore, we use the combination of ANFIS-PSO and LSTM to reduce the average error and error variance to an acceptable level. The weighted average method is as follows: the accuracy of each Method is obtained in the training step, then the predicted value for each data in the test step is calculated in each Method, then they are multiplied, and after that added together, finally will be divided to the total accuracy of two methods. The results obtained from the weighted average Method show the success of the proposed Method.