El Niño amplified food insecurity in early modern Europe

El Niño amplified food insecurity in early modern Europe | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article El Niño amplified food insecurity in early modern Europe Michael Puma, Emile Esmaili, Francis Ludlow, Eva Jobbová, Janavi Kumar, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7812038/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant source of global inter-annual climate variability, yet its long- term influence on food security remains poorly understood. Drawing on a recently compiled dataset of European famines and a new high-resolution ENSO reconstruction, we show a robust correspondence between positive ENSO anomalies (El Niño events) and subsistence crises during the early modern period (1500–1800). These anomalies increased the probability of famine onset in Central Europe – the European region that we find most teleconnected with ENSO variability – where we estimate that more than 40% of famine onsets are associated with El Niño events. To explain this finding, we establish a pathway in which positive ENSO anomalies are revealed (1) to be associated with excessive summer wetness and (2) consequently reduced grain harvests. We further show that ENSO effects on famine duration were even more widespread: El Niño events increased the annual likelihood of famine persistence by 24% in all nine European regions for which data are available. To explain this finding, we study grain price data and show that ENSO-induced climate variability drove grain prices up by 6.5% after one year – even in non-teleconnected locations. We posit that this outcome is consistent with significant market integration that allowed climate-related shocks to propagate across the continent. We further show that these grain price shocks spilled over to other subsistence goods, such as fish, an effect we attribute to demand substitution given the lack of apparent ENSO influence on European and North Atlantic marine environments. Collectively, these results provide novel and robust evidence for the influence of mechanisms of global climate variability on regional food security during the early modern period in Europe. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts Scientific community and society/Social sciences/History Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7812038","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":536692804,"identity":"b97bb5aa-1648-4acd-b5c3-e93ffe85c2c4","order_by":0,"name":"Michael 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