Millet Cropping Pattern Dynamics in Selected Areas of Karnataka: A Markov Chain Approach

Abstract Millets, a diverse group of small-seeded grasses, have been a staple food for generations, particularly in regions prone to harsh climatic conditions. Often termed as “Nutri-Cereals”, millets are highly valued for their impressive nutritional profile. The year 2023 was regarded as “International Year of Millets”. They are particularly rich in essential micronutrients like iron, zinc, and calcium, making them a valuable source of nutrition for combating deficiencies, especially in developing regions. Additionally, their low glycemic index makes millets an excellent choice for individuals managing diabetes or looking to maintain stable blood sugar levels. Beyond their health benefits, millets are recognized for their ability to withstand drought and thrive in poor soil conditions, making them resilient crops well-suited to regions facing erratic rainfall and other climatic challenges. To analyze the changing trends in millet cultivation, secondary data were collected from the District Statistical Office, Dharwad and the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Bangalore, from 2011-12 to 2020-21, focusing on several key districts in Karnataka, namely Chitradurga, Dharwad, and Raichur. The data revealed notable shifts in millet cultivation areas across these districts by transitional probability matrix of markov chain. In Chitradurga, there was a complete loss of millet cultivation over the observed period, with no retention of millet-growing areas. In contrast, the district of Dharwad managed to retain 36% of its millet cultivation area. Raichur exhibited the highest retention rate among the three districts, maintaining 65% of its millet-growing areas. These shifts underscore the varying trends in millet cultivation across Karnataka, influenced by factors such as changing agricultural practices, market demands, and environmental conditions.