Impact of Public Interest on Agricultural CommodityPrices

Impact of Public Interest on Agricultural CommodityPrices | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Impact of Public Interest on Agricultural CommodityPrices Sangmin Park, Mijin Ha, Seungheon Yi, Donghyun Kim, Ji-Hun Yoon, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5977904/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As financial markets grow more complex and sophisticated, the use of diverse data sources has become essential for accurate market analysis and prediction. This study leverages Google Trends data, representing public search interest, and combines it with a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to explore its impact on futures prices for major agricultural commodities. By applying the model to commodities such as corn, wheat, cocoa, and coffee, we analyze how fluctuations in public interest influence price volatility. The results confirm that periods of heightened search frequency for specific words often correspond to changes in futures price behavior, indicating that public sentiment plays a role in market dynamics. This study demonstrates that integrating social data, like Google Trends, into financial forecasting frameworks can enhance predictive accuracy and market insights, analyzing that the relationship between investors’ sentiment and commodity prices in the financial market quantitatively. Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Computer science Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Statistics Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5977904","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":413757886,"identity":"9f8369f5-1a31-4c2d-b639-1935e434ce3f","order_by":0,"name":"Sangmin Park","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pusan National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sangmin","middleName":"","lastName":"Park","suffix":""},{"id":413757887,"identity":"f571f7d7-e4b5-419f-8ce1-b4e7c98dac1f","order_by":1,"name":"Mijin Ha","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pusan National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mijin","middleName":"","lastName":"Ha","suffix":""},{"id":413757888,"identity":"976e94ca-3ca1-488f-92d4-6f3ca72e254f","order_by":2,"name":"Seungheon Yi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA60lEQVRIie3RuwrCMBSA4VMC6RLtmlLEV6gEMnl5lUqhU2dxFApxUVwjvkTBxbEQcCrOgg6Cs1hHB9Es4iBE3RzyDxkSPk5IAGy2P6wOgA7RsN31XnvYTPQxDqsyif3RDwT8uVBOXnxN3KxgNYEQ201YdV1B0xvhpDISso6OZIPrfF9yf1pCSxZYSSOhacjIgCC+TTnUBDg5uJn5Ys1zFRBMnaVM2eUmoPeZUAK+FKGT63GBntLPASszIQnXjxzFdL8eBA1BY6lwbCSeq476K+9db5EtLyfR7szGghnJK/pc0ZfgSWw2m8323gNMCUHrN/4qFAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Pusan National University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Seungheon","middleName":"","lastName":"Yi","suffix":""},{"id":413757889,"identity":"aad3c918-8298-46bd-86a7-45ca3fe8558c","order_by":3,"name":"Donghyun Kim","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pusan National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Donghyun","middleName":"","lastName":"Kim","suffix":""},{"id":413757890,"identity":"4db04e4e-7098-441c-8710-57b75ba63fd5","order_by":4,"name":"Ji-Hun Yoon","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pusan National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ji-Hun","middleName":"","lastName":"Yoon","suffix":""},{"id":413757891,"identity":"4f1baced-6d3f-4273-8383-a36daabfa703","order_by":5,"name":"Hyojung Lee","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kyungpook National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hyojung","middleName":"","lastName":"Lee","suffix":""},{"id":413757892,"identity":"4edf90c8-422a-4234-9215-00dca0d78d9d","order_by":6,"name":"Il-Hyo Jung","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pusan National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Il-Hyo","middleName":"","lastName":"Jung","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-07 05:23:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5977904/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5977904/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":76089963,"identity":"62827505-13de-40f6-ac7b-f3edc56c4750","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-02-12 08:23:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":653216,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"submit.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5977904/v1_covered_076421d5-38a7-40df-844b-e4658a2ce7c3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Impact of Public Interest on Agricultural CommodityPrices","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5977904/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5977904/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAs financial markets grow more complex and sophisticated, the use of diverse data sources has become essential for accurate market analysis and prediction. This study leverages Google Trends data, representing public search interest, and combines it with a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to explore its impact on futures prices for major agricultural commodities. By applying the model to commodities such as corn, wheat, cocoa, and coffee, we analyze how fluctuations in public interest influence price volatility. The results confirm that periods of heightened search frequency for specific words often correspond to changes in futures price behavior, indicating that public sentiment plays a role in market dynamics. This study demonstrates that integrating social data, like Google Trends, into financial forecasting frameworks can enhance predictive accuracy and market insights, analyzing that the relationship between investors’ sentiment and commodity prices in the financial market quantitatively.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Impact of Public Interest on Agricultural CommodityPrices","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-02-12 06:01:36","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5977904/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"979d8070-b459-4588-8dca-7a8646ac235b","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 12th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":44119477,"name":"Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Computer science"},{"id":44119478,"name":"Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Statistics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-02-12T08:23:12+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-02-12 06:01:36","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5977904","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5977904","identity":"rs-5977904","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}