Unravelling causal dynamics: Relationship between employment transitions and suicide in Australia

Unravelling causal dynamics: Relationship between employment transitions and suicide in Australia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Unravelling causal dynamics: Relationship between employment transitions and suicide in Australia Swikar Poudel, Sandro Sperandei, Andrew Page, Yi Guo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6235930/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Suicide remains a significant public health concern globally, with unemployment, financial hardship, and employment transitions cited as contributing factors. However, their causal association remains unclear. This study investigates the causal association between employment transitions and suicide in Australia from 2009 to 2018, utilising Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a dynamical systems approach. Employment transitions were categorised into positive transition, no transition, and negative transition groups, representing changes in employment status. Initial analysis of raw data suggested all three groups showed causal link to suicide. However, detrending the time series revealed that only negative transition maintained a significant causal association with suicide, while no transition and positive transition showed no causal association. These findings emphasise the critical impact of employment instability on mental health and the importance of stable or improving employment conditions in suicide prevention. The study discusses the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of employment downturns. Health sciences/Health care/Public health/Epidemiology Health sciences/Diseases/Psychiatric disorders Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 24 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 May, 2025 Reviews received at journal 06 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 22 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 22 Apr, 2025 Editor invited by journal 28 Mar, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Mar, 2025 First submitted to journal 16 Mar, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6235930","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":432015460,"identity":"b790baed-1872-4ef2-a31d-0851ce0175de","order_by":0,"name":"Swikar Poudel","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Western Sydney University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Swikar","middleName":"","lastName":"Poudel","suffix":""},{"id":432015461,"identity":"943f2b2b-6354-4944-8e08-c88efffc6e0c","order_by":1,"name":"Sandro Sperandei","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Western Sydney University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sandro","middleName":"","lastName":"Sperandei","suffix":""},{"id":432015462,"identity":"a99f19e4-76f5-4cee-b8dc-83282191022b","order_by":2,"name":"Andrew Page","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Western Sydney University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrew","middleName":"","lastName":"Page","suffix":""},{"id":432015463,"identity":"36e52960-3895-40f3-84eb-32f0e449595c","order_by":3,"name":"Yi Guo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Western Sydney University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yi","middleName":"","lastName":"Guo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-16 06:08:04","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6235930/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6235930/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":79059892,"identity":"ac40b188-39cb-4e44-83a9-efa9be586345","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-24 01:43:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2689737,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"pjrhddbtybyfyncgytpdfbstmmfwyjmg.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6235930/v1_covered_98c1e46f-6e83-415a-aa20-032108303d66.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Unravelling causal dynamics: Relationship between employment transitions and suicide in Australia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6235930/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6235930/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Suicide remains a significant public health concern globally, with unemployment, financial hardship, and employment transitions cited as contributing factors. However, their causal association remains unclear. This study investigates the causal association between employment transitions and suicide in Australia from 2009 to 2018, utilising Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a dynamical systems approach. Employment transitions were categorised into positive transition, no transition, and negative transition groups, representing changes in employment status. Initial analysis of raw data suggested all three groups showed causal link to suicide. However, detrending the time series revealed that only negative transition maintained a significant causal association with suicide, while no transition and positive transition showed no causal association. These findings emphasise the critical impact of employment instability on mental health and the importance of stable or improving employment conditions in suicide prevention. The study discusses the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of employment downturns.","manuscriptTitle":"Unravelling causal dynamics: Relationship between employment transitions and suicide in Australia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-03-24 01:27:26","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6235930/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-06-24T09:44:37+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"303162141528584403884901698327372114377","date":"2025-05-23T14:29:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-05-06T17:10:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"321498688893973526211612494811006168083","date":"2025-04-26T13:00:55+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-22T08:26:06+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-04-22T08:20:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-03-28T16:17:34+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-03-27T11:26:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2025-03-16T05:58:10+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"74ad0208-a0fd-4e3f-8a2b-d2adc59766c1","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":46016553,"name":"Health sciences/Health care/Public health/Epidemiology"},{"id":46016554,"name":"Health sciences/Diseases/Psychiatric disorders"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-07-30T03:38:10+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-03-24 01:27:26","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6235930","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6235930","identity":"rs-6235930","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}