Intrinsic fitness differences outweigh environmental matching in shaping introduction outcomes in nature

Species introductions and transplants offer powerful contexts to understand evolutionary patterns and processes, and they are increasingly critical for conservation. However, introduction success varies widely, and predicting outcomes remains challenging. Introducing multiple source populations should increase the chance of success, while also providing an opportunity to explore the factors that predict success of individual source populations in the same environment. We used replicated, mixed-population introductions of >12,000 threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ) to test whether source population success could be predicted by environmental matching between source and recipient environments and/or by intrinsic source population characteristics. We introduced four to eight source populations of stickleback into each of nine natural lakes and tracked their relative success over the following two years (up to two generations). Source population success was largely consistent across lakes, despite divergent environmental conditions. These results point to the importance of intrinsic source population characteristics rather than environmental matching in predicting introduction success in natural settings. Source populations that were consistently successful tended to have greater stress tolerance (mortality rate during translocation) and higher genetic diversity, though these relationships were not conclusive. Our study highlights the value of considering factors that generate fitness differences independent of environmental contexts in predicting ecological and evolutionary dynamics and planning conservation programs. Significance Statement Predicting which populations will succeed when introduced to new environments is a central challenge in ecology, evolution, and conservation. Environmental conditions are often assumed to be crucial in determining which populations succeed, given the expectation that populations preadapted to local conditions should perform best. We test this assumption by introducing >12,000 threespine stickleback fish from up to eight source populations into nine natural lakes spanning diverse environmental conditions. We show that the relative success of individual source populations was remarkably consistent across lakes and environmental conditions, indicating that some populations are intrinsically better suited to introductions. Our findings underscore the importance of considering intrinsic population characteristics alongside environmental conditions when predicting ecological and evolutionary outcomes and guiding conservation efforts.