Vaccination Intentions Generate Racial Disparities in the Societal Persistence of COVID-19

We combined survey, mobility, and infections data in greater Boston, MA to simulate the effects of racial disparities in the inclination to become vaccinated on continued infection rates and the attainment of herd immunity. The simulation projected marked inequities, with communities of color experiencing infection rates 3 times higher than predominantly White communities and reaching herd immunity 45 days later on average. Persuasion of individuals uncertain about vaccination was crucial to preventing the worst inequities but could only narrow them so far because 1/5th of Black and Latinx individuals said that they would never vaccinate. The results point to a need for well-crafted, compassionate messaging that reaches out to those most resistant to the vaccine.