The Iran War Energy Shock: Input-Output Analysis of Agri-Food Inflation in Safe-Haven Countries

The Iran War Energy Shock: Input-Output Analysis of Agri-Food Inflation in Safe-Haven Countries | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Short Report The Iran War Energy Shock: Input-Output Analysis of Agri-Food Inflation in Safe-Haven Countries Chi Shyan Yong, Chen Chen Yong, Muhammad Aizat Zainal Alam This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9291002/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The 2026 military escalation in the Middle East has caused a shock to energy prices. This has threatened food security throughout the world. Most previous studies have lacked an explanation on how energy price shocks are transmitted to industrial sectors especially the agri-food sector as well as their impacts on "safe-haven" countries. Therefore, this study used the Ghosh Input-Output (I-O) Price Model to simulate the energy price shock in energy-intensive industries across 37 safe-haven countries. The findings show that most of the safe-haven countries’ estimated inflation rates after the shock remain stable, but there are hidden vulnerabilities at the micro-level. The I-O model implies that energy price shocks in upstream sectors will be mechanically transmitted to the downstream agri-food sector; even a slight percentage point increase can disproportionately impact it. Conversely, certain safe-haven countries can insulate their agri-food production from such external energy price shock pressures by localizing their distribution networks. These findings suggest policymakers in transitioning away from consumer subsidy-based programs toward targeted supply-side intervention approaches, while at the same time providing institutional investors with a quantifiable framework for determining which investment destinations will prove resilient to continued geopolitical turbulence. Energy Price Shock Ghosh Input-Output Price Model Inflation Safe-haven 1. Introduction The 2026 military escalation in the Middle East has brought incredible uncertainty to global energy markets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cut off about 20% of global oil trade (Lee, 2026). This geopolitical disruption causes a shock in energy supply, which increases the cost of production worldwide. Agri-food industries are strongly influenced by tightly connected global value chains. Increased prices for upstream energy are disproportionately and directly transferred to downstream agricultural businesses and consumers, as modern agriculture is fully dependent on energy-intensive inputs, such as heavy machinery, industrial fertilizers, and extensive transport systems (Woods et al., 2010). As a result, countries reliant on imports are exposed to the immediate threat of food shortages. If left unaddressed, this situation will escalate into a global food security crisis and could threaten the predicted 3.3% world economic growth for 2026 (IMF, 2026a). Scholars have primarily used traditional econometric methods to analyze inflation dynamics such as Linear Regression, Panel Data and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models (Clements & Hendry, 2008; Bazzaoui & Nagayasu, 2021; Hmadouch, 2025). These methods are excellent for estimating overall inflation trends and impacts, but they fail to provide insight into the complex interdependencies involved in the transmission of rising upstream energy prices to the downstream agri-food sector. Moreover, the existing literature predominantly focuses on countries that obviously suffer from vulnerabilities to external shocks and lacks a focus on potential ‘safe-haven’ countries where capital flows into regions perceived as safe can cause unique inflationary or appreciation pressures on local currencies. This is compounded by a lack of research on the mechanisms through which global energy disruptions affect the agri-food sector in these safe-haven countries (Guerrero Sierra et al., 2024; Zgurovsky et al., 2022; Rajnovic & Cico, 2024). This limits the development of comparative frameworks, leading to a partial understanding of global economic resilience and hindering a more comprehensive explanation of capital outflow patterns. This study applied Input-Output (I-O) analysis to assess the impact of energy price shocks across 37 safe-haven countries by focusing on the agri-food sector in order to address existing gaps and accurately reflect current geopolitical tensions. By employing I-O analysis, this study can trace how cost shocks on the supply side are transmitted to downstream industries and determine the extent to which inflationary pressures in energy-intensive sectors affect key downstream food security. Therefore, this study presents a transparent quantitative pillar for policymakers and assists global investors in distinguishing countries with real inflation resilience. 2. Research Methodology Data for this study is taken from the latest 2024 Asian Development Bank (ADB) I-O tables which cover 62 countries. A systematic exclusion procedure was utilized to produce a representative sample of investment climates that remain stable during geopolitical turmoil. By using the Henley Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index (Henley & Partners, 2026) as a quantifiable benchmark for risk and stability, countries experiencing military conflict, extreme domestic volatility, or the developmental impacts of destabilizing international sanctions were excluded. The systematic exclusion procedure resulted in a final selection of 37 countries which were considered as safe-haven. This selection was curated to ensure that the resulting findings provide an unbiased evaluation of each country’s internal economic resilience under uniform external price pressures. To realistically trace current geopolitical threats, this empirical simulation modeled cost increases in energy-intensive industries across 37 countries. In particular, this study modeled a 1% cost increase in upstream energy-intensive industries. A 1% cost increase was chosen to represent current, persistent, and low-level geopolitical tensions. Through this specific shock, the simulation accurately quantifies the overall resilience of national economies to current volatility, as well as the inflationary pressures directly transmitted to downstream agri-food sectors. Meanwhile, this study also employed the Ghosh price model to show how energy price shocks can be transmitted to sectoral industries. The Ghosh model is derived from classical I-O analysis and is specifically constructed as a supply-based accounting model, making it an optimal mathematical model to track how upstream cost-push inflation is transmitted through downstream industries (Dietzenbacher, 1997). It serves as a highly effective tool for policymakers who need to map the ripple effects of sudden cost escalations. In terms of its algebraic structure, the model is defined as: where p represents the vector of output price changes, v denotes the initial exogenous shock, and (I − B) -1 is the Ghosh inverse matrix. This equation allows the study to systematically calculate how a targeted energy price shock raises final output prices across every sector of a national economy. 3. Results and Discussion Table 1 shows the inflation rates of the 37 target safe-haven countries under simulated energy price shocks. The results indicate that the post-shock increase in inflation was minimal across all countries, reflecting a high degree of the stability. The resilience of the macroeconomic structures of these safe-haven countries can be further confirmed by comparing the baseline inflation rates with the estimated inflation rates after the shock. Advanced countries possess an extremely high degree of buffering ability with respect to energy price shocks. For instance, the United States' inflation rose marginally from 2.2% to 2.3%, while the United Kingdom's inflation increased slightly to 2.07%, and Canada's inflation increased marginally to 2.25%. These variations confirm that sudden explosions in energy prices do not result in large-scale or systemic inflationary pressures in advanced countries. This is because advanced countries have diversified their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) away from heavy manufacturing toward the services and e-commerce sectors. As a result, this creates a shock-absorbing effect for energy-related price shocks, which allows the entire economy to adjust to temporary increases in expenditures without experiencing extreme price instability. However, this robust buffering capacity is not confined to advanced countries. Structurally diverse emerging countries also show strong resilience to external energy price shocks. For example, Brazil's inflation rose slightly from 3.7% to 3.85%, whereas Mexico's increased from 3.0% to 3.16%. Even those emerging countries with inherently greater baseline volatility such as Mongolia demonstrated similarly small increases in inflation to 8.23% as well. Within the deterministic framework of the Ghosh model, this robust and consistent performance across sharply contrasting economic landscapes underscores the importance of domestic industrial buffering. Despite the outsized vulnerabilities of emerging countries as commodity exporters, their current domestic economic linkages effectively mitigate aggregate imported inflation, confirming that these are resilient macroeconomic environments. During global instability, institutional investors typically search for safe-haven countries that can provide predictable costs, and they withdraw from countries with volatile and uncontrollable inflation (Ketkar & Ali Saleem, 2012). The findings of this study serve to create a qualitative roadmap for global investors. As shown in Table 1, these safe-haven countries successfully insulated their aggregate economies from the effects of rapid currency devaluation and systemic national inflation. As a result, worldwide investors are more willing to deploy capital and infrastructure projects in such safe-haven countries due to stable inflation, which provides the certainty needed to forecast future operating expenses. Nevertheless, these findings also act as a significant caution for both governments and institutional investors. Relying solely on national inflation statistics is fundamentally flawed when assessing actual socioeconomic threats. Policymakers might erroneously conclude that specific interventions are not needed because of the apparent economic stability suggested by the estimated inflation rate, thereby leading to a significant analytical blind spot. Meanwhile, there are significant systemic vulnerabilities within the agri-food sector despite apparent macroeconomic stability. This is because the agri-food sector lacks structural capacity and depends heavily on inflexible, energy-intensive inputs to withstand sudden external energy price shocks. Therefore, it is essential to investigate specific transmission pathways within the agri-food sector to fully understand the real risk of a geopolitical energy shock. Table 1 : Baseline and Energy Shock Inflation Rates (%) by Country Country Inflation Rate by 2026 (Baseline) Estimated Inflation Rate 2026 (Energy Shock) Australia 2.80 2.96 Austria 2.10 2.18 Belgium 2.10 2.16 Bhutan 3.70 3.93 Brazil 3.70 3.85 Brunei Darussalam 0.60 1.00 Bulgaria 3.00 3.10 Cambodia 1.80 1.94 Canada 2.10 2.25 China 0.80 1.02 Croatia 2.40 2.47 Cyprus 2.00 2.04 Denmark 1.90 2.00 Estonia 3.70 3.76 Fiji 3.50 3.57 Finland 2.10 2.20 Indonesia 2.60 2.82 Ireland 1.70 1.82 Kyrgyz Republic 6.00 6.13 Latvia 2.50 2.58 Lithuania 2.80 2.90 Luxembourg 4.20 4.22 Malaysia 2.00 2.18 Maldives 2.00 2.05 Malta 2.10 2.13 Mexico 3.00 3.16 Mongolia 8.00 8.23 Nepal 5.10 5.20 Norway 2.00 2.22 Singapore 1.30 1.37 Slovak Republic 2.70 2.79 Slovenia 2.20 2.29 Sweden 1.80 1.88 Switzerland 0.60 0.69 United Kingdom 2.00 2.07 United States 2.20 2.30 Vietnam 3.20 3.35 Note: Inflation Rate by 2026 acts as the comparative benchmark (IMF, 2026b ) Table 2 illustrates the underlying linkages of the energy shock, revealing how it universally triggers inflationary ripple effects throughout the agri-food sector. An examination of the agri-food sector reveals a direct mechanical connection through which simulated energy price increases are transmitted to downstream food prices. Although these percentage increments appear mathematically small, they represent a substantial and direct transfer of price pressure from energy suppliers to food producers. The I-O framework effectively captures this precise flow, demonstrating that upstream energy bottlenecks ultimately shape downstream consumer realities. The United States' agricultural sector absorbed a 0.088% inflation increment, while the food and beverage sector increased by 0.096%. Empirical results trace these shifts directly to massive upstream dependencies, registering extreme price transmission in electricity generation at 0.824% and mining at 0.706%. China also displays identical transmission mechanisms, where its food supply absorbed a 0.078% increase, linking directly to a 0.693% surge in its mining sector. Because modern farms require electricity and logistics networks demand fuel, any rise in global energy prices immediately elevates the operational costs of agricultural machinery. Within the deterministic structure of the Ghosh model, these upstream expenses mechanically transfer to retail consumers, thereby proving that modern supply chains function as direct conduits for geopolitical frictions. Moreover, the modern agri-food sector depends heavily on fossil fuels because reliable agri-food production requires mechanized farming, chemical fertilizers, and constant inland transport (Treadwell et al., 2024). Table 2 accurately maps this dependency. Mexico records a 0.045% inflation increase in agriculture, which is a direct result of high price spikes in electricity generation (0.758%) and mining (0.741%). Indonesia presents a parallel mechanism, where an agricultural inflation increase of 0.013% stems from massive exposure in mining (0.870%) and refined petroleum (0.825%). Ultimately, the energy sector fundamentally dictates agricultural output costs, proving that fossil fuel dependency structurally guarantees food inflation. Importantly, geographic and infrastructural limitations exacerbate this systemic dependency. For example, Bhutan recorded a 0.008% increase in agriculture and a 0.033% increase in the food and beverage sector. This vulnerability mirrors its extreme price transmission in electricity supply (0.873%) and mining (0.620%), because limited domestic production forces a high reliance on specific external energy inputs. These upstream bottlenecks dictate downstream food prices and pose serious socioeconomic risks. A country might report highly stable national inflation, yet its most vulnerable citizens could face a severe crisis in accessing food. Notably, certain countries have effectively severed the connection between energy and food, successfully insulating their agricultural systems. For instance, Ireland recorded a 0.015% increase in agriculture and a mere 0.012% in food and beverage production, while Luxembourg demonstrated identical structural resilience, recording an agricultural increase of 0.015%. Malta protects its agricultural sectors by maintaining exceptionally low price transmission in upstream sectors, with its mining increase at a remarkably low 0.081% and refined petroleum registering at just 0.100%. This resilience reflects highly efficient, localized supply chains that neutralize external price shocks before geopolitical frictions reach the retail consumer. These countries absorb external cost spikes efficiently and weather global disruptions without relying on widespread government consumer subsidies. These empirical findings fundamentally redefine strategic planning for both governments and institutional investors. Institutional investors actively seek countries demonstrating a dual-layered structural defense, comprising both macro-level inflation anchoring and micro-level supply chain isolation. Consequently, countries exhibiting stable inflation alongside decoupled agricultural supply chains offer optimal destinations for long-term capital allocation, as they protect investments against sustained global frictions. The I-O framework confirms this unique standing by demonstrating that substantive economic resilience requires both broad national stability and localized network insulation. By identifying countries that successfully sever the energy-to-food transmission belt, global investors can secure robust infrastructure returns regardless of ongoing geopolitical instability. Table 2 : Simulated Inflationary Increments (%) in Agri-Food and Upstream Energy-Intensive Sectors Increment of Inflation Rate (%) Agri-Food Sectors Energy Intensive Sectors Country Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing Food, beverage, tobacco Mining and quarrying Coke, refined petroleum, nuclear fuel Electricity, gas, water supply Chemicals and chemical products Other nonmetallic minerals Basic metals and fabricated metals Inland transport Water transport Air transport Australia 0.059 0.074 0.752 0.275 0.564 0.514 0.556 0.622 0.545 0.578 0.249 Austria 0.021 0.027 0.713 0.168 0.210 0.283 0.377 0.344 0.544 0.411 0.322 Belgium 0.019 0.023 0.387 0.083 0.466 0.340 0.363 0.203 0.458 0.278 0.088 Bhutan 0.008 0.033 0.620 N/A 0.873 0.610 0.619 0.596 0.678 N/A 0.354 Brazil 0.081 0.090 0.493 0.326 0.630 0.367 0.486 0.535 0.556 0.492 0.406 Brunei Darussalam 0.029 0.016 0.721 0.542 0.659 0.644 0.339 0.491 0.703 0.644 0.451 Bulgaria 0.023 0.032 0.616 0.187 0.481 0.406 0.396 0.268 0.339 0.405 0.269 Cambodia 0.022 0.083 0.729 0.260 0.246 0.556 0.641 0.572 0.588 N/A N/A Canada 0.083 0.076 0.632 0.509 0.863 0.482 0.553 0.373 0.696 0.571 0.575 China 0.065 0.078 0.693 0.538 0.610 0.497 0.583 0.534 0.571 0.513 0.391 Croatia 0.010 0.016 0.501 0.319 0.253 0.382 0.347 0.393 0.424 0.500 0.201 Cyprus 0.021 0.015 0.354 0.584 0.243 0.447 0.344 0.317 0.396 0.265 -0.143 Denmark 0.022 0.038 0.778 0.430 0.315 0.605 0.483 0.407 0.489 0.178 0.207 Estonia 0.024 0.020 0.531 0.304 0.521 0.259 0.361 0.330 0.407 0.383 0.141 Fiji 0.015 0.019 0.442 N/A 0.378 0.426 0.425 0.368 0.347 0.231 0.269 Finland 0.034 0.055 0.475 0.163 0.567 0.395 0.446 0.336 0.471 0.308 0.266 Indonesia 0.013 0.030 0.870 0.825 0.599 0.558 0.678 0.659 0.638 0.455 0.458 Ireland 0.015 0.012 0.656 0.754 0.286 0.580 0.434 0.360 0.673 0.135 0.170 Kyrgyz Republic 0.009 0.028 0.346 0.509 0.494 0.480 0.411 0.730 0.493 0.696 0.329 Latvia 0.031 0.025 0.514 0.443 0.380 0.307 0.343 0.283 0.463 0.420 0.094 Lithuania 0.035 0.023 0.467 0.154 0.513 0.306 0.377 0.351 0.505 0.571 0.250 Luxembourg 0.015 0.014 0.466 N/A 0.629 0.151 0.102 0.150 0.598 0.293 0.311 Malaysia 0.031 0.089 0.829 0.616 0.599 0.482 0.491 0.382 0.567 0.409 0.256 Maldives 0.007 0.039 N/A N/A 0.347 N/A 0.295 0.433 0.455 0.375 0.359 Malta 0.024 0.028 0.081 0.100 0.258 0.441 0.383 0.321 0.355 0.170 0.095 Mexico 0.045 0.054 0.741 0.725 0.758 0.468 0.575 0.473 0.734 0.569 0.461 Mongolia 0.026 0.062 0.518 0.338 0.453 0.248 0.347 0.431 0.223 0.401 0.167 Nepal 0.020 0.050 0.804 0.542 0.431 0.374 0.407 0.199 0.490 N/A 0.463 Norway 0.042 0.057 0.861 0.541 0.808 0.671 0.566 0.439 0.341 0.320 0.311 Singapore 0.110 0.046 N/A 0.083 0.501 0.449 0.274 0.368 0.539 0.234 0.119 Slovak Republic 0.012 0.028 0.424 0.199 0.431 0.230 0.385 0.322 0.512 0.538 0.385 Slovenia 0.011 0.031 0.412 0.477 0.520 0.404 0.404 0.338 0.421 0.371 0.446 Sweden 0.074 0.053 0.598 0.140 0.578 0.450 0.350 0.374 0.528 0.384 0.065 Switzerland 0.028 0.032 0.446 0.151 0.412 0.270 0.395 0.433 0.531 0.239 0.137 United Kingdom 0.046 0.057 0.700 0.258 0.306 0.452 0.485 0.478 0.443 0.396 0.187 United States 0.088 0.096 0.706 0.534 0.824 0.652 0.653 0.529 0.553 0.389 0.642 Vietnam 0.027 0.036 0.665 0.520 0.843 0.316 0.513 0.403 0.485 0.440 0.249 Note: N/A indicates that sector data was unavailable for this country in the ADB database 4. Conclusion Geopolitical conflicts inevitably trigger global energy volatility. By applying I-O analysis across 37 safe-haven countries, this study confirms that the underlying risk of energy price shocks lies not merely in driving up national inflation, but in amplifying cost transmission pathways within domestic production structures. Under simulated external energy shocks, the estimated inflation rates of the target countries after the energy price shock largely remained close to baseline inflation; for example, the United States' inflation rate rose only slightly from 2.2% to 2.3%. However, the stability of these macroeconomic indicators (inflation rates) does not imply systemic security. On the contrary, it actively conceals accumulating pressures within the agri-food sector. When upstream energy costs mechanically permeate the agri-food sector through established industrial networks, final retail food prices cease to be a singular macroeconomic outcome and instead become a direct reflection of underlying structural vulnerabilities. This implies that robust inflation analytics must transcend aggregate metrics to thoroughly examine specific inter-sectoral dependencies. Internal structural disparities dictate not only short-term price fluctuations within agri-food sector but also long-term socioeconomic resilience. Consequently, cost-push inflation must be redefined not merely as a macroeconomic phenomenon, but as a direct manifestation of industrial structural rigidities. This structural perspective provides a precise analytical foundation for economic governance. Effective policy does not lie in expanding broad-based fiscal subsidies to households, which merely stimulates demand without resolving fundamental bottlenecks, but rather in identifying and severing key supply-side transmission nodes. In the short term, governments must implement targeted strategic interventions, such as subsidizing specific fuels used in agricultural distribution or capping rural electricity prices. Although such targeted price caps may cause temporary market distortions, they serve as essential economic “circuit breakers” to protect vulnerable demographics from severe food insecurity. However, long-term structural resilience requires sustained decoupling through strategic investments in renewable energy infrastructure and highly efficient, localized distribution networks. Restructuring the deep interdependence between fossil fuels and agri-food production is a crucial step to prevent external input shocks from triggering domestic food crises, while simultaneously advancing Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2: Zero Hunger. Simultaneously, these empirical findings refine the strategic blueprint for global capital allocation. Institutional investors are actively seeking investment destinations that offer dual structural defenses at both the macro (inflation anchoring) and micro (supply chain decoupling) levels. Countries that successfully sever the transmission belt between global energy markets and domestic agricultural output will secure long-term investment appeal, guaranteeing robust infrastructure returns regardless of ongoing international geopolitical turbulence. Declarations Author contribution: C.S.Y was involved in paper writing and analysis. C.C.Y contributed to idea development, methodology and paper refinement. Z.A.M.A played the role in proof-reading and reviewing the paper. Funding : The study was funded by an International Grant (grant no. IF078-2022) from the Singapore Food Agency where the grant was awarded to the corresponding author Data availability: No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study. Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests. References Bazzaoui, L., & Nagayasu, J. (2021). Is Inflation Fiscally Determined? Sustainability, 13 (20), 11306. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011306 Clements, M. P., & Hendry, D. F. (2008). Forecasting annual UK inflation using an econometric model over 1875–1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-8715(07)00201-1 Dietzenbacher, E. (1997). In vindication of the Ghosh model: a reinterpretation as a price model . Journal of regional science, 37 (4), 629-651. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-4146.00073 Guerrero Sierra, H. F., Hernández Pérez, M., & Rojas Mora, J. E. (2024). Geopolitical shocks and global value chains: an estimation by autoregressive vectors. Revista Científica General José María Córdova, 22 (47), 739-754. https://doi.org/10.21830/19006586.1378 Henley & Partners. (2026). Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index. https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/global-investment-risk-and-resilience-index. Accessed 18 Mar 2026. Hmadouch, Y. A. (2025). Domestic and external drivers of inflation in oil importing developing countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy , 15 . https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.17763 IMF. (2026a). Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026. Accessed 8 Mar 2026. IMF. (2026b). Inflation rate, end of period consumer prices. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIEPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/FJI/MDV/BRN. Accessed 8 Mar 2026. Ketkar, S., & Ali Saleem, R. M. (2012). Does Home Country Institutional Quality Matter for Foreign Asset Divestitures? Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy , 3 (01), 1240002. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993312400029 Lee, Y. S. (2026, March). The Strait of Hormuz is facing a blockade. These countries will be most impacted. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/strait-of-hormuz-closure-which-countries-will-be-hit-the-most.html. Accessed 8 Mar 2026. Rajnović, L., & Cico, S. (2024). Possibilities of Sustainable Business Operations of Economic Entities in Conditions of Extraordinary External Influences. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83549-780-720241009 Treadwell, D. D., Zotarelli, L., Dittmar, P. J., Williamson, J. G., Resende Jr, M. F., Martin-Ryals, A. D., ... & Michaux, S. P. (2024). Transitioning away from fossil fuels will drive repositioning of horticulture. HortScience , 59 (5), 561-564. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI17724-24 Woods, J., Williams, A., Hughes, J. K., Black, M., & Murphy, R. (2010). Energy and the food system. Philosophical transactions of the Royal society B: Biological Sciences , 365 (1554), 2991-3006. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0172 Zgurovsky, M., Kravchenko, M., Boiarynova, K., Kopishynska, K., & Pyshnograiev, I. (2022, October). The energy independence of the European countries: Consequences of the Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine. In 2022 IEEE 3rd International Conference on System Analysis & Intelligent Computing (SAIC) (pp. 1-4). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/SAIC57818.2022.9923004 Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe 2026 military escalation in the Middle East has brought incredible uncertainty to global energy markets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cut off about 20% of global oil trade (Lee, 2026). This geopolitical disruption causes a shock in energy supply, which increases the cost of production worldwide. Agri-food industries are strongly influenced by tightly connected global value chains. Increased prices for upstream energy are disproportionately and directly transferred to downstream agricultural businesses and consumers, as modern agriculture is fully dependent on energy-intensive inputs, such as heavy machinery, industrial fertilizers, and extensive transport systems (Woods et al., 2010). As a result, countries reliant on imports are exposed to the immediate threat of food shortages. If left unaddressed, this situation will escalate into a global food security crisis and could threaten the predicted 3.3% world economic growth for 2026 (IMF, 2026a).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eScholars have primarily used traditional econometric methods to analyze inflation dynamics such as Linear Regression, Panel Data and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models (Clements \u0026amp; Hendry, 2008; Bazzaoui \u0026amp; Nagayasu, 2021; Hmadouch, 2025). These methods are excellent for estimating overall inflation trends and impacts, but they fail to provide insight into the complex interdependencies involved in the transmission of rising upstream energy prices to the downstream agri-food sector. Moreover, the existing literature predominantly focuses on countries that obviously suffer from vulnerabilities to external shocks and lacks a focus on potential \u0026lsquo;safe-haven\u0026rsquo; countries where capital flows into regions perceived as safe can cause unique inflationary or appreciation pressures on local currencies. This is compounded by a lack of research on the mechanisms through which global energy disruptions affect the agri-food sector in these safe-haven countries (Guerrero Sierra et al., 2024; Zgurovsky et al., 2022; Rajnovic \u0026amp; Cico, 2024). This limits the development of comparative frameworks, leading to a partial understanding of global economic resilience and hindering a more comprehensive explanation of capital outflow patterns.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis study applied Input-Output (I-O) analysis to assess the impact of energy price shocks across 37 safe-haven countries by focusing on the agri-food sector in order to address existing gaps and accurately reflect current geopolitical tensions. By employing I-O analysis, this study can trace how cost shocks on the supply side are transmitted to downstream industries and determine the extent to which inflationary pressures in energy-intensive sectors affect key downstream food security. Therefore, this study presents a transparent quantitative pillar for policymakers and assists global investors in distinguishing countries with real inflation resilience.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Research Methodology","content":"\u003cp\u003eData for this study is taken from the latest 2024 Asian Development Bank (ADB) I-O tables which cover 62 countries. A systematic exclusion procedure was utilized to produce a representative sample of investment climates that remain stable during geopolitical turmoil. By using the Henley Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index (Henley \u0026amp; Partners, 2026) as a quantifiable benchmark for risk and stability, countries experiencing military conflict, extreme domestic volatility, or the developmental impacts of destabilizing international sanctions were excluded. The systematic exclusion procedure resulted in a final selection of 37 countries which were considered as safe-haven. This selection was curated to ensure that the resulting findings provide an unbiased evaluation of each country\u0026rsquo;s internal economic resilience under uniform external price pressures.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo realistically trace current geopolitical threats, this empirical simulation modeled cost increases in energy-intensive industries across 37 countries. In particular, this study modeled a 1% cost increase in upstream energy-intensive industries. A 1% cost increase was chosen to represent current, persistent, and low-level geopolitical tensions. Through this specific shock, the simulation accurately quantifies the overall resilience of national economies to current volatility, as well as the inflationary pressures directly transmitted to downstream agri-food sectors.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, this study also employed the Ghosh price model to show how energy price shocks can be transmitted to sectoral industries. The Ghosh model is derived from classical I-O analysis and is specifically constructed as a supply-based accounting model, making it an optimal mathematical model to track how upstream cost-push inflation is transmitted through downstream industries (Dietzenbacher, 1997). It serves as a highly effective tool for policymakers who need to map the ripple effects of sudden cost escalations. In terms of its algebraic structure, the model is defined as:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg width=\"96\" height=\"20\" src=\"data:image/png;base64,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\" v:shapes=\"_x0000_i1025\" alt=\"image\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ewhere \u003cem\u003ep\u003c/em\u003e represents the vector of output price changes, \u003cem\u003ev\u003c/em\u003e denotes the initial exogenous shock, and (I \u0026minus; B)\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e is the Ghosh inverse matrix. This equation allows the study to systematically calculate how a targeted energy price shock raises final output prices across every sector of a national economy.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results and Discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable 1\u003c/strong\u003e shows the inflation rates of the 37 target safe-haven countries under simulated energy price shocks. The results indicate that the post-shock increase in inflation was minimal across all countries, reflecting a high degree of the stability. The resilience of the macroeconomic structures of these safe-haven countries can be further confirmed by comparing the baseline inflation rates with the estimated inflation rates after the shock.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAdvanced countries possess an extremely high degree of buffering ability with respect to energy price shocks. For instance, the United States\u0026apos; inflation rose marginally from 2.2% to 2.3%, while the United Kingdom\u0026apos;s inflation increased slightly to 2.07%, and Canada\u0026apos;s inflation increased marginally to 2.25%. These variations confirm that sudden explosions in energy prices do not result in large-scale or systemic inflationary pressures in advanced countries. This is because advanced countries have diversified their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) away from heavy manufacturing toward the services and e-commerce sectors. As a result, this creates a shock-absorbing effect for energy-related price shocks, which allows the entire economy to adjust to temporary increases in expenditures without experiencing extreme price instability.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, this robust buffering capacity is not confined to advanced countries. Structurally diverse emerging countries also show strong resilience to external energy price shocks. For example, Brazil\u0026apos;s inflation rose slightly from 3.7% to 3.85%, whereas Mexico\u0026apos;s increased from 3.0% to 3.16%. Even those emerging countries with inherently greater baseline volatility such as Mongolia demonstrated similarly small increases in inflation to 8.23% as well. Within the deterministic framework of the Ghosh model, this robust and consistent performance across sharply contrasting economic landscapes underscores the importance of domestic industrial buffering. Despite the outsized vulnerabilities of emerging countries as commodity exporters, their current domestic economic linkages effectively mitigate aggregate imported inflation, confirming that these are resilient macroeconomic environments.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDuring global instability, institutional investors typically search for safe-haven countries that can provide predictable costs, and they withdraw from countries with volatile and uncontrollable inflation (Ketkar \u0026amp; Ali Saleem, 2012). The findings of this study serve to create a qualitative roadmap for global investors. As shown in Table 1, these safe-haven countries successfully insulated their aggregate economies from the effects of rapid currency devaluation and systemic national inflation. As a result, worldwide investors are more willing to deploy capital and infrastructure projects in such safe-haven countries due to stable inflation, which provides the certainty needed to forecast future operating expenses.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNevertheless, these findings also act as a significant caution for both governments and institutional investors. Relying solely on national inflation statistics is fundamentally flawed when assessing actual socioeconomic threats. Policymakers might erroneously conclude that specific interventions are not needed because of the apparent economic stability suggested by the estimated inflation rate, thereby leading to a significant analytical blind spot. Meanwhile, there are significant systemic vulnerabilities within the agri-food sector despite apparent macroeconomic stability. This is because the agri-food sector lacks structural capacity and depends heavily on inflexible, energy-intensive inputs to withstand sudden external energy price shocks. Therefore, it is essential to investigate specific transmission pathways within the agri-food sector to fully understand the real risk of a geopolitical energy shock.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e1\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e: Baseline and Energy Shock Inflation Rates (%) by Country\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"100%\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCountry\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eInflation Rate by 2026\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Baseline)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eEstimated Inflation Rate 2026\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Energy Shock)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAustralia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.80\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.96\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAustria\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.10\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.18\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBelgium\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.10\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.16\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBhutan\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.70\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.93\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBrazil\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.70\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.85\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBrunei Darussalam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.60\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBulgaria\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.10\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCambodia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.80\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.94\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCanada\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.10\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.25\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eChina\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.80\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.02\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCroatia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.40\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.47\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCyprus\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.04\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDenmark\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.90\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eEstonia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.70\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.76\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFiji\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.50\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.57\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFinland\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.10\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.20\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIndonesia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.60\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.82\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIreland\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.70\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.82\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eKyrgyz Republic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6.13\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLatvia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.50\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.58\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLithuania\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.80\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.90\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLuxembourg\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.20\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.22\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMalaysia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.18\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMaldives\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.05\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMalta\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.10\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.13\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMexico\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.16\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMongolia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e8.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e8.23\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNepal\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.10\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.20\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNorway\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.22\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSingapore\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.30\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.37\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSlovak Republic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.70\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.79\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSlovenia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.20\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.29\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSweden\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.80\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.88\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSwitzerland\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.60\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.69\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eUnited Kingdom\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.00\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.07\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eUnited States\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.20\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.30\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 24px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eVietnam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.20\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 37px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.35\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eNote: Inflation Rate by 2026 acts as the comparative benchmark (IMF,\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e2026b\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable 2\u003c/strong\u003e illustrates the underlying linkages of the energy shock, revealing how it universally triggers inflationary ripple effects throughout the agri-food sector. An examination of the agri-food sector reveals a direct mechanical connection through which simulated energy price increases are transmitted to downstream food prices. Although these percentage increments appear mathematically small, they represent a substantial and direct transfer of price pressure from energy suppliers to food producers. The I-O framework effectively captures this precise flow, demonstrating that upstream energy bottlenecks ultimately shape downstream consumer realities.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe United States\u0026apos; agricultural sector absorbed a 0.088% inflation increment, while the food and beverage sector increased by 0.096%. Empirical results trace these shifts directly to massive upstream dependencies, registering extreme price transmission in electricity generation at 0.824% and mining at 0.706%. China also displays identical transmission mechanisms, where its food supply absorbed a 0.078% increase, linking directly to a 0.693% surge in its mining sector. Because modern farms require electricity and logistics networks demand fuel, any rise in global energy prices immediately elevates the operational costs of agricultural machinery. Within the deterministic structure of the Ghosh model, these upstream expenses mechanically transfer to retail consumers, thereby proving that modern supply chains function as direct conduits for geopolitical frictions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMoreover, the modern agri-food sector depends heavily on fossil fuels because reliable agri-food production requires mechanized farming, chemical fertilizers, and constant inland transport (Treadwell et al., 2024). Table 2 accurately maps this dependency. Mexico records a 0.045% inflation increase in agriculture, which is a direct result of high price spikes in electricity generation (0.758%) and mining (0.741%). Indonesia presents a parallel mechanism, where an agricultural inflation increase of 0.013% stems from massive exposure in mining (0.870%) and refined petroleum (0.825%). Ultimately, the energy sector fundamentally dictates agricultural output costs, proving that fossil fuel dependency structurally guarantees food inflation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eImportantly, geographic and infrastructural limitations exacerbate this systemic dependency. For example, Bhutan recorded a 0.008% increase in agriculture and a 0.033% increase in the food and beverage sector. This vulnerability mirrors its extreme price transmission in electricity supply (0.873%) and mining (0.620%), because limited domestic production forces a high reliance on specific external energy inputs. These upstream bottlenecks dictate downstream food prices and pose serious socioeconomic risks. A country might report highly stable national inflation, yet its most vulnerable citizens could face a severe crisis in accessing food.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNotably, certain countries have effectively severed the connection between energy and food, successfully insulating their agricultural systems. For instance, Ireland recorded a 0.015% increase in agriculture and a mere 0.012% in food and beverage production, while Luxembourg demonstrated identical structural resilience, recording an agricultural increase of 0.015%. Malta protects its agricultural sectors by maintaining exceptionally low price transmission in upstream sectors, with its mining increase at a remarkably low 0.081% and refined petroleum registering at just 0.100%. This resilience reflects highly efficient, localized supply chains that neutralize external price shocks before geopolitical frictions reach the retail consumer. These countries absorb external cost spikes efficiently and weather global disruptions without relying on widespread government consumer subsidies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese empirical findings fundamentally redefine strategic planning for both governments and institutional investors. Institutional investors actively seek countries demonstrating a dual-layered structural defense, comprising both macro-level inflation anchoring and micro-level supply chain isolation. Consequently, countries exhibiting stable inflation alongside decoupled agricultural supply chains offer optimal destinations for long-term capital allocation, as they protect investments against sustained global frictions. The I-O framework confirms this unique standing by demonstrating that substantive economic resilience requires both broad national stability and localized network insulation. By identifying countries that successfully sever the energy-to-food transmission belt, global investors can secure robust infrastructure returns regardless of ongoing geopolitical instability.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e2\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e: Simulated Inflationary Increments (%) in Agri-Food and Upstream Energy-Intensive Sectors\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"100%\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"11\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 89px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIncrement of Inflation Rate (%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 16px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAgri-Food Sectors\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd nowrap=\"\" colspan=\"9\" valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 73px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eEnergy Intensive Sectors\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCountry\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAgriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFood, beverage, tobacco\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMining and quarrying\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCoke, refined petroleum, nuclear fuel\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eElectricity, gas, water supply\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eChemicals and chemical products\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eOther nonmetallic minerals\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBasic metals and fabricated metals\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eInland transport\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWater transport\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAir transport\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAustralia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.059\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.074\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.752\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.275\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.564\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.514\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.556\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.622\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.545\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.578\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.249\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAustria\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.021\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.027\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.713\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.168\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.210\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.283\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.377\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.344\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.544\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.411\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.322\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBelgium\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.019\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.023\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.387\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.083\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.466\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.340\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.363\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.203\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.458\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.278\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.088\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBhutan\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.008\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.033\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.620\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.873\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.610\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.619\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.596\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.678\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.354\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBrazil\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.081\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.090\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.493\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.326\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.630\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.367\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.486\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.535\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.556\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.492\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.406\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBrunei Darussalam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.029\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.016\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.721\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.542\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.659\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.644\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.339\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.491\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.703\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.644\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.451\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBulgaria\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.023\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.032\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.616\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.187\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.481\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.406\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.396\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.268\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.339\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.405\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.269\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCambodia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.022\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.083\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.729\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.260\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.246\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.556\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.641\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.572\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.588\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCanada\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.083\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.076\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.632\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.509\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.863\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.482\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.553\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.373\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.696\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.571\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.575\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eChina\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.065\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.078\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.693\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.538\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.610\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.497\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.583\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.534\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.571\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.513\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.391\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCroatia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.010\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.016\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.501\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.319\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.253\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.382\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.347\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.393\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.424\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.500\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.201\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCyprus\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.021\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.015\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.354\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.584\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.243\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.447\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.344\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.317\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.396\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.265\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-0.143\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDenmark\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.022\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.038\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.778\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.430\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.315\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.605\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.483\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.407\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.489\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.178\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.207\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eEstonia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.024\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.020\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.531\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.304\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.521\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.259\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.361\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.330\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.407\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.383\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.141\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFiji\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.015\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.019\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.442\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.378\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.426\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.425\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.368\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.347\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.231\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.269\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFinland\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.034\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.055\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.475\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.163\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.567\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.395\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.446\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.336\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.471\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.308\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.266\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIndonesia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.013\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.030\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.870\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.825\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.599\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.558\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.678\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.659\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.638\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.455\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.458\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIreland\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.015\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.012\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.656\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.754\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.286\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.580\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.434\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.360\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.673\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.135\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.170\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eKyrgyz Republic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.009\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.028\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.346\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.509\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.494\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.480\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.411\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.730\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.493\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.696\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.329\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLatvia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.031\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.025\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.514\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.443\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.380\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.307\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.343\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.283\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.463\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.420\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.094\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLithuania\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.035\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.023\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.467\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.154\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.513\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.306\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.377\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.351\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.505\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.571\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.250\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLuxembourg\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.015\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.014\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.466\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.629\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.151\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.102\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.150\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.598\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.293\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.311\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMalaysia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.031\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.089\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.829\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.616\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.599\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.482\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.491\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.382\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.567\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.409\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.256\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMaldives\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.007\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.039\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.347\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.295\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.433\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.455\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.375\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.359\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMalta\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.024\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.028\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.081\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.100\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.258\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.441\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.383\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.321\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.355\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.170\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.095\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMexico\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.045\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.054\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.741\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.725\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.758\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.468\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.575\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.473\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.734\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.569\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.461\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMongolia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.026\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.062\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.518\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.338\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.453\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.248\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.347\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.431\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.223\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.401\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.167\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNepal\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.020\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.050\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.804\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.542\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.431\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.374\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.407\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.199\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.490\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.463\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNorway\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.042\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.057\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.861\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.541\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.808\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.671\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.566\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.439\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.341\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.320\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.311\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSingapore\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.110\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.046\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.083\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.501\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.449\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.274\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.368\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.539\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.234\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.119\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSlovak Republic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.012\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.028\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.424\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.199\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.431\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.230\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.385\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.322\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.512\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.538\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.385\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSlovenia\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.011\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.031\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.412\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.477\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.520\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.404\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.404\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.338\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.421\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.371\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.446\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSweden\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.074\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.053\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.598\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.140\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.578\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.450\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.350\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.374\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.528\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.384\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.065\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSwitzerland\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.028\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.032\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.446\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.151\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.412\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.270\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.395\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.433\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.531\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.239\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.137\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eUnited Kingdom\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.046\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.057\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.700\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.258\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.306\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.452\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.485\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.478\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.443\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.396\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.187\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eUnited States\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.088\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.096\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.706\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.534\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.824\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.652\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.653\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.529\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.553\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.389\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.642\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 10px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eVietnam\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.027\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.036\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.665\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.520\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.843\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.316\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 9px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.513\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.403\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.485\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 7px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.440\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd style=\"width: 8px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.249\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eNote: N/A indicates that sector data was unavailable for this country in the ADB database\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"4. Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eGeopolitical conflicts inevitably trigger global energy volatility. By applying I-O analysis across 37 safe-haven countries, this study confirms that the underlying risk of energy price shocks lies not merely in driving up national inflation, but in amplifying cost transmission pathways within domestic production structures. Under simulated external energy shocks, the estimated inflation rates of the target countries after the energy price shock largely remained close to baseline inflation; for example, the United States\u0026apos; inflation rate rose only slightly from 2.2% to 2.3%. However, the stability of these macroeconomic indicators (inflation rates) does not imply systemic security. On the contrary, it actively conceals accumulating pressures within the agri-food sector. When upstream energy costs mechanically permeate the agri-food sector through established industrial networks, final retail food prices cease to be a singular macroeconomic outcome and instead become a direct reflection of underlying structural vulnerabilities. This implies that robust inflation analytics must transcend aggregate metrics to thoroughly examine specific inter-sectoral dependencies. Internal structural disparities dictate not only short-term price fluctuations within agri-food sector but also long-term socioeconomic resilience. Consequently, cost-push inflation must be redefined not merely as a macroeconomic phenomenon, but as a direct manifestation of industrial structural rigidities. This structural perspective provides a precise analytical foundation for economic governance. Effective policy does not lie in expanding broad-based fiscal subsidies to households, which merely stimulates demand without resolving fundamental bottlenecks, but rather in identifying and severing key supply-side transmission nodes. In the short term, governments must implement \u003cs\u003etargeted\u0026nbsp;\u003c/s\u003estrategic interventions, such as subsidizing specific fuels used in agricultural distribution or capping rural electricity prices. Although such targeted price caps may cause temporary market distortions, they serve as essential economic \u0026ldquo;circuit breakers\u0026rdquo; to protect vulnerable demographics from severe food insecurity. However, long-term structural resilience requires sustained decoupling through strategic investments in renewable energy infrastructure and highly efficient, localized distribution networks. Restructuring the deep interdependence between fossil fuels and agri-food production is a crucial step to prevent external input shocks from triggering domestic food crises, while simultaneously advancing Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2: Zero Hunger. Simultaneously, these empirical findings refine the strategic blueprint for global capital allocation. Institutional investors are actively seeking investment destinations that offer dual structural defenses at both the macro (inflation anchoring) and micro (supply chain decoupling) levels. Countries that successfully sever the transmission belt between global energy markets and domestic agricultural output will secure long-term investment appeal, guaranteeing robust infrastructure returns regardless of ongoing international geopolitical turbulence.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor contribution:\u003c/strong\u003e C.S.Y was involved in paper writing and analysis. C.C.Y contributed to idea development, methodology and paper refinement. Z.A.M.A played the role in proof-reading and reviewing the paper.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding\u003c/strong\u003e: The study was funded by an International Grant (grant no. IF078-2022) from the Singapore Food Agency where the grant was awarded to the corresponding author\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eData availability:\u003c/strong\u003e No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompeting Interests:\u003c/strong\u003e The authors declare no competing interests.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBazzaoui, L., \u0026amp; Nagayasu, J. (2021). Is Inflation Fiscally Determined? \u003cem\u003eSustainability, 13\u003c/em\u003e(20), 11306. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011306 \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eClements, M. P., \u0026amp; Hendry, D. F. (2008). Forecasting annual UK inflation using an econometric model over 1875\u0026ndash;1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-8715(07)00201-1 \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eDietzenbacher, E. (1997). In vindication of the Ghosh model: a reinterpretation as a price model\u003cem\u003e. Journal of regional science, 37\u003c/em\u003e(4), 629-651. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-4146.00073 \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eGuerrero Sierra, H. F., Hern\u0026aacute;ndez P\u0026eacute;rez, M., \u0026amp; Rojas Mora, J. E. (2024). Geopolitical shocks and global value chains: an estimation by autoregressive vectors. \u003cem\u003eRevista Cient\u0026iacute;fica General Jos\u0026eacute; Mar\u0026iacute;a C\u0026oacute;rdova, 22\u003c/em\u003e(47), 739-754. https://doi.org/10.21830/19006586.1378 \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eHenley \u0026amp; Partners. 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D., ... \u0026amp; Michaux, S. P. (2024). Transitioning away from fossil fuels will drive repositioning of horticulture. \u003cem\u003eHortScience\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003e59\u003c/em\u003e(5), 561-564. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI17724-24 \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eWoods, J., Williams, A., Hughes, J. K., Black, M., \u0026amp; Murphy, R. (2010). Energy and the food system. \u003cem\u003ePhilosophical transactions of the Royal society B: Biological Sciences\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003e365\u003c/em\u003e(1554), 2991-3006. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0172 \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eZgurovsky, M., Kravchenko, M., Boiarynova, K., Kopishynska, K., \u0026amp; Pyshnograiev, I. (2022, October). The energy independence of the European countries: Consequences of the Russia\u0026rsquo;s military invasion of Ukraine. In 2022 IEEE 3rd International Conference on System Analysis \u0026amp; Intelligent Computing (SAIC) (pp. 1-4). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/SAIC57818.2022.9923004 \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Energy Price Shock, Ghosh Input-Output Price Model, Inflation, Safe-haven","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9291002/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9291002/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe 2026 military escalation in the Middle East has caused a shock to energy prices. This has threatened food security throughout the world. Most previous studies have lacked an explanation on how energy price shocks are transmitted to industrial sectors especially the agri-food sector as well as their impacts on \"safe-haven\" countries. Therefore, this study used the Ghosh Input-Output (I-O) Price Model to simulate the energy price shock in energy-intensive industries across 37 safe-haven countries. The findings show that most of the safe-haven countries\u0026rsquo; estimated inflation rates after the shock remain stable, but there are hidden vulnerabilities at the micro-level. The I-O model implies that energy price shocks in upstream sectors will be mechanically transmitted to the downstream agri-food sector; even a slight percentage point increase can disproportionately impact it. Conversely, certain safe-haven countries can insulate their agri-food production from such external energy price shock pressures by localizing their distribution networks. These findings suggest policymakers in transitioning away from consumer subsidy-based programs toward targeted supply-side intervention approaches, while at the same time providing institutional investors with a quantifiable framework for determining which investment destinations will prove resilient to continued geopolitical turbulence.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The Iran War Energy Shock: Input-Output Analysis of Agri-Food Inflation in Safe-Haven Countries","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-02 06:44:24","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9291002/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"cb72e634-fdc9-4872-90aa-1cf5378398ad","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 2nd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-04T01:38:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-02 06:44:24","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9291002","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9291002","identity":"rs-9291002","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}