Finding the Proportion of Females with Autistic Spectrum Disorder Who Develop Anorexia Nervosa, the True Prevalence of Female ASD and Its Clinical Significance.

It appears that up to 80% of females with autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) have not been diagnosed by 18 years of age. This translates to a prevalence of about 5-6%, and if true has serious implications for female mental health. One way of finding the true value is to use Bayes’ Theorem with a comorbid condition as a more easily recognizable flag. An obvious choice is anorexia nervosa (AN), but it transpires that the proportion of women with ASD who develop AN is unknown. This study uses published data in novel ways to provide two methods of estimating a range for this variable, and gives a median value of 8.3% for AN in ASD and with four other methods a median prevalence of 6% for female ASD. The clinical implications for diagnosis and management of ASD and comorbidities are discussed and a solution is provided for the rate of ASD in generalized joint hypermobility.