Methodology for evaluating biodiversity strategies - Analysis of the capacity to initiate transformative change - Application for the French National Strategy for Biodiversity 2022-2030 (SNB3) 

Abstract This paper is part of the emerging literature on transformative change, in line with the new Ipbes work program "Transformative Change Assessment". In France, the third National Strategy for Biodiversity (SNB3), published in 2022, is due to be one of the national declinations of the next global framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), of the European strategy for biodiversity, and was meant to be based on the scientific recommendations of Ipbes (1). The main question here is: Is it really the case? And how can we measure the effectiveness of this compliance? In this context, the French Foundation for Biodiversity Research (FRB) has carried out an assessment of the capacity of the SNB3 to initiate transformative change. This paper describes on one hand the two-steps assessment methodology of the leverage potential of the strategy’s measures, based on a robust and replicable independent scientific audit and a multi-criteria analysis (2). On the other hand, we present the majors results of the assessment in the case of SNB3 (3). Eventually, we discuss the scientific and practical interest of this type of exercise for policy makers in establishing strategies that are part of a transition process, allowing for real transformative changes in society (4). By analyzing all the measures and ranking them from the most efficient to the least efficient, this use-case reveals the strengths and weaknesses of a strategy by anticipating what would have and will not have an impact and points out what needs to be improved as a priority.