Variability of Ocean Features and their Impact on Cyclogenesis over Arabian Sea During Post Monsoon Season

Abstract Arabian Sea (AS), the western sector of North Indian Ocean (NIO) produce smaller number of tropical cyclones as compared to Bay of Bengal. Though limited in numbers, the cyclones over Arabian sea are catastrophic by character. This make west coast of Indian subcontinent vulnerable to these hazards. The post-monsoon cyclogenesis over this region is known to be modulated by both monsoon rainfall and the El-Niño accompanied with positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. No single phenomena, however, can fully explain the variability observed in AS region. In this study, it is observed that apart from several known atmospheric forcings, inter-annual variability of ocean heat content (OHC) influence the post-monsoon AS cyclogenesis. The OHC of this region is partially modulated by the changes in salinity. Heat exchanges between the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) and AS also modulates the OHC over AS. This remote influence is facilitated largely by the variability in the equatorial currents. Further it is seen that the recent trend of increased OHC post-2011 matches with the enhanced sea surface carbon over AS.