Representation gap for transition factors from social sciences in energy and emissions modeling

Representation gap for transition factors from social sciences in energy and emissions modeling | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Representation gap for transition factors from social sciences in energy and emissions modeling Sanni Kunnas, Evelina Trutnevyte This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8832559/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Policy-relevant assessments of energy and emissions projections in the context of climate change mostly rely on techno-economic modeling. Exploring what drives energy transitions from the perspective of social sciences can help improve the realism and relevance of projections and hence allow to build up the missing evidence base. Here, we review 43 social science theories and identify 24 transition factors that are relevant for energy and emissions projections. We then conduct a semi-systematic, machine-assisted review and derive a representation gap index to quantitatively rank how well these transition factors are covered in social scientific and in modeling literature. We identify which transition factors are not yet sufficiently covered in collaborations between social scientists and modelers and make recommendations for how to proceed. energy system models integrated assessment models techno-economic modeling socio-technical models interdisciplinary collaboration social sciences Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SIKunnasandTrutnevyte2026.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8832559","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":588451670,"identity":"29dc6c57-7401-414d-a29e-a521d194eadc","order_by":0,"name":"Sanni Kunnas","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCBCAEgw8MDDwgmploLYwziNbCANXCzAPl4tUi33722IMHDGmJ26WbH3+2bbsjI+/ewPi5AI8WgzN56QYJDDmJO+ccM5PObXvGY3jmALP0DHxaGHLMJBIYKhI33EgwY85tO8xjOCOBDe5CrA7rfwPTkv75syVIy/wH+LUw3ADbkgPUkmMgzQjUIi/BgF+LwQ2QLQZpxkAtZZI95w7zGPAkNkvjd1iOmeSPimRZoMM2f/hRdthevv3wwc94HQaxC5l9gLGBoAY0e0nVMApGwSgYBcMeAAD5AknLDEUI7AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3971-0664","institution":"Renewable Energy Systems, Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), University of Geneva","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sanni","middleName":"","lastName":"Kunnas","suffix":""},{"id":588452080,"identity":"7b10bc17-926c-4e9a-9bf2-0e5d3d0c1e2d","order_by":1,"name":"Evelina Trutnevyte","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1716-6192","institution":"Renewable Energy Systems, Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), University of Geneva","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Evelina","middleName":"","lastName":"Trutnevyte","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-09 16:16:47","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8832559/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8832559/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102397556,"identity":"f6842aef-17ad-4d92-990c-542db31bce23","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-11 10:18:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":525640,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"KunnasandTrutnevyte2026.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8832559/v1_covered_adca1ee1-27c1-4d87-b74e-22e37f28c3b5.pdf"},{"id":102310599,"identity":"99546fbf-665d-48d6-9af4-ad7eabecf07b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-10 11:55:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":922741,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSupplementary Information\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"SIKunnasandTrutnevyte2026.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8832559/v1/7efbef7f40252cd5ca8b4d05.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eRepresentation gap for transition factors from social sciences in energy and emissions modeling\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"University of Geneva","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"energy system models, integrated assessment models, techno-economic modeling, socio-technical models, interdisciplinary collaboration, social sciences","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8832559/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8832559/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003ePolicy-relevant assessments of energy and emissions projections in the context of climate change mostly rely on techno-economic modeling. 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