A Simulation Study on Urban Community Vulnerability under Wind Disaster Scenarios: Governance Implications from Chinese Communities

A Simulation Study on Urban Community Vulnerability under Wind Disaster Scenarios: Governance Implications from Chinese Communities | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article A Simulation Study on Urban Community Vulnerability under Wind Disaster Scenarios: Governance Implications from Chinese Communities Ze Huang, Yuxuan He, Yan Fu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9245257/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Currently, frequent wind disasters pose severe challenges to urban communities, yet existing studies inadequately capture the internal behavioral interactions within communities and the processes of disaster impact. To address this issue, this paper takes urban communities as the research object and introduces an agent-based modeling approach to simulate and analyze community wind disaster scenarios. Using the Anylogic platform, a community agent-based model is constructed, in which factors influencing community vulnerability are transformed into model parameters. Through the behavioral interactions among three types of agents—residents, buildings, and community workers—the community evacuation process and the evolution of vulnerability under wind disaster scenarios are simulated. Using Community J in China as a case study, a simulation analysis is conducted, and key influencing factors are identified through orthogonal experiments. The results show that the proportion of residents with high risk aversion awareness and the carrying capability of community workers have the most significant effects on the community vulnerability index. For older adult communities, efforts should focus on enhancing the organizational coordination and emergency management capabilities of community workers. For youth communities, greater emphasis should be placed on strengthening residents’ risk perception abilities and cultivating risk aversion awareness. Through dynamic simulation, this study incorporates community workers with Chinese characteristics into the agent-based model, designs orthogonal experiments to identify key factors affecting community vulnerability, and proposes targeted strategies to reduce vulnerability in different community contexts, providing policy recommendations for urban emergency governance and disaster prevention in China. Humanities/Complex networks Social science/Complex networks Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Social science/Environmental studies Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Social science/Social policy community vulnerability agent-based model urban community social governance Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 09 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 05 May, 2026 Editor invited by journal 05 May, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 27 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 15 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 15 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9245257","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":637276921,"identity":"90594394-4f9b-45d6-9abb-b089b44ec7ec","order_by":0,"name":"Ze Huang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ze","middleName":"","lastName":"Huang","suffix":""},{"id":637276922,"identity":"be1237a1-39cc-491b-9f08-d7e98d3c52c9","order_by":1,"name":"Yuxuan He","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuxuan","middleName":"","lastName":"He","suffix":""},{"id":637276923,"identity":"713529a4-5698-4b21-a4c3-2308f22fa6c1","order_by":2,"name":"Yan Fu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYQaWAjx8be+ADE5OEjpIXnAIgsSDPm4zlsABZgI07Lh8OJ8ySSwVoYCGuRyDH8XGBw2JhN8jHjY94cOxk2BuaHj27g12IsPcMgXY5NOpnZcOa2ZKDD2IyNc/BosZfIMZDmMbA2ZpPOPybxcRszUAsPmzQ+LSBbfvMYMCe2SR5mk0jcVk+UFjOgLc6JbRLMbEBbDhOhhedZmTWPQZoxGw/YL8d52JgJ+IWHPXnzbZ4/NnLy7YeBIbat2p6fvfnhY3xaGBg4DNAEmPEqBwH2BwSVjIJRMApGwQgHANN1Ol1FzpBbAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yan","middleName":"","lastName":"Fu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-27 13:32:57","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9245257/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9245257/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109217184,"identity":"b6c76e7c-4dc2-48fb-a5f6-d3869ce3eee0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-13 18:09:48","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":931216,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ASimulationStudyonUrbanCommunityVulnerabilityunderWindDisasterScenariosGovernanceImplicationsfromChineseCommunities.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9245257/v1_covered_23d3fa39-56ab-4d77-bbb7-051fe87d8770.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Simulation Study on Urban Community Vulnerability under Wind Disaster Scenarios: Governance Implications from Chinese Communities","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"community vulnerability, agent-based model, urban community, social governance","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9245257/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9245257/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eCurrently, frequent wind disasters pose severe challenges to urban communities, yet existing studies inadequately capture the internal behavioral interactions within communities and the processes of disaster impact. To address this issue, this paper takes urban communities as the research object and introduces an agent-based modeling approach to simulate and analyze community wind disaster scenarios. Using the Anylogic platform, a community agent-based model is constructed, in which factors influencing community vulnerability are transformed into model parameters. Through the behavioral interactions among three types of agents\u0026mdash;residents, buildings, and community workers\u0026mdash;the community evacuation process and the evolution of vulnerability under wind disaster scenarios are simulated. Using Community J in China as a case study, a simulation analysis is conducted, and key influencing factors are identified through orthogonal experiments. The results show that the proportion of residents with high risk aversion awareness and the carrying capability of community workers have the most significant effects on the community vulnerability index. 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