Influence Factors of Peripheral Intravenous Catheter Occlusion in Cancer Patients: Developing a Prediction Model

Purpose: This study explores the risk factors of peripheral intravenous catheter occlusion in cancer patients and establishes a nomogram prediction model for the risk of peripheral intravenous catheter occlusion. Methods: : In this prospective study, 243 patients from multiple centers were included in the prediction model. The subset of influencing factors of peripheral intravenous catheter occlusion in cancer patients was obtained by LASSO regression 10-fold cross validation. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to determine the predictive factors of the risk of such patients, and a nomogram prediction model was drawn. The ROC curve was utilized to evaluate the predictive ability of the model. The bootstrap method was utilized for internal validation and the C-index was calculated to evaluate the discrimination ability of the model. The calibration curve was drawn to evaluate the calibration of the model. Results: LASSO-logistic regression analysis showed that nurses’access to peripheral venous catheter maintenance (OR=9.269), patient gender (OR=2.627), number of complications (OR=2.005), and indwelling time of indwelling needle (OR=1.021) were the risk factors of venous indwelling needle blockage in tumor patients. The nomogram model was constructed based on the above risk factors, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.729% (95% CI: 0.657 ~ 0.801), and the C-index after internal verification was 0.712%. The calibration curve shows that the predicted results are in good agreement with the actual results. Conclusion: The prediction model has good prediction efficiency, which can provide reference for clinical nurses to identify the high-risk groups of indwelling needle blockage and formulate targeted intervention measures.