Thermal suppression of gametogenesis can explain historical collapses in larval recruitment

Projections for population viability under climate change are often made using estimates of thermal lethal thresholds. These estimates vary across life history stages and can be valuable for explaining or forecasting shifts in population viability. However, sublethal temperatures can also depress vital rates and shape fluctuations in the reproductive viability of populations. For example, heatwaves may suppress reproduction, leading to recruitment failure before lethal temperatures are reached. Despite a growing awareness of this issue, tying sublethal effects to observed recruitment failure remains a challenge especially in marine environments. We experimentally show that sublethal suppression of female gametogenesis by marine heatwaves can partially explain historical collapses in urchin recruitment. This response differed by sex but was similar between animals from warmer or cooler regions of their range. Overall, we show sublethal thermal sensitivities of reproduction can narrow the thermal envelope for population viability compared to predictions from lethal limits.