Observed pattern effect contribution to recent warming from reduced aerosol emissions

Observed pattern effect contribution to recent warming from reduced aerosol emissions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Observed pattern effect contribution to recent warming from reduced aerosol emissions Shunlin Liang, Jianglei Xu, Han Ma, Yongzhe Chen, Wenyuan Li, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9305170/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global surface warming has accelerated since around 20111, 2, 3. Earth system models indicated the contributions of reduced aerosol emissions from East Asia to recent greater warming4. An observed analysis attributed the temperature surge to record-low planetary albedo due mainly to reduced low-cloud cover over the North Pacific (NP)5. However, it is undetermined how much of the reduced low-cloud cover arises from internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or cloud feedback, leaving the basic forcing for the acceleration unclear. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we show that increased spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature (SST) warming largely accelerated global warming rate (0.12 ± 0.06 ℃/decade) through the pattern effect of SST. Reduced aerosol emissions from East Asia caused anomalous warming in eastern NP by triggering warm blob events in the Northeast Pacific6 and affecting the trends in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase7 through atmosphere teleconnections. These processes enhanced the pattern effect of SST (0.73 ± 0.08 Wm-2/decade). The enhanced pattern effect accelerated global surface warming by affecting thermal radiative feedback rather than aerosol radiative forcing that yields relatively little net global impact (0.23 ± 0.07 Wm-2/decade). Approximately 92% of the observed reduction in low-cloud cover is subsequently caused by cloud shortwave feedback responding to increased surface temperature, yielding an increased Earth energy imbalance (0.43 ± 0.34 Wm-2decade-1) due to more absorbed solar radiation. This underlines the importance of understanding aerosol radiative forcing and their derivative effects to avoid any detrimental climate consequences from the air quality policies of countries. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Attribution Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementary.pdf Supplementary material for the manuscript Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9305170","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":621025636,"identity":"ef013ec9-9d88-4ada-b53f-74e25387952e","order_by":0,"name":"Shunlin 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Earth system models indicated the contributions of reduced aerosol emissions from East Asia to recent greater warming4. An observed analysis attributed the temperature surge to record-low planetary albedo due mainly to reduced low-cloud cover over the North Pacific (NP)5. However, it is undetermined how much of the reduced low-cloud cover arises from internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or cloud feedback, leaving the basic forcing for the acceleration unclear. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we show that increased spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature (SST) warming largely accelerated global warming rate (0.12 ± 0.06 ℃/decade) through the pattern effect of SST. Reduced aerosol emissions from East Asia caused anomalous warming in eastern NP by triggering warm blob events in the Northeast Pacific6 and affecting the trends in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase7 through atmosphere teleconnections. 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