ENSO diversity in climate models within the recharge oscillator framework

ENSO diversity in climate models within the recharge oscillator framework | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article ENSO diversity in climate models within the recharge oscillator framework Priyamvada Priya, Dietmar Dommenget This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7378605/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study is focused on analysing the phase space dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for two different types of ENSO, Eastern Pacific ( EP ) and Central Pacific ( CP ) against the thermocline depth ( h ) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) 5 and 6 model simulations. We find that the CMIP models are capable of simulating the different dynamics between EP and CP variability, with weaker interaction between CP and h as compared to EP and h , suggesting that EP is more dynamically coupled to h than CP , as it is observed. CMIP models reproduce the faster phase transition speed for EP , whereas, for CP , they replicate the weaker or slower observed phase transitions. However, CMIP model ensembles have substantial limitations and reproduce most observed characteristics with much weaker intensities, resulting into ENSO variability that is less diverse in the large-scale variability than observed. We further find that the interactions with the thermocline depth is dynamically shifted to the east, which is in particular affecting the interactions for CP dynamics. There is also a large spread within the model ensemble, with only a few CMIP models accurately simulating the observed asymmetry of the ENSO phase space for EP and CP . Further, we found no significant improvement from CMIP 5 to CMIP 6 models in simulating the observed phase space dynamics of ENSO diversity. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity Recharge oscillator (ReOsc) model Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) CMIP models (CMIP5 and CMIP6) Phase space dynamics Full Text Supplementary Files supplementaryfigurescmipepcppaper.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7378605","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":506409415,"identity":"1339d382-8512-4a96-96bf-a93c52eb0631","order_by":0,"name":"Priyamvada Priya","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1285-8093","institution":"Monash University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Priyamvada","middleName":"","lastName":"Priya","suffix":""},{"id":506409416,"identity":"f3d69afa-44d7-413d-b5b3-104a2c6b4133","order_by":1,"name":"Dietmar Dommenget","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Monash University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dietmar","middleName":"","lastName":"Dommenget","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-15 05:44:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7378605/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7378605/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109865169,"identity":"a1fded51-96a4-490e-be45-953f9aa7b958","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-24 09:25:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1689728,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"cmipepcppaperfinal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7378605/v1_covered_d4b38cfe-c4ac-43ca-b77d-fa467c183a03.pdf"},{"id":90470209,"identity":"bebb1c0d-5453-462b-8d0e-d43c7a5e88e4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-03 06:13:54","extension":"docx","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":3176490,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"supplementaryfigurescmipepcppaper.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7378605/v1/5e3977f71248bb8e6ca0c584.docx"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"ENSO diversity in climate models within the recharge oscillator framework","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity, Recharge oscillator (ReOsc) model, Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP), CMIP models (CMIP5 and CMIP6), Phase space dynamics","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7378605/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7378605/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study is focused on analysing the phase space dynamics of the El Ni\u0026ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for two different types of ENSO, Eastern Pacific (\u003cb\u003eEP\u003c/b\u003e) and Central Pacific (\u003cb\u003eCP\u003c/b\u003e) against the thermocline depth (\u003cb\u003eh\u003c/b\u003e) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) 5 and 6 model simulations. We find that the CMIP models are capable of simulating the different dynamics between \u003cb\u003eEP\u003c/b\u003e and \u003cb\u003eCP\u003c/b\u003e variability, with weaker interaction between \u003cb\u003eCP\u003c/b\u003e and \u003cb\u003eh\u003c/b\u003e as compared to \u003cb\u003eEP\u003c/b\u003e and \u003cb\u003eh\u003c/b\u003e, suggesting that \u003cb\u003eEP\u003c/b\u003e is more dynamically coupled to \u003cb\u003eh\u003c/b\u003e than \u003cb\u003eCP\u003c/b\u003e, as it is observed. CMIP models reproduce the faster phase transition speed for \u003cb\u003eEP\u003c/b\u003e, whereas, for \u003cb\u003eCP\u003c/b\u003e, they replicate the weaker or slower observed phase transitions. However, CMIP model ensembles have substantial limitations and reproduce most observed characteristics with much weaker intensities, resulting into ENSO variability that is less diverse in the large-scale variability than observed. We further find that the interactions with the thermocline depth is dynamically shifted to the east, which is in particular affecting the interactions for \u003cb\u003eCP\u003c/b\u003e dynamics. There is also a large spread within the model ensemble, with only a few CMIP models accurately simulating the observed asymmetry of the ENSO phase space for \u003cb\u003eEP\u003c/b\u003e and \u003cb\u003eCP\u003c/b\u003e. Further, we found no significant improvement from CMIP 5 to CMIP 6 models in simulating the observed phase space dynamics of ENSO diversity.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"ENSO diversity in climate models within the recharge oscillator framework","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-03 06:13:49","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7378605/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"3f8ed283-018a-46dc-9917-a0124c035854","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 3rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-24T09:25:16+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-03 06:13:49","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7378605","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7378605","identity":"rs-7378605","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}