Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress

Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress Yi Yao, Yusuke Satoh, Nicole van Maanen, Sabin Taranu, Jessica Keune, and 12 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6121279/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Oct, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Irrigation has been investigated as an important historical climate forcing, but there is no study exploring its climatic impacts in future with possible changes in both extent and efficiency considered. Here we address these issues via developing irrigation efficiency scenarios in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), implementing these in the Community Earth System Model, and applying them to generate projections over the period 2015-2074. We project that annual irrigation water withdrawal decreases under SSP1-2.6 (from ~2100 to ~1700 km 3 yr -1 ) but increases under SSP3-7.0 (to ~2400 km 3 yr -1 ), with some new irrigation hot spots emerging, especially in Africa. Irrigation is projected to reduce the occurrence of dry-heat stress under both scenarios, but cannot reverse the warming trend due to greenhouse gas emission (e.g., only masking 35-50% of the increasing hours in intensely irrigated areas). Moreover, moist-heat extreme event frequency increase more substantially (by ≥ 1600 hours yr -1 under SSP3-7.0 in tropical regions), and irrigation further increases them (for example by ≥ 100, contributing to an increase of 200-400 hours yr -1 by all forcings), thereby raising the risk of moist-heat-related illnesses and mortality for exposed communities. Our results underscore the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, limiting irrigation expansion and improving irrigation efficiency to preserve water resources and decelerate escalating exposure to moist-heat stress. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Oct, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6121279","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":433649976,"identity":"f30f149d-aae3-499e-a83c-ebed643cadb7","order_by":0,"name":"Yi 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Here we address these issues via developing irrigation efficiency scenarios in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), implementing these in the Community Earth System Model, and applying them to generate projections over the period 2015-2074. We project that annual irrigation water withdrawal decreases under SSP1-2.6 (from ~2100 to ~1700 km\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e yr\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e) but increases under SSP3-7.0 (to ~2400 km\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e yr\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e), with some new irrigation hot spots emerging, especially in Africa. Irrigation is projected to reduce the occurrence of dry-heat stress under both scenarios, but cannot reverse the warming trend due to greenhouse gas emission (e.g., only masking 35-50% of the increasing hours in intensely irrigated areas). Moreover, moist-heat extreme event frequency increase more substantially (by ≥ 1600 hours yr\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e under SSP3-7.0 in tropical regions), and irrigation further increases them (for example by ≥ 100, contributing to an increase of 200-400 hours yr\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e by all forcings), thereby raising the risk of moist-heat-related illnesses and mortality for exposed communities. Our results underscore the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, limiting irrigation expansion and improving irrigation efficiency to preserve water resources and decelerate escalating exposure to moist-heat stress.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-03-26 04:10:17","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6121279/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"40f8e3e1-a108-4757-8586-78f7cef7b149","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 26th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":46173824,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"},{"id":46173825,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling"},{"id":46173826,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-23T07:09:05+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6121279","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64375-1","journal":{"identity":"nature-communications","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Nature Communications"},"publishedOn":"2025-10-22 04:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"October 22nd, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-03-26 04:10:17","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41467-025-64375-1","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64375-1","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6121279","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6121279","identity":"rs-6121279","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}