Modelling of Gambling Information Spread and Public Health Risks in Namibia’s Zambezi Region

Modelling of Gambling Information Spread and Public Health Risks in Namibia’s Zambezi Region | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Modelling of Gambling Information Spread and Public Health Risks in Namibia’s Zambezi Region Markus S Mandume, Samuel M Nuugulu, Albert Shikongo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8988254/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The prevalence of gambling in Namibia’s Zambezi Region poses a growing public health and socioeconomic challenge, affecting individuals, families, and community cohesion. This study develops a mathematical model to examine gambling information processes and their influence on consumer risk behavior under two scenarios: a controlled case without excessive gamblers and an excessive case where such behavior is present. For each scenario, the basic reproduction number is derived to assess propagation thresholds and the need for intervention. The resulting reaction--diffusion system is solved using the implicit Euler method, selected for its stability and convergence properties. Results indicate that repeated exposure to gambling-related information can intensify harmful gambling, while targeted regulation of information flows can mitigate risk. Numerical stability is achieved at Δ t = 0.01, confirming the robustness of the approach and providing quantitative support for policy interventions in the Zambezi Region. Health sciences/Diseases Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Health sciences/Risk factors Gambling information processes Asymptotic stability analysis Implicit Euler method Gambling harm reduction Zambezi region Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 18 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 06 May, 2026 Editor invited by journal 23 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 28 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 28 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 27 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8988254","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":639234336,"identity":"87d7b99a-a0d0-470e-9b85-e537f69a70d3","order_by":0,"name":"Markus S Mandume","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Namibia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Markus","middleName":"S","lastName":"Mandume","suffix":""},{"id":639234337,"identity":"0ae31d6e-7856-4429-a19f-b7f15676a23d","order_by":1,"name":"Samuel M Nuugulu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAt0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACCwZ+UrVIMEg2kKzF4ACxauVn95hJfm2TSNx8I/fgpxsMd+QJajG4c8ZMWhaoZduNvGTpHIZnhgQdaCCRYyYtCdaSYwDUcpiRoBb5GVAtm2fkGP8GarEnqIXhRo6Z5Eeglg0g64BaEgk77EZasTXDOQnjGWfemFnnGBxOJsJhyRtv/iizke1vzzG+nVNx2Jaww4CAmQdhKTHqgYDxB5EKR8EoGAWjYIQCAKeYOiL4cf37AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Namibia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Samuel","middleName":"M","lastName":"Nuugulu","suffix":""},{"id":639234338,"identity":"5aa59bc3-5c13-45cf-9d3f-c6a27a06854f","order_by":2,"name":"Albert Shikongo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Namibia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Albert","middleName":"","lastName":"Shikongo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-27 12:54:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8988254/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8988254/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109405608,"identity":"79525ac5-9656-4c8a-890b-b90b2445dd64","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-17 13:19:22","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1735015,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8988254/v1_covered_de7ffd1e-2772-4447-a550-ea43315f68e9.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Modelling of Gambling Information Spread and Public Health Risks in Namibia’s Zambezi Region","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Gambling information processes, Asymptotic stability analysis, Implicit Euler method, Gambling harm reduction, Zambezi region","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8988254/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8988254/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe prevalence of gambling in Namibia’s Zambezi Region poses a growing public health and socioeconomic challenge, affecting individuals, families, and community cohesion. 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