Multi-scale groundwater dynamics and irrigation-induced depletion in arid oasis regions: Insights from the Shiyang River Basin, China

Multi-scale groundwater dynamics and irrigation-induced depletion in arid oasis regions: Insights from the Shiyang River Basin, China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Multi-scale groundwater dynamics and irrigation-induced depletion in arid oasis regions: Insights from the Shiyang River Basin, China WU Xianzhong, HU Shihan, YU Lei, Yun ZHAO This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8066573/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In arid inland oases, groundwater serves as the primary water resource sustaining both agricultural irrigation and ecosystem stability, yet its multi-scale temporal dynamics and depth-dependent response patterns remain insufficiently understood, hindering effective adaptive water management. Taking the Shiyang River Basin in northwestern China—a typical intensively irrigated inland river basin—as a case study, this research integrates long-term monitoring data from 52 wells (2010–2024 monthly observations and 2022–2024 daily records) with climatic variables (precipitation, evaporation), irrigated area expansion, and population growth records. Trend analysis, cross-correlation methods, and spatiotemporal modeling are employed to systematically investigate vertical response mechanisms, spatial heterogeneity, and the relative contributions of anthropogenic versus natural drivers across different aquifer depths and sub-regions. The results reveal that: (1) Approximately 75% of wells exhibited significant declining trends primarily driven by intensive agricultural exploitation, with maximum depletion rates reaching − 0.5 m/yr in downstream irrigated areas; (2) A novel depth-stratified response pattern was identified: shallow aquifers (< 10 m) respond immediately to irrigation events with daily fluctuations up to 0.41 m, enabling real-time monitoring of agricultural water use; mid-depth aquifers (10–30 m) function as natural buffers showing 1–2 month lagged responses to irrigation demand; deep aquifers (> 60 m) demonstrate sustained, irreversible declines exceeding − 2.7 m/yr, indicating unsustainable groundwater mining; (3) Evaporation exhibited the strongest correlation with groundwater variations at 1-month lag (r = 0.724), while irrigated area expansion and population growth exerted significant cumulative impacts within 2–3 months; (4) Clear spatial differentiation exists: human activities (primarily irrigation) dominate groundwater dynamics in downstream agricultural regions with 1–3 month time lags, whereas upstream groundwater remains primarily governed by natural recharge processes. Based on these depth-stratified and spatially heterogeneous response patterns, we propose a differentiated management framework tailored to irrigation systems: "real-time regulation for shallow aquifers—buffer storage management for intermediate aquifers—strategic protection for deep aquifers," coupled with zonally differentiated strategies that prioritize irrigation efficiency improvements downstream and natural recharge conservation upstream. These findings provide scientific evidence and actionable technical support for dynamic groundwater regulation, optimized irrigation scheduling, and sustainable water allocation in arid agricultural regions facing water scarcity challenges. groundwater depth irrigation districts Sen’s slope pre-whitened cross-correlation multi-scale analysis arid-zone water management Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 12 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 11 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 11 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 08 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8066573","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":549447818,"identity":"f141cd6a-7202-4b23-8613-cc7353a69eb5","order_by":0,"name":"WU 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China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"irrigation-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"irsc","sideBox":"Learn more about [Irrigation Science](http://link.springer.com/journal/271)","snPcode":"271","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/271/3","title":"Irrigation Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"groundwater depth, irrigation districts, Sen’s slope, pre-whitened cross-correlation, multi-scale analysis, arid-zone water management","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8066573/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8066573/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn arid inland oases, groundwater serves as the primary water resource sustaining both agricultural irrigation and ecosystem stability, yet its multi-scale temporal dynamics and depth-dependent response patterns remain insufficiently understood, hindering effective adaptive water management. Taking the Shiyang River Basin in northwestern China\u0026mdash;a typical intensively irrigated inland river basin\u0026mdash;as a case study, this research integrates long-term monitoring data from 52 wells (2010\u0026ndash;2024 monthly observations and 2022\u0026ndash;2024 daily records) with climatic variables (precipitation, evaporation), irrigated area expansion, and population growth records. Trend analysis, cross-correlation methods, and spatiotemporal modeling are employed to systematically investigate vertical response mechanisms, spatial heterogeneity, and the relative contributions of anthropogenic versus natural drivers across different aquifer depths and sub-regions. The results reveal that: (1) Approximately 75% of wells exhibited significant declining trends primarily driven by intensive agricultural exploitation, with maximum depletion rates reaching \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.5 m/yr in downstream irrigated areas; (2) A novel depth-stratified response pattern was identified: shallow aquifers (\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;10 m) respond immediately to irrigation events with daily fluctuations up to 0.41 m, enabling real-time monitoring of agricultural water use; mid-depth aquifers (10\u0026ndash;30 m) function as natural buffers showing 1\u0026ndash;2 month lagged responses to irrigation demand; deep aquifers (\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;60 m) demonstrate sustained, irreversible declines exceeding \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2.7 m/yr, indicating unsustainable groundwater mining; (3) Evaporation exhibited the strongest correlation with groundwater variations at 1-month lag (r\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.724), while irrigated area expansion and population growth exerted significant cumulative impacts within 2\u0026ndash;3 months; (4) Clear spatial differentiation exists: human activities (primarily irrigation) dominate groundwater dynamics in downstream agricultural regions with 1\u0026ndash;3 month time lags, whereas upstream groundwater remains primarily governed by natural recharge processes. Based on these depth-stratified and spatially heterogeneous response patterns, we propose a differentiated management framework tailored to irrigation systems: \"real-time regulation for shallow aquifers\u0026mdash;buffer storage management for intermediate aquifers\u0026mdash;strategic protection for deep aquifers,\" coupled with zonally differentiated strategies that prioritize irrigation efficiency improvements downstream and natural recharge conservation upstream. These findings provide scientific evidence and actionable technical support for dynamic groundwater regulation, optimized irrigation scheduling, and sustainable water allocation in arid agricultural regions facing water scarcity challenges.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Multi-scale groundwater dynamics and irrigation-induced depletion in arid oasis regions: Insights from the Shiyang River Basin, China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-24 02:21:04","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8066573/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"174691087254865684326803704611740441001","date":"2025-11-26T07:51:15+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-11-12T10:09:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-11-11T20:34:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-11-11T12:12:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Irrigation Science","date":"2025-11-09T02:08:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"irrigation-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"irsc","sideBox":"Learn more about [Irrigation Science](http://link.springer.com/journal/271)","snPcode":"271","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/271/3","title":"Irrigation Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"375b4fa4-2e46-4071-b328-905ebf6890d8","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-24T02:21:04+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-24 02:21:04","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8066573","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8066573","identity":"rs-8066573","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}