COVID-19 Impacts on Children and Resources for Resilience: What is the Direction of Causation?

COVID-19 has profoundly affected children’s well-being. Resilience was often found to be negatively correlated with COVID-19 impacts. However, the role of resilience in directly shaping COVID-19 impacts on children remains unclear, as studies report conflicting evidence regarding the potential causal direction between COVID-19 impacts and resilience. Higher resilience could reduce COVID-19 impacts, while COVID-19 impacts may also disrupt or enhance resilience. Or it could be the case that the two are simply correlated due to shared underlying common factors. This preregistered study uses a twin-based Direction of Causation modeling approach with data from 1166 twins (age: M = 12.59; 50.78% male; 85.08% White) to explore the causal direction between COVID-19 impacts and resilience. Resilience was assessed using the Child and Youth Resilience Measure (CYRM) – Child Version, a child self-report questionnaire assessing resources available for children’s resilience. Findings revealed a causal effect such that resilience resources explained 32% variance in overall COVID-19 impacts, consistently buffering negative outcomes across multiple domains (e.g., social connections, general stress, COVID-related stress). A reciprocal causal effect was found for economic impacts, with resilience mitigating economic impacts and economic challenges enhancing resilience.