Global, regional, and national burden of vascular intestinal disorders, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2035: A systemic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Global, regional, and national burden of vascular intestinal disorders, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2035: A systemic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Global, regional, and national burden of vascular intestinal disorders, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2035: A systemic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study Zike Chen, Mengyan Chen, Chen Wang, Xiaoqqian Jin, Yugang Wang, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6709314/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Objective This study aims to summarize and evaluate the temporal trends of the disease burden of vascular intestinal disorders (VID) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the disease burden to 2035. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to identify significant changes in trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and decomposition analysis were used to quantify the contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth to these trends. In addition, cross-national health inequality analysis was accessed to calculate the unequal distribution of the burden of VID across 204 countries worldwide. Last, an ARIMA model was adopted to predict the burden of VID up to 2035. Results From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of VID decreased by 11.76% in China and 12.17% globally, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined by 7.94% and 15.05%, respectively. The incidence of VID peaked among individuals aged 70–80, with a higher burden observed in women than in men. Cross-country inequality analyses suggested that the inequality in the burden of VID between high- and low-Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries become greater, with lower-SDI countries bearing higher disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the primary driver of increased incidence and mortality, while epidemiological changes had a moderating effect. Joinpoint analysis identified key turning points in disease burden from 2004–2010. The ARIMA model predicts a continued decline in disease burden from 2022 to 2035. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the overall burden of VID presents a decline and is expected to continue decreasing up to 2035. The high burden is particularly evident in the elderly population, though gender disparities are narrowing. This suggests that aging plays a critical role in the disease burden. High-SDI regions have higher ASMR and ASDR, while regions with low-SDI suffer from higher DALYs. Together, these findings highlight the need for targeted strategies for high-burden regions, which may provide insights into the diagnosis and treatment of VID. Global Burden of Disease Vascular intestinal disorders Age-period-cohort Joinpoint analysis Cross-national inequality Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementarytable1.xlsx Supplementarytable2.xlsx supplementarytable3.xlsx Supplementarytable4.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6709314","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":473229028,"identity":"da7b7d42-8c3f-4163-8563-acd66cbf51ce","order_by":0,"name":"Zike Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zike","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":473229029,"identity":"a5a114ed-5afd-4cf2-84fd-7ae8c73edd9c","order_by":1,"name":"Mengyan Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tongren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University 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Study","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Global Burden of Disease, Vascular intestinal disorders, Age-period-cohort, Joinpoint analysis, Cross-national inequality","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6709314/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6709314/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eObjective\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study aims to summarize and evaluate the temporal trends of the disease burden of vascular intestinal disorders (VID) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the disease burden to 2035.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to identify significant changes in trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and decomposition analysis were used to quantify the contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth to these trends. In addition, cross-national health inequality analysis was accessed to calculate the unequal distribution of the burden of VID across 204 countries worldwide. Last, an ARIMA model was adopted to predict the burden of VID up to 2035.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of VID decreased by 11.76% in China and 12.17% globally, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined by 7.94% and 15.05%, respectively. The incidence of VID peaked among individuals aged 70\u0026ndash;80, with a higher burden observed in women than in men. Cross-country inequality analyses suggested that the inequality in the burden of VID between high- and low-Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries become greater, with lower-SDI countries bearing higher disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the primary driver of increased incidence and mortality, while epidemiological changes had a moderating effect. Joinpoint analysis identified key turning points in disease burden from 2004\u0026ndash;2010. The ARIMA model predicts a continued decline in disease burden from 2022 to 2035.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom 1990 to 2021, the overall burden of VID presents a decline and is expected to continue decreasing up to 2035. The high burden is particularly evident in the elderly population, though gender disparities are narrowing. This suggests that aging plays a critical role in the disease burden. High-SDI regions have higher ASMR and ASDR, while regions with low-SDI suffer from higher DALYs. Together, these findings highlight the need for targeted strategies for high-burden regions, which may provide insights into the diagnosis and treatment of VID.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Global, regional, and national burden of vascular intestinal disorders, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2035: A systemic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-20 13:20:54","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6709314/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"68da8b3f-5d82-4fd6-80a4-4f55f1ef0071","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 20th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-07-01T04:23:11+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-20 13:20:54","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6709314","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6709314","identity":"rs-6709314","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}