Assessing Spatial Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Climate Change and Extremes: A Geographic Information System Approach

Abstract Regarding climate change, the world’s most discussed issue for the last few decades, countries like Bangladesh are always noteworthy due to its susceptibility resulting from its geography, hazard proneness, and socioeconomic condition. Thus, this aimed to justify the hypothesis that Bangladesh has spatial diversity in sectors of Climate Change Vulnerability (CCV) by identifying the sectors of vulnerability and visualizing the spatial distribution of vulnerability through multivariate geospatial analysis in the GIS environment. For an integrated assessment of CCV, 38 indicators (socio-economic and biophysical) have been incorporated in the IPCC framework in raster form. Test statistics have shown Kiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) value is 0.73 and the p-value of Bartlett’s sphericity is 0. The principal component analysis resulted in 6 principal components with 73.52% total explained variance. Sectors of CCV are the Climatic extreme event vulnerability (PC1), Meteorological shift vulnerability (PC2), Infrastructure and demographic vulnerability (PC3), Ecological vulnerability (PC4), Flood vulnerability (PC5), and Economic vulnerability (PC6) with Cronbach’s alpha 0.90, 0.81, 0.88, 0.72, 0.72, and 0.66 respectively. Among 3 clusters (Jenk’s Natural break) of weighted averaged indices, the highly vulnerable cluster has shown that the PC1 has the highest magnitude with a score of 0.53–0.87, while the PC5 has the highest spatial coverage with 24 districts. The present study however is a new edition in climate vulnerability assessment in Bangladesh since it encompasses multivariate spatial analysis to demonstrate countrywide CCV. This study should be an important tool for setting adaptation and mitigation strategies from the root level to policymaking platforms of Bangladesh.