Low-carbon emission reduction policy, ecological environment evolution and macroeconomic fluctuations: a simulation analysis based on multi-sector DSGE

Low-carbon emission reduction policy, ecological environment evolution and macroeconomic fluctuations: a simulation analysis based on multi-sector DSGE | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Low-carbon emission reduction policy, ecological environment evolution and macroeconomic fluctuations: a simulation analysis based on multi-sector DSGE Yao Xu, Longyu Xu, Xuexia Wang, Zhenhao Wei, Lewei Hong This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8162956/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper explores the effects of multiple external shocks faced by manufacturers and the government on the macroeconomy and the quality of the ecological environment by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in various sectors, with the following conclusions: (1) Both productivity and environmental protection technology shocks can achieve the coordinated development of macroeconomic and ecological environments. (2) Environmental improvement is lagging behind business willingness to cut emissions, and an energy shock has an immediate but long-term unsustainable impact on reducing low-carbon emissions. (3) The effects of the government's three emission-reduction measures diverge significantly. In the short term, the carbon tax rate significantly improves environmental quality. However, in the long term, its effect is counterproductive, as it does nothing to support the coordinated development of the economy and ecological environment. The subsidies for energy conservation and emission reduction, along with government expenditure on pollution control, stimulate growth in output, consumption, and energy in the current period. However, the restoration effect on the ecological environment has a lag. (4) The long-term coordinated development of the ecological environment and economy will fundamentally necessitate continuous technological progress, as well as flexible and effective market mechanisms. Low-carbon emission reduction Economic fluctuations Environment DSGE Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 09 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 23 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 21 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 20 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8162956","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":559079346,"identity":"b23e6061-8ec3-4912-8b7b-413a0fec574c","order_by":0,"name":"Yao Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingdao University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yao","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":559079347,"identity":"e897e551-df19-4548-847b-5fb77e01fee5","order_by":1,"name":"Longyu Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingdao University of 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