AfCFTA Expectations and Border-Level Implementation Challenges in Southern Africa

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It draws on 23 interviews with customs officers, traders, transporters, and institutional officials to explore their expectations and the conditions shaping readiness at the Oshikango crossing between Namibia and Angola. The findings show that cross-border trade supports local livelihoods; however, most participants were unfamiliar with the AfCFTA beyond what they had heard in general news. Their daily work is shaped by limited facilities, slow procedures, language challenges, and unclear permit rules. Many worried about cheaper imports. The study argues that clearer communication, improved infrastructure, and better coordination between agencies are essential for meaningful progress. International Business AfCFTA Cross-border trade Trade implementation Regional governance SMEs Informal trade Namibia Border policy Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 1. Introduction Trade liberalization has long been recognized as a catalyst for economic development (Eichengreen, 2019), yet Africa remains the least integrated continent in terms of intra-regional commerce. Figures from UNCTAD indicate that only about 16 percent of the continent’s total trade occurs between African countries. In contrast, Europe trades far more within its own region, with approximately 68 percent of its exports destined for other European states (UNCTAD, 2024; UNCTAD, 2019). This disparity reflects historical legacies that continue to shape Africa's economic geography. Colonial boundaries, drawn with little regard for existing trade networks or ethnic communities, fragmented what had been functioning regional markets and redirected trade flows toward metropolitan centers in Europe (Gitau, 2019). The result has been a pattern of outward-oriented economies that export raw materials and import manufactured goods (Geda et al., 2028). Consequently, neighboring African countries often compete for access to the same distant markets rather than trading with each other (Rwehumbiza, 2020). Cross-border trade barriers have compounded these structural disadvantages. High tariffs, non-tariff measures, poor transport infrastructure, and cumbersome customs procedures have increased the cost of moving goods across African borders (Bouët et al., 2017). In many cases, formal trade restrictions have simply pushed commerce into informal channels, with traders crossing borders through unofficial routes to avoid lengthy inspections, unpredictable fees, and complex documentation requirements (Mitaritonna et al., 2017). The persistence of these barriers has constrained economic growth, limited employment opportunities, and reinforced dependence on commodity exports to non-African markets. In response to these challenges, African leaders signed the African Continental Free Trade Agreement in Kigali, Rwanda, in March 2018 (Songwe et al., 2021). By design, the AfCFTA aims to create the largest free trade area in the world, encompassing the largest number of participating countries, with a combined market of 1.3 billion people and a gross domestic product exceeding $ 2.5 trillion (Bengoa et al., 2021). The agreement is structured in phases. The first phase involves the negotiation of three protocols: Trade in Goods, Trade in Services, and Rules and Procedures for the Settlement of Disputes. A second phase focuses on investment, competition, and intellectual property rights (Maliszewska et al., 2019). Upon full implementation, the AfCFTA requires member states to eliminate tariffs on 90 percent of goods, with an additional 7 percent classified as sensitive products and 3 percent excluded from liberalization. Proponents project substantial gains, boosting trade within Africa by 25 to 30 percent over the next decade and potentially raising intra-African exports by approximately US $ 13.7 billion, thereby increasing intra-African trade by about 42.6 percent (Geda & Yima, 2023). Despite these ambitious objectives, implementation has been uneven across the continent. Many African countries lack the institutional capacity, infrastructure, and administrative systems needed to operationalize the agreement's provisions. High transaction costs, primarily due to factors like inefficient administrative procedures at border crossings and inadequate infrastructure, as well as the persistent existence of non-tariff barriers, remain pervasive (Gumede, 2021). The gap between policy aspiration and ground-level reality has prompted calls for more empirical research on how the AfCFTA is being received and what obstacles stand in the way of its successful execution. Namibia presents a distinctive case for such inquiry. The country has acknowledged AfCFTA in its policy plans and confirmed its membership, aligning its development goals with the single-market vision of Agenda 2063. It has also noted some growth in its intra-Africa trade as part of its broader push for regional integration (Namibia National Planning Commission, 2025). Namibia shares borders with four countries and maintains active cross-border trade relationships, particularly with Angola to the north. The Oshikango border post, situated in the Ohangwena Region, approximately 800 kilometers from the capital, Windhoek, serves as a major gateway for commerce between the two countries. Oshikango is the main Namibian border post with Angola and has become one of the fastest-growing towns in the country’s north. It sits at the point where the B1, Namibia’s primary north–south transport route, reaches the border. Over time, the northern border posts have grown into active economic centers that link South African ports with Angolan markets. This particular border crossing plays an important commercial role because it offers the most accessible place for goods to move between two different social and administrative systems (Dobler, 2009). Yet Oshikango also exemplifies the challenges facing peripheral border regions. The infrastructure at the border post is outdated and requires modernization to meet international standards (JICA, 2015). Cargo inspections are time-consuming and often incomplete due to inadequate facilities. Smuggling remains a persistent concern. Permit application procedures are centralized in Windhoek, creating delays and additional costs for small-scale traders. These conditions raise questions about the readiness of such border posts to implement the AfCFTA and to capture its projected benefits. Existing research on the AfCFTA has relied on the gravity model, which is used to analyze trade flows as part of aggregate trade effects (Yaya et al., 2025). Other studies have employed a global Computable General Equilibrium model to investigate how the AfCFTA impacts production fragmentation and trade flows from a value-added perspective (Fusacchia et al., 2022). Trade-related indicator indices have also been used as a primary methodological approach to assess the agreement’s potential for trade creation and diversion (Geda & Yimer, 2023). While these studies generate valuable macro-level projections of trade-creation and diversion, they typically leave unaddressed how the agreement is perceived, anticipated, and experienced by businesses, informal traders, and other ground-level actors. Few studies have examined perceptions, expectations, and concerns at specific border locations where cross-border trade actually occurs, despite these sites playing a central role in the practical implementation of the AfCFTA. This gap is particularly significant because implementation challenges are likely to vary by context, and local stakeholder buy-in may determine whether policy reforms are effectively translated into practice. This study addresses that gap by investigating how stakeholders at the Oshikango border post perceive the potential impact of the AfCFTA on cross-border trade. The study pursues three objectives: (1) to assess stakeholder awareness and expectations regarding the AfCFTA; (2) to identify perceived opportunities and challenges associated with its implementation; and (3) to examine how current border trade conditions may inform future policy and practice. By focusing the analysis on a specific border post, the study provides ground-level evidence that complements existing aggregate projections and addresses implementation concerns directly. This study offers contributions to policy, practice, and scholarship. For Namibian policymakers, the findings provide guidance on priority areas for intervention, including public education, infrastructure investment, interagency coordination, and decentralization of administrative procedures. Because the AfCFTA requires national adaptation of its provisions, understanding local conditions and stakeholder concerns is essential for designing effective implementation strategies that align with both continental goals and regional realities. For practitioners, including customs officials, border management agencies, and trade facilitation organizations, the study identifies specific barriers that impede legal trade and encourage informal or illicit commerce. Addressing these barriers can improve compliance, reduce revenue leakage, and enhance the legitimacy of formal trade channels. The findings also address the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises and informal traders, who constitute the majority of cross-border traders at Oshikango and who stand to gain or lose depending on how the agreement is implemented. For the academic literature, the study contributes empirical evidence from a frontier border post in a small open economy. Most AfCFTA research has focused on large economies such as Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt, or has examined aggregate continental effects (Ajewumi et al., 2024; Signé & Madden, 2021; Seti & Daw, 2022). Studies of peripheral border regions remain scarce. By documenting perceptions and conditions at Oshikango, this study enriches understanding of the heterogeneous contexts in which the AfCFTA will operate and can serve as a reference point for comparative analysis at other border posts across the continent. The remainder of this paper proceeds as follows. The next section reviews relevant literature on trade integration in Africa, the development and structure of the AfCFTA, and the theoretical foundations of regional trade agreements. The third section describes the research methodology, including the qualitative design, sampling strategy, data collection procedures, and analytical approach. The fourth section presents findings organized by the study's three objectives. The fifth section discusses the implications of these findings for theory and practice, acknowledges limitations, and identifies directions for future research. The final section concludes with a summary of key takeaways and recommendations. 2. Theoretical framing and related research This study sits at the intersection of four ideas: continental trade liberalization under the AfCFTA, cross-border trade at land borders, local economic development in border towns, and the role of state regulation and policy implementation. The central constructs are therefore the AfCFTA as a continental trade agreement, cross-border trade and trade openness at Oshikango, local socio-economic development, and government regulation and implementation strategies. The study also engages stakeholders’ awareness and expectations of AfCFTA, since perceptions shape how traders and officials respond to new rules in practice. 2.1 Classical trade and integration theories Classical trade theory provides the first lens. Comparative advantage theory posits that countries benefit when they specialize in goods they can produce relatively efficiently and trade for goods they produce less efficiently (Thompson, 2024). In the African context, this logic is expanded by the Heckscher–Ohlin factor endowment model, which explains trade patterns based on differences in labor, capital, land, and natural resource endowments across countries (Baskaran et al., 2011). From this standpoint, AfCFTA is expected to reduce intra-African trade barriers, encourage specialization based on resource strengths, expand opportunities for importing goods that cannot be produced competitively, and raise welfare through more efficient resource allocation (Abrego et al., 2020). Balassa’s theory of economic integration adds a second layer. It distinguishes stages of integration, starting with a free trade area and potentially moving toward customs unions, common markets, and deeper unions (Sapir, 2011). The AfCFTA is formally a free trade area, but it is embedded within existing regional economic communities, such as SADC and SACU, and is often presented as a building block toward a more unified African market (Fofack & Mold, 2021). This framing positions AfCFTA as part of a longer historical project of regional integration and Pan-African cooperation, rather than a single technical instrument. Gravity models of trade provide a third theoretical strand that focuses on mechanisms. Gravity theory explains trade flows as a function of the economic size of countries and the costs of trading between them (Baier et al., 2018). Donaubauer et al. (2018) show that these “trade costs” include distance, infrastructure, border procedures, and non-tariff barriers. Studies that apply gravity models to African regional agreements find that when countries reduce border-related frictions, intra-regional trade volumes tend to rise (Ngepah & Udeagha, 2018; Afesorgbor, 2017). For a border post such as Oshikango, gravity thinking directs attention to infrastructure quality, the ease of documentation, and the predictability of enforcement as key channels through which AfCFTA might affect trade. 2.2 Trade integration, border towns, and informal trade A second broad stream of work links trade integration to African development and the history of borders. Scholars of globalization and African economic history demonstrate how colonial boundary-making and outward-oriented trade patterns fragmented pre-existing regional markets, drawing African economies toward European centers (Settles, 1996; Bah et al., 2018; Albers et al., 2023; Michalopoulos & Papaioannou, 2020). Later Pan-African and regional integration efforts, from the African Economic Community to today’s AfCFTA, can be read as attempts to reverse this pattern and promote “Africa trading with itself” (Oyebamiji, 2024; Aniche, 2020). At the same time, empirical work on cross-border trade reveals that African borders are busy spaces where formal and informal activities coexist. Informal cross-border trade often accounts for a significant share of food and consumer goods flows, providing livelihoods for low-income traders, particularly women (Rouillé et al., 2024). Studies of Oshikango and similar border towns demonstrate how trade booms can transform local economies (Kainuma & Saito, 2022), but also create regulatory dilemmas related to smuggling, taxation, and urban planning (Ngo & Hung, 2024). Recent AfCFTA-focused work adds a third layer to this picture. Model-based studies project sizeable gains in intra-African trade and income if AfCFTA is fully implemented, but they also highlight uneven benefits and the need for complementary policies (Fussachia et al., 2021; Moyo, 2023). Policy analyses and commentaries emphasize that real progress hinges on infrastructure upgrades, enhanced customs management, and strengthened institutional capacity at both national and regional levels (Apiko et al., 2020; Gumede, 2021). 3. Research Questions This study examines how the AfCFTA is anticipated at the Oshikango border post through three focused questions: How do cross-border trade activities shape socio-economic development in Oshikango? How are AfCFTA-related rules understood and applied by officers and stakeholders at the border? What practical measures could strengthen Namibia’s implementation of the AfCFTA at peripheral border posts such as Oshikango? 4. Method 4.1 Approach The study adopted a qualitative, mono-method design grounded in a constructivist ontology. The researchers treated realities around cross-border trade and AfCFTA implementation as socially constructed through the experiences and interpretations of traders, customs officials, policymakers, and local authorities, rather than as fixed, purely objective facts (Saunders et al., 2019). Grounded theory principles guided knowledge development, with an emphasis on learning from participants’ accounts that allowed codes and themes to emerge from the data rather than forcing them into a predetermined model (Qureshi & Unlu, 2020). Given the focus on one border post and its policy environment, the project functioned as a qualitative case centered on Oshikango, with an additional institutional layer at the ministerial level. This design aligned with the research questions, which aimed to understand how the AfCFTA is interpreted, anticipated, and implemented in a specific setting, and how individuals on the ground make sense of a new trade framework. 4.2 Site and participants The empirical setting was the Oshikango border post in northern Namibia and ministerial offices in Windhoek. Oshikango is Namibia’s only inland border town and a major crossing point for trade with Angola. The unit of analysis was cross-border trade and AfCFTA implementation at Oshikango; the units of observation were individuals involved in trade facilitation and policy. The population consisted of 38 trade officers employed at the Oshikango border post. The study employed a purposive heterogeneous sampling approach to target individuals most likely to possess relevant knowledge (Saunders et al., 2019). A target sample of 35 participants was identified from the total population of 38 to allow broad coverage of stakeholder categories. Ultimately, 23 interviews were completed (a response rate of 66 percent), which is acceptable for qualitative research focused on rich, experience-based accounts (Saunders et al., 2019; Tracy, 2010). Participants were drawn from two groups: trade facilitation officers at the Oshikango border post and officials from the Ministry of Industrialization and Trade, as well as the Namibia Revenue Agency (NAMRA) in Windhoek. This combination linked frontline operational experience at the border to policy and strategic perspectives at the national level. 4.3 Data collection Data was gathered through semi-structured, face-to-face interviews using an open-ended interview guide. The instrument was developed based on the research objectives and then piloted with a trade facilitation officer at NAMRA’s cross-border trade division. The pilot led to the restructuring of nine initial questions in terms of wording, key concepts, and allocation of questions between border-level and ministerial-level participants, in line with guidance on pilot work in qualitative research (Saunders et al., 2019). Fieldwork followed a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, interviews were conducted at Oshikango with trade facilitation officers who manage daily operations and interact directly with traders. In the second stage, interviews were held at the Ministry of Industrialization and Trade and at NAMRA headquarters in Windhoek to obtain specialist views on national AfCFTA implementation and regulatory design. Interviews followed a progression from introductory to more demanding questions to put participants at ease. With participants’ permission, conversations were audio-recorded. Each interview lasted long enough to cover the entire guide, and all 23 were completed as single-session conversations. 4.4 Data analysis Data analysis drew on grounded-theory principles of iterative coding and constant comparison (Charmaz, 2006; Qureshi & Unlu, 2020). In line with guidance that grounded theory benefits from simultaneous data collection and analysis, the researchers organized the work in stages. After each wave of interviews (border and ministerial), recordings were transcribed and imported into ATLAS.ti for coding. Open coding was employed to identify concepts within participants’ words, which were then grouped into categories and broader themes aligned with the study's objectives. Codes and themes were compared across participants and between the border-level and ministerial-level interviews to identify convergences and differences. The findings were presented using charts, tables, and figures generated from ATLAS.ti output, followed by a narrative explanation. Trustworthiness was addressed in several ways (Korstjens & Moser, 2017). For credibility, participants were selected based on their direct roles in trade facilitation or policy, and interviews were conducted individually to facilitate candid responses. For transferability, the setting, participants, and procedures were described in detail so that readers can assess the relevance of the findings to other borders. Dependability and confirmability were supported by maintaining a clear audit trail: interviews were recorded, stored on a secure network location (Nowell et al., 2017), and systematically transcribed and coded. This allowed for the tracing of analytic decisions. 4.5 Ethics Ethical conduct adhered to the University of Namibia’s research ethics code and a deontological approach, which prioritizes the rights of participants (Koali et al., 2024). Access permission for the border site was obtained through the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Trade. Participation was voluntary; individuals were informed about the purpose of the study, their right to decline or withdraw, and the intended use of the data. Informed consent was obtained prior to the interviews, and permission to record was obtained for each session. Confidentiality was maintained by anonymizing participants in transcripts and reporting only aggregated findings. 5. Findings This section presents findings from 23 participants, including trade facilitation officers at the Oshikango border post and officials from the Ministry of Industrialization and Trade and the Namibia Revenue Agency in Windhoek. 5.1 Cross-border trade and socio-economic development of Oshikango Cross-border trade has been the driving force behind Oshikango's growth. Following Namibian independence, demand from Angola created business opportunities that transformed a truck stop into a multicultural commercial hub. Infrastructure followed commerce: retail shops multiplied, government services expanded, and entrepreneurs from multiple countries established warehouses and trading operations. As Participant 3 explained, the town " was initially established to cater for truck drivers who would need accommodation, as the population at the border grew, other activities started happening ." The town now hosts a mix of original village residents, businesspeople engaged in cross-border trade, government employees, and participants acknowledged candidly, individuals involved in illegal activities near the border. Economic benefits reach residents through multiple channels. Those living near the border access cheaper Angolan goods and save on transport costs that inland Namibians must pay when traveling to purchase goods for resale. Currency advantages currently favor Namibian traders, who can buy more in Angola. Trade commodities encompass a wide range of items, including food, vehicles, agricultural products, furniture, clothing, and services such as medical care, with goods flowing predominantly from Namibia to Angola through bonded warehouses (see Fig. 1 ). According to Participant 5, some villages predated the border post itself, meaning original residents found themselves incorporated into a growing commercial center. Yet administrative barriers constrain this potential. Lengthy permit procedures push traders, particularly those in the informal sector, toward illegal channels. Even small-volume traders face import duties that seem disproportionate to their transaction size, with participants noting that the amount of import duties that individuals must pay on commodities creates burdens even when trade volumes are small. The COVID-19 pandemic led to sharp declines in border activity, and inflation and smuggling persist as ongoing problems. Trade patterns have undergone significant shifts over time. Participants 1 and 9 both emphasized that most clients now come from Angola to purchase in Namibia, reversing earlier flows. As Participant 9 recalled, " Back in the years, there were a lot of bonded warehouses in Oshikango border post, mostly were cars, motor vehicles, and furniture. By that time, because we were having many bonded warehouses selling to the Angolan people, and business was mostly established for the Angolan people ." Participant 1 noted that commodities have also shifted: " What is being traded more now compared to the past is food items, like Namibians to go Angola [sic] they source food, then they come and sell food . It is mostly food [sic], vegetables and clothing would come second, and now with the illegal petrol it is [sic] one of the most sought after commodity it the petrol [sic] . ” Several factors influence these dynamics, including consumer needs, economic conditions on the Angolan side, drought, and seasonal availability (see Fig. 2 ). 5.2 Implementation of AfCFTA regulations and perceived impacts Awareness of the AfCFTA among frontline officers was strikingly limited. Most reported knowing about the agreement only through news reports, with a limited understanding of its objectives or relevance to their daily work. Participant 1 captured the prevailing sentiment: "I would say that there is little that I know about the agreement, as I have read about it, but as per the implementation and so [sic] , we do not [sic] really know much about it." In a similar vein, Participant 11 acknowledged: "I cannot really say I am well informed about it, I hear about it, and maybe we are practicing it without knowing. However, my understanding is more or less about cross-border country trade, which happens between countries like Namibia and Angola." Participant 18 assessed implementation at the border as weak: " I think here at Oshikango border, it is not well implemented, I would say. Mostly at the head office, they usually give us training." (See Table 1 ). Table 1 Frontline Officer Awareness and Preparedness for AfCFTA Implementation Category Key Findings Representative Quotes Level of Awareness Most participants have limited knowledge about AfCFTA, mainly from reading or the news. Many express a lack of deep understanding. “I would say that there is little that I know about the agreement, as I have read about it, but as per the implementation and so [sic] , we do not [sic] really know much about it.”- Participant 1 Understanding of Impact Limited understanding of specific impacts. Some relate it to cross-border trade or customs procedures. “I cannot really say I am well informed about it, I hear about it, and maybe we are practicing it without knowing. However, my understanding is more or less about cross-border country trade, which happens between countries like Namibia and Angola." - Participant 11 Challenges Lack of facilities for implementation, complications due to non-membership of some countries in regional agreements, and limited application beyond SADC countries. " When it comes to Oshikango border, there are no facilities that are helping us to implement free trade " - Participant 9 Preparedness Some training provided, but implementation seems limited. Information sharing occurs through meetings and digital platforms. " I think here at Oshikango border, it is not well implemented, I would say. Mostly at the head office, they usually give us training” - Participant 18 When asked about regulatory changes since Namibia signed the AfCFTA in 2019, border-level participants were unable to identify specific facilitating procedures. They instead referenced general improvements following the establishment of NAMRA as a parastatal. Participants 6, 15, and 16 highlighted simplified administration and increased revenue, rather than AfCFTA-specific measures. Infrastructure gaps compounded the problem. As Participant 9 put it bluntly: " When it comes to Oshikango border, there are no facilities that are helping us to implement free trade. " Ministerial officials provided crucial context. The Ministry has developed a National Implementation Strategy and established an AfCFTA committee; however, the agreement remains non-operational in SADC while countries ratify their tariff offers. Participant 3 from the ministerial level clarified that Namibia's offer is submitted through SACU as a unified submission, meaning countries retain the right to agree or disagree on specific commodities, particularly regarding tariff reductions. Current trade with other African countries is conducted under Most Favored Nation terms, rather than AfCFTA provisions. NAMRA has introduced an advance ruling for importers and exporters and implemented SACU agreements on mutual recognition and electronic document exchange, but these efforts have concentrated on the Trans-Kalahari border post rather than Oshikango. Despite implementation gaps, participants anticipated substantial benefits from eventual operationalization. Three key expected gains dominated responses: tariff reduction, increased cross-border trade volumes, simplified procedures that enable SME development and market access, and regional integration, facilitating the freer movement of people and goods. These benefits were expected to particularly advantage young entrepreneurs and informal traders (see Fig. 3 ). Concerns tempered this optimism. Participants 3 and 4 from the ministerial level warned that competition from countries with lower production costs, such as Angola, could flood Namibia with cheap imports that would disadvantage local entrepreneurs. Participants 2 and 3 emphasized that Namibia's small domestic market consists largely of infant industries requiring protection. Participant 4 noted, however, that the agreement makes provision for negotiations on sensitive products to ensure countries are not disadvantaged. 5.3 Suggested improvements for AfCFTA implementation Participants offered concrete, actionable recommendations. Public education emerged as the most frequent need; the ministry needs to inform traders about legal trade procedures and the consequences of smuggling. As the findings indicate, some traders smuggle goods that could be legally imported simply because they misunderstand the requirements. Multiple participants emphasized that education could address various border challenges, including illegal trade. Establishing Oshikango as a one-stop border post was repeatedly recommended to streamline currently fragmented procedures across multiple agencies. Pre-clearance mechanisms would help traders know the requirements before arrival. Interagency collaboration could address misalignments. Participant 1 highlighted that visa requirements from Home Affairs are too stringent for small-scale traders who do not reside in Namibia but regularly cross the border to sell items from Angola. Language barriers require attention: Namibian documents are written in English, while those of Angola are in Portuguese, creating communication difficulties with Angolan citizens and officials. Infrastructure improvements were consistently requested. Participants highlighted outdated equipment, insufficient human capital, and a lack of technological advancement at the border post. Decentralizing permit processes would reduce delays and costs for small-volume traders who currently must route applications through Windhoek. 5.4 Negative cases and alternative explanations Not all participants viewed AfCFTA implementation optimistically. Skepticism centered on whether benefits would materialize at Oshikango given its distance from policy centers and persistent infrastructure deficits. The concentration of modernization efforts in the Trans-Kalahari suggests that peripheral borders may be lower priorities for national strategy. The disconnect between Namibia's 2019 ratification and frontline officers' minimal awareness indicates a gap between policy adoption and operational readiness. This may reflect communication failures or rational behavior; officers focus on current procedures because the AfCFTA preferential regime has not yet been widely implemented in practice within the SADC region. Competition concerns were grounded in existing dynamics, not merely anticipated ones. Participants 3 and 4 pointed to specific examples of how lower-priced goods from countries like Angola already affect local businesses. Table 2 Summary of Emergent Themes Across Research Questions Research Question Key Themes Core Evidence Socio-economic contribution Economic growth through trade; infrastructure follows commerce; administrative barriers limit potential; shifting trade patterns Town transformed from truck stop to multicultural hub (Participant 3); permits push traders to informal channels; clients now mainly Angolan buyers (Participants 1, 9) Implementation and impacts Limited frontline awareness; no AfCFTA-specific procedures at Oshikango; anticipated benefits tempered by competition concerns Officers learned of AfCFTA from the news only (Participants 1, 11, 18); infant industries need protection (Participants 2, 3, 4) Suggested improvements Public education; one-stop border post; interagency collaboration; language support; infrastructure investment; decentralized permits Smuggling occurs from procedure ignorance; visa rules too strict (Participant 1); no facilities for free trade implementation (Participant 9) These findings reveal a consistent pattern: Oshikango's economy relies heavily on cross-border trade; however, administrative and infrastructure constraints limit its development, and the AfCFTA has yet to translate into observable changes despite national ratification. The puzzle of whether continental agreements can deliver benefits to peripheral border regions remains unresolved at Oshikango, where stakeholders anticipate positive impacts but identify substantial barriers to realization. 6. Discussion This study inquired whether the African Continental Free Trade Area can deliver meaningful benefits to peripheral border regions, and the answer from Oshikango is not yet forthcoming, nor is it without substantial groundwork. The findings reveal that while cross-border trade has driven Oshikango's development for decades, the AfCFTA remains a policy abstraction at the border post level, with frontline officers largely unaware of the agreement and no specific implementation measures in place since Namibia's ratification in 2019. 6.1 Theoretical contributions These findings extend and challenge existing theoretical perspectives on regional trade integration. The Economic Gravity Model predicts that reduced trade barriers between countries will increase trade volumes in proportion to their economic mass and inversely proportional to the distance between them (Jadhav & Ghosh, 2024). Our evidence partially supports this: participants anticipated that tariff reductions would boost cross-border trade, and the close proximity of Angola, Namibia's northern neighbor, has indeed made Oshikango a trading hub. However, the findings reveal boundary conditions that gravity models typically overlook. Administrative barriers, infrastructure deficits, and information gaps function as friction that can neutralize the benefits of tariff reduction. Distance matters, but so does institutional readiness. The findings also refine Balassa's (1961) stages of economic integration. Balassa's framework assumes progressive movement from free trade areas through customs unions toward full economic integration. Oshikango's experience suggests that formal ratification does not necessarily equate to functional integration. Namibia has ratified the AfCFTA and submitted tariff offers through SACU (Republic of Namibia, Ministry of Industrialization and Trade, 2022); yet, the agreement remains non-operational at the border. This gap between de jure and de facto integration deserves greater theoretical attention. Policy adoption and operational implementation should be understood as separate processes, as they unfold at different speeds and are shaped by different practical constraints. The theory of comparative advantage suggests that trade liberalization enables countries to specialize in producing goods where they have a relative efficiency advantage (Aldrich, 2004). Participants' concerns about cheap imports from Angola, with its larger market and lower production costs, indicate that comparative advantage can become comparative disadvantage for economies dominated by infant industries. This pattern reflects recent work showing that liberalization often benefits countries with stronger industrial bases while placing weaker producers at risk (Homos, 2025). Thus, the finding aligns with arguments for strategic trade protection but challenges assumptions that liberalization uniformly benefits all parties. The construct shift here is from absolute gains to distributional consequences: who wins and who loses from integration depends on industrial development levels that vary across countries. 6.2 Mechanisms and boundary conditions Several mechanisms emerge from these findings. First, awareness precedes adaptation. Frontline officers who do not understand AfCFTA cannot adjust their practices to facilitate it. This suggests that information dissemination is a necessary precondition for implementation, not merely a helpful supplement (Crable et al., 2022). Second, infrastructure functions as both an enabling and a constraining factor (Kavishe et al., 2023). Participants consistently identified outdated equipment, insufficient staffing, and a lack of technological advancement as barriers to implementation. The concentration of modernization efforts at Trans-Kalahari rather than Oshikango suggests that peripheral borders may be systematically disadvantaged. Third, informal trade operates through different channels than formal trade (Bensassi et al., 2019). Participants noted that lengthy permit procedures push traders toward illegal channels, suggesting that trade facilitation measures designed for formal commerce may inadvertently increase informal or illicit activity. This represents a boundary condition for trade liberalization theory: benefits depend on whether procedures accommodate the actual composition of traders at a given border. 6.3 Policy and managerial implications These findings yield specific recommendations tied to conditions observed in the data. First, public education should precede full implementation. Participants reported that traders smuggle goods that could be legally imported simply because they misunderstand the procedures. Workshops, literature distribution, and outreach to informal traders could reduce illegal activity while increasing customs revenue, addressing two problems simultaneously. Second, Oshikango should be considered for a one-stop border post status. This arrangement, already in operation between Namibia and Botswana via Trans-Kalahari (Terblanché, 2023), would streamline administrative procedures that currently require traders to navigate multiple agencies. Given Oshikango's trade volumes and strategic position on the Angola border, the investment would likely generate returns through increased formal trade and reduced smuggling. Third, interagency collaboration requires attention. Participants identified misalignments between visa requirements from Home Affairs and the needs of small-scale cross-border traders. Better coordination among ministries could reduce these frictions without requiring changes to underlying policies. Fourth, language support would improve operations. Namibian documents are written in English, while those of Angola are in Portuguese, creating communication barriers. Bilingual documentation and officer training could facilitate smoother transactions with Angolan traders. Fifth, decentralizing permit processes would particularly benefit small-volume traders who currently must route applications through Windhoek despite trading relatively small quantities. Local processing would reduce delays, costs, and incentives to bypass formal channels. 6.4 Limitations and future research This study has limitations that shape interpretation and suggest directions for future work. First, the research focused on a single border post, which limits generalizability to other Namibian borders or borders in other African countries. Comparative studies across multiple border posts, both within Namibia and across countries, would reveal whether the patterns observed at Oshikango reflect local conditions or broader dynamics of AfCFTA implementation. Second, the sample consisted primarily of trade facilitation officers and ministry officials. Traders themselves, particularly informal traders, were not directly interviewed. Future research should capture trader perspectives to understand how implementation affects those most directly engaged in cross-border commerce. Third, the study did not quantify trade volumes, revenue impacts, or other economic indicators. Quantitative analysis could complement these qualitative findings by measuring the magnitude of effects that participants described. 7. Conclusion This study shows that continental trade agreements do not automatically generate local benefits. The AfCFTA is a major policy milestone for African integration, but its influence at peripheral borders such as Oshikango depends on conditions that policy documents alone cannot resolve: infrastructure investment, officer training, public education, interagency coordination, and the treatment of informal traders. The findings identify concrete mechanisms, including awareness, institutional capacity, infrastructure, and the formality of trade, that mediate the relationship between trade policy and economic outcomes in border regions. This framework can help researchers and policymakers anticipate implementation challenges, design targeted interventions, and determine whether the AfCFTA delivers on its promise of continental prosperity where borders meet. Declarations Author contributions statement Martha Tchikwambi: Conceptualization, Data curation, Investigation, Methodology, Writing - original draft, Project administration Karikari Amoa-Gyarteng: Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing - review & editing, Visualization Marius Frederick Johannes: Methodology, Project administration, Software, Validation Disclosure statement There are no interests to declare About the Authors Martha Tchikwambi is a Lecturer at the Namibia University of Science and Technology. She holds an MBA from the University of Namibia. Karikari Amoa-Gyarteng is an academic at the Namibia University of Science and Technology. He holds a PhD from the University of Johannesburg and an MBA from Grand Canyon University, Phoenix, Arizona. Marius Frederick Johannes is a Lecturer at the Namibia Business School. He holds a DBA from the University of Namibia and an MBA from the University of the Witwatersrand. Funding No funding was received. 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M., White, D. E., & Moules, N. J. (2017). Thematic analysis: Striving to meet the trustworthiness criteria. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 16 (1), 1609406917733847. Oyebamiji, O. (2024). Overcoming barriers to intra-African trade: The role of AfCFTA in dismantling colonial crop legitimacy, shipping constraints, and transportation challenges. Journal of Economics and Political Sciences, 4 (1), 1–19. Qureshi, H. A., & Ünlü, Z. (2020). Beyond the paradigm conflicts: A four-step coding instrument for grounded theory. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 19 , 1–10. Republic of Namibia, Ministry of Industrialisation and Trade. (2022). National strategy for implementation of the Agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area, 2022–2027. Government of Namibia. Rouillé, M., Overå, R., & Atter, A. (2024). When borders close: Social networks, resilience and food security among informal cross-border fish traders on the Ghana–Togo border. Maritime Studies, 23 (3), 36. Rwehumbiza, D. A. (2020). Locus and revenue of export manufacturers: Why extra-regional markets? Journal of African Business, 21 (4), 560–577. Sapir, A. (2011). European integration at the crossroads: A review essay on the 50th anniversary of Béla Balassa’s theory of economic integration. Journal of Economic Literature, 49 (4), 1200–1229. Saunders, M., Lewis, P., & Thornhill, A. (2019). Research methods for business students (8th ed.). Pearson Education. Seti, T. M., & Daw, O. D. (2022). The implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area on South African agricultural trade: An application of the partial equilibrium model. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 25 (1), a4302. Settles, J. D. (1996). The impact of colonialism on African economic development (Chancellor’s Honors Program Project). University of Tennessee, Knoxville. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_chanhonoproj/182. Signé, L., & Madden, P. (2021). Considerations for rules of origin under the African Continental Free Trade Area. Journal of African Trade, 8 (Suppl 2), 77–87. Songwe, V., Macleod, J. A., & Karingi, S. (2021). The African Continental Free Trade Area: A historical moment for development in Africa. Journal of African Trade, 8 (Suppl 2), 12–23. Terblanché, N. (2023). Namibia and Botswana launch Mamuno one-stop border post trial run. Windhoek Observer. https://www.observer24.com.na/namibia-and-botswana-launch-mamuno-one-stop-border-post-trial-run/. Thompson, H. (2024). Multilateral comparative advantage: Complex trade with many countries and goods. International Economics and Economic Policy, 21 (1), 285–296. Tracy, S. J. (2010). Qualitative quality: Eight “big-tent” criteria for excellent qualitative research. Qualitative Inquiry, 16 (10), 837–851. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2019). Intra-regional trade: Facts and figures. UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/press-material/facts-figures-0. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2024). Economic development in Africa report 2024: Catalysing intra-African trade for development. United Nations. https://unctad.org/publication/economic-development-africa-report-2024. Yaya, I. M., Ndiaye, C. T., Asongu, S., & Diop, S. (2025). Analysis of the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area on the labour market in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). International Journal of Manpower, 46 (10), 77–102. Additional Declarations The authors declare potential competing interests as follows: None Supplementary Files Appendices.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8740497","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":583000652,"identity":"d2a31df1-60ed-46dc-a78b-917acce08933","order_by":0,"name":"Martha Tchikwambi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Namibia University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Martha","middleName":"","lastName":"Tchikwambi","suffix":""},{"id":583000653,"identity":"e8fe1a7c-dbd0-4b2c-89c4-7a97338e36d9","order_by":1,"name":"Karikari Amoa-Gyarteng","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCSA+AGKwsTcASQMLErTw8YAoAwnitICBnEQCCh83kGw/+/DAzxwbeTbJ51c3/CiQYOBv707Aq0WaJ93gYO+2NMM26Zyymz1Ah0mcObsBrxY5hjSGA7zbDjMCtaTd4AFqMZDIJaCF/xnDwb/bDtu3SZ5Ju/mHGC3SEmkMh4G2JLZJsB+7TZQtkjOeMRyW3ZaW3MaTw3ZbxkCCh6BfJM6nMX98u83Gdn778Wc33/yxkeNv78WvBQnwGIBJYpWDAPsDUlSPglEwCkbBCAIAvu1FsjiaaB0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2232-1169","institution":"Namibia University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Karikari","middleName":"","lastName":"Amoa-Gyarteng","suffix":""},{"id":583000654,"identity":"294de28f-1d40-4ecb-8aaa-566697752316","order_by":2,"name":"Marius Frederick Johannes","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Namibia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marius","middleName":"Frederick","lastName":"Johannes","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-30 11:28:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":true,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":true,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true,"humanSubjectConsent":true,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8740497/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8740497/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101633358,"identity":"e84f47a7-0a11-42f1-8080-699a55ca1150","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-02 06:00:09","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":103346,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThematic network of commodities and trade patterns at Oshikango border post. The diagram displays key commodities traded, factors influencing trade dynamics, changing trade patterns, and economic impacts on border regions.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8740497/v1/0846b708de6c0c424981a2ae.png"},{"id":101633360,"identity":"5e9e2582-040a-48ca-ba73-382de63ec9cb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-02 06:00:09","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":148267,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThematic network of cross-border trade impacts on livelihoods in Oshikango. The diagram displays four main impact categories (Economic Opportunities, Social Impact, Mixed Impact, and Challenges) with their constituent sub-themes as coded in ATLAS.ti.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8740497/v1/e323eb87824bd7609657b266.png"},{"id":101753012,"identity":"6358b58b-55bc-48eb-b09e-dc78dfc1e725","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 10:38:50","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":24599,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eExpected contributions of the AfCFTA to economic empowerment and development at Oshikango. The Venn diagram illustrates the interconnected relationships between cross-border trade (tariff reduction), regional integration (free movement), and the local economy (SME development), with overlapping areas indicating informal trade, economic cooperation, and the impact of the AfCFTA.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8740497/v1/caab85d23578c5639945b0e8.png"},{"id":101756548,"identity":"dc982fed-03ab-47c2-a3f8-9a2a3766d298","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 10:58:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1153547,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8740497/v1/ccec9774-1df5-44c5-a5b7-d348282be7d9.pdf"},{"id":101633361,"identity":"c96b0afb-77af-4baa-8453-daeb0741cbfb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-02 06:00:09","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":353740,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Appendices.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8740497/v1/37b69fd5aa37ad933782b00d.docx"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare potential competing interests as follows: None","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAfCFTA Expectations and Border-Level Implementation Challenges in Southern Africa\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eTrade liberalization has long been recognized as a catalyst for economic development (Eichengreen, 2019), yet Africa remains the least integrated continent in terms of intra-regional commerce. Figures from UNCTAD indicate that only about 16 percent of the continent\u0026rsquo;s total trade occurs between African countries. In contrast, Europe trades far more within its own region, with approximately 68 percent of its exports destined for other European states (UNCTAD, 2024; UNCTAD, 2019). This disparity reflects historical legacies that continue to shape Africa's economic geography. Colonial boundaries, drawn with little regard for existing trade networks or ethnic communities, fragmented what had been functioning regional markets and redirected trade flows toward metropolitan centers in Europe (Gitau, 2019). The result has been a pattern of outward-oriented economies that export raw materials and import manufactured goods (Geda et al., 2028). Consequently, neighboring African countries often compete for access to the same distant markets rather than trading with each other (Rwehumbiza, 2020).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCross-border trade barriers have compounded these structural disadvantages. High tariffs, non-tariff measures, poor transport infrastructure, and cumbersome customs procedures have increased the cost of moving goods across African borders (Bou\u0026euml;t et al., 2017). In many cases, formal trade restrictions have simply pushed commerce into informal channels, with traders crossing borders through unofficial routes to avoid lengthy inspections, unpredictable fees, and complex documentation requirements (Mitaritonna et al., 2017). The persistence of these barriers has constrained economic growth, limited employment opportunities, and reinforced dependence on commodity exports to non-African markets.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn response to these challenges, African leaders signed the African Continental Free Trade Agreement in Kigali, Rwanda, in March 2018 (Songwe et al., 2021). By design, the AfCFTA aims to create the largest free trade area in the world, encompassing the largest number of participating countries, with a combined market of 1.3\u0026nbsp;billion people and a gross domestic product exceeding \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e 2.5 trillion (Bengoa et al., 2021). The agreement is structured in phases. The first phase involves the negotiation of three protocols: Trade in Goods, Trade in Services, and Rules and Procedures for the Settlement of Disputes. A second phase focuses on investment, competition, and intellectual property rights (Maliszewska et al., 2019). Upon full implementation, the AfCFTA requires member states to eliminate tariffs on 90 percent of goods, with an additional 7 percent classified as sensitive products and 3 percent excluded from liberalization.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProponents project substantial gains, boosting trade within Africa by 25 to 30 percent over the next decade and potentially raising intra-African exports by approximately US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e13.7\u0026nbsp;billion, thereby increasing intra-African trade by about 42.6 percent (Geda \u0026amp; Yima, 2023). Despite these ambitious objectives, implementation has been uneven across the continent. Many African countries lack the institutional capacity, infrastructure, and administrative systems needed to operationalize the agreement's provisions. High transaction costs, primarily due to factors like inefficient administrative procedures at border crossings and inadequate infrastructure, as well as the persistent existence of non-tariff barriers, remain pervasive (Gumede, 2021). The gap between policy aspiration and ground-level reality has prompted calls for more empirical research on how the AfCFTA is being received and what obstacles stand in the way of its successful execution.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNamibia presents a distinctive case for such inquiry. The country has acknowledged AfCFTA in its policy plans and confirmed its membership, aligning its development goals with the single-market vision of Agenda 2063. It has also noted some growth in its intra-Africa trade as part of its broader push for regional integration (Namibia National Planning Commission, 2025). Namibia shares borders with four countries and maintains active cross-border trade relationships, particularly with Angola to the north. The Oshikango border post, situated in the Ohangwena Region, approximately 800 kilometers from the capital, Windhoek, serves as a major gateway for commerce between the two countries. Oshikango is the main Namibian border post with Angola and has become one of the fastest-growing towns in the country\u0026rsquo;s north. It sits at the point where the B1, Namibia\u0026rsquo;s primary north\u0026ndash;south transport route, reaches the border. Over time, the northern border posts have grown into active economic centers that link South African ports with Angolan markets. This particular border crossing plays an important commercial role because it offers the most accessible place for goods to move between two different social and administrative systems (Dobler, 2009).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eYet Oshikango also exemplifies the challenges facing peripheral border regions. The infrastructure at the border post is outdated and requires modernization to meet international standards (JICA, 2015). Cargo inspections are time-consuming and often incomplete due to inadequate facilities. Smuggling remains a persistent concern. Permit application procedures are centralized in Windhoek, creating delays and additional costs for small-scale traders. These conditions raise questions about the readiness of such border posts to implement the AfCFTA and to capture its projected benefits.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExisting research on the AfCFTA has relied on the gravity model, which is used to analyze trade flows as part of aggregate trade effects (Yaya et al., 2025). Other studies have employed a global Computable General Equilibrium model to investigate how the AfCFTA impacts production fragmentation and trade flows from a value-added perspective (Fusacchia et al., 2022). Trade-related indicator indices have also been used as a primary methodological approach to assess the agreement\u0026rsquo;s potential for trade creation and diversion (Geda \u0026amp; Yimer, 2023). While these studies generate valuable macro-level projections of trade-creation and diversion, they typically leave unaddressed how the agreement is perceived, anticipated, and experienced by businesses, informal traders, and other ground-level actors.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFew studies have examined perceptions, expectations, and concerns at specific border locations where cross-border trade actually occurs, despite these sites playing a central role in the practical implementation of the AfCFTA. This gap is particularly significant because implementation challenges are likely to vary by context, and local stakeholder buy-in may determine whether policy reforms are effectively translated into practice.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study addresses that gap by investigating how stakeholders at the Oshikango border post perceive the potential impact of the AfCFTA on cross-border trade. The study pursues three objectives: (1) to assess stakeholder awareness and expectations regarding the AfCFTA; (2) to identify perceived opportunities and challenges associated with its implementation; and (3) to examine how current border trade conditions may inform future policy and practice. By focusing the analysis on a specific border post, the study provides ground-level evidence that complements existing aggregate projections and addresses implementation concerns directly.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study offers contributions to policy, practice, and scholarship. For Namibian policymakers, the findings provide guidance on priority areas for intervention, including public education, infrastructure investment, interagency coordination, and decentralization of administrative procedures. Because the AfCFTA requires national adaptation of its provisions, understanding local conditions and stakeholder concerns is essential for designing effective implementation strategies that align with both continental goals and regional realities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor practitioners, including customs officials, border management agencies, and trade facilitation organizations, the study identifies specific barriers that impede legal trade and encourage informal or illicit commerce. Addressing these barriers can improve compliance, reduce revenue leakage, and enhance the legitimacy of formal trade channels. The findings also address the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises and informal traders, who constitute the majority of cross-border traders at Oshikango and who stand to gain or lose depending on how the agreement is implemented. For the academic literature, the study contributes empirical evidence from a frontier border post in a small open economy.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMost AfCFTA research has focused on large economies such as Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt, or has examined aggregate continental effects (Ajewumi et al., 2024; Sign\u0026eacute; \u0026amp; Madden, 2021; Seti \u0026amp; Daw, 2022). Studies of peripheral border regions remain scarce. By documenting perceptions and conditions at Oshikango, this study enriches understanding of the heterogeneous contexts in which the AfCFTA will operate and can serve as a reference point for comparative analysis at other border posts across the continent.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe remainder of this paper proceeds as follows. The next section reviews relevant literature on trade integration in Africa, the development and structure of the AfCFTA, and the theoretical foundations of regional trade agreements. The third section describes the research methodology, including the qualitative design, sampling strategy, data collection procedures, and analytical approach. The fourth section presents findings organized by the study's three objectives. The fifth section discusses the implications of these findings for theory and practice, acknowledges limitations, and identifies directions for future research. The final section concludes with a summary of key takeaways and recommendations.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Theoretical framing and related research","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis study sits at the intersection of four ideas: continental trade liberalization under the AfCFTA, cross-border trade at land borders, local economic development in border towns, and the role of state regulation and policy implementation. The central constructs are therefore the AfCFTA as a continental trade agreement, cross-border trade and trade openness at Oshikango, local socio-economic development, and government regulation and implementation strategies. The study also engages stakeholders\u0026rsquo; awareness and expectations of AfCFTA, since perceptions shape how traders and officials respond to new rules in practice.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1 Classical trade and integration theories\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eClassical trade theory provides the first lens. Comparative advantage theory posits that countries benefit when they specialize in goods they can produce relatively efficiently and trade for goods they produce less efficiently (Thompson, 2024). In the African context, this logic is expanded by the Heckscher\u0026ndash;Ohlin factor endowment model, which explains trade patterns based on differences in labor, capital, land, and natural resource endowments across countries (Baskaran et al., 2011). From this standpoint, AfCFTA is expected to reduce intra-African trade barriers, encourage specialization based on resource strengths, expand opportunities for importing goods that cannot be produced competitively, and raise welfare through more efficient resource allocation (Abrego et al., 2020).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBalassa\u0026rsquo;s theory of economic integration adds a second layer. It distinguishes stages of integration, starting with a free trade area and potentially moving toward customs unions, common markets, and deeper unions (Sapir, 2011). The AfCFTA is formally a free trade area, but it is embedded within existing regional economic communities, such as SADC and SACU, and is often presented as a building block toward a more unified African market (Fofack \u0026amp; Mold, 2021). This framing positions AfCFTA as part of a longer historical project of regional integration and Pan-African cooperation, rather than a single technical instrument.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGravity models of trade provide a third theoretical strand that focuses on mechanisms. Gravity theory explains trade flows as a function of the economic size of countries and the costs of trading between them (Baier et al., 2018). Donaubauer et al. (2018) show that these \u0026ldquo;trade costs\u0026rdquo; include distance, infrastructure, border procedures, and non-tariff barriers. Studies that apply gravity models to African regional agreements find that when countries reduce border-related frictions, intra-regional trade volumes tend to rise (Ngepah \u0026amp; Udeagha, 2018; Afesorgbor, 2017). For a border post such as Oshikango, gravity thinking directs attention to infrastructure quality, the ease of documentation, and the predictability of enforcement as key channels through which AfCFTA might affect trade.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2 Trade integration, border towns, and informal trade\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eA second broad stream of work links trade integration to African development and the history of borders. Scholars of globalization and African economic history demonstrate how colonial boundary-making and outward-oriented trade patterns fragmented pre-existing regional markets, drawing African economies toward European centers (Settles, 1996; Bah et al., 2018; Albers et al., 2023; Michalopoulos \u0026amp; Papaioannou, 2020). Later Pan-African and regional integration efforts, from the African Economic Community to today\u0026rsquo;s AfCFTA, can be read as attempts to reverse this pattern and promote \u0026ldquo;Africa trading with itself\u0026rdquo; (Oyebamiji, 2024; Aniche, 2020).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAt the same time, empirical work on cross-border trade reveals that African borders are busy spaces where formal and informal activities coexist. Informal cross-border trade often accounts for a significant share of food and consumer goods flows, providing livelihoods for low-income traders, particularly women (Rouill\u0026eacute; et al., 2024). Studies of Oshikango and similar border towns demonstrate how trade booms can transform local economies (Kainuma \u0026amp; Saito, 2022), but also create regulatory dilemmas related to smuggling, taxation, and urban planning (Ngo \u0026amp; Hung, 2024). Recent AfCFTA-focused work adds a third layer to this picture. Model-based studies project sizeable gains in intra-African trade and income if AfCFTA is fully implemented, but they also highlight uneven benefits and the need for complementary policies (Fussachia et al., 2021; Moyo, 2023). Policy analyses and commentaries emphasize that real progress hinges on infrastructure upgrades, enhanced customs management, and strengthened institutional capacity at both national and regional levels (Apiko et al., 2020; Gumede, 2021).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Research Questions","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis study examines how the AfCFTA is anticipated at the Oshikango border post through three focused questions:\u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eHow do cross-border trade activities shape socio-economic development in Oshikango?\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHow are AfCFTA-related rules understood and applied by officers and stakeholders at the border?\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhat practical measures could strengthen Namibia\u0026rsquo;s implementation of the AfCFTA at peripheral border posts such as Oshikango?\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"4. Method","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1 Approach\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe study adopted a qualitative, mono-method design grounded in a constructivist ontology. The researchers treated realities around cross-border trade and AfCFTA implementation as socially constructed through the experiences and interpretations of traders, customs officials, policymakers, and local authorities, rather than as fixed, purely objective facts (Saunders et al., 2019). Grounded theory principles guided knowledge development, with an emphasis on learning from participants\u0026rsquo; accounts that allowed codes and themes to emerge from the data rather than forcing them into a predetermined model (Qureshi \u0026amp; Unlu, 2020).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGiven the focus on one border post and its policy environment, the project functioned as a qualitative case centered on Oshikango, with an additional institutional layer at the ministerial level. This design aligned with the research questions, which aimed to understand how the AfCFTA is interpreted, anticipated, and implemented in a specific setting, and how individuals on the ground make sense of a new trade framework.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.2 Site and participants\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe empirical setting was the Oshikango border post in northern Namibia and ministerial offices in Windhoek. Oshikango is Namibia\u0026rsquo;s only inland border town and a major crossing point for trade with Angola. The unit of analysis was cross-border trade and AfCFTA implementation at Oshikango; the units of observation were individuals involved in trade facilitation and policy. The population consisted of 38 trade officers employed at the Oshikango border post. The study employed a purposive heterogeneous sampling approach to target individuals most likely to possess relevant knowledge (Saunders et al., 2019).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA target sample of 35 participants was identified from the total population of 38 to allow broad coverage of stakeholder categories. Ultimately, 23 interviews were completed (a response rate of 66 percent), which is acceptable for qualitative research focused on rich, experience-based accounts (Saunders et al., 2019; Tracy, 2010). Participants were drawn from two groups: trade facilitation officers at the Oshikango border post and officials from the Ministry of Industrialization and Trade, as well as the Namibia Revenue Agency (NAMRA) in Windhoek. This combination linked frontline operational experience at the border to policy and strategic perspectives at the national level.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.3 Data collection\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eData was gathered through semi-structured, face-to-face interviews using an open-ended interview guide. The instrument was developed based on the research objectives and then piloted with a trade facilitation officer at NAMRA\u0026rsquo;s cross-border trade division. The pilot led to the restructuring of nine initial questions in terms of wording, key concepts, and allocation of questions between border-level and ministerial-level participants, in line with guidance on pilot work in qualitative research (Saunders et al., 2019).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFieldwork followed a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, interviews were conducted at Oshikango with trade facilitation officers who manage daily operations and interact directly with traders. In the second stage, interviews were held at the Ministry of Industrialization and Trade and at NAMRA headquarters in Windhoek to obtain specialist views on national AfCFTA implementation and regulatory design. Interviews followed a progression from introductory to more demanding questions to put participants at ease. With participants\u0026rsquo; permission, conversations were audio-recorded. Each interview lasted long enough to cover the entire guide, and all 23 were completed as single-session conversations.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.4 Data analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eData analysis drew on grounded-theory principles of iterative coding and constant comparison (Charmaz, 2006; Qureshi \u0026amp; Unlu, 2020). In line with guidance that grounded theory benefits from simultaneous data collection and analysis, the researchers organized the work in stages. After each wave of interviews (border and ministerial), recordings were transcribed and imported into ATLAS.ti for coding. Open coding was employed to identify concepts within participants\u0026rsquo; words, which were then grouped into categories and broader themes aligned with the study's objectives. Codes and themes were compared across participants and between the border-level and ministerial-level interviews to identify convergences and differences. The findings were presented using charts, tables, and figures generated from ATLAS.ti output, followed by a narrative explanation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrustworthiness was addressed in several ways (Korstjens \u0026amp; Moser, 2017). For credibility, participants were selected based on their direct roles in trade facilitation or policy, and interviews were conducted individually to facilitate candid responses. For transferability, the setting, participants, and procedures were described in detail so that readers can assess the relevance of the findings to other borders. Dependability and confirmability were supported by maintaining a clear audit trail: interviews were recorded, stored on a secure network location (Nowell et al., 2017), and systematically transcribed and coded. This allowed for the tracing of analytic decisions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.5 Ethics\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eEthical conduct adhered to the University of Namibia\u0026rsquo;s research ethics code and a deontological approach, which prioritizes the rights of participants (Koali et al., 2024). Access permission for the border site was obtained through the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Trade. Participation was voluntary; individuals were informed about the purpose of the study, their right to decline or withdraw, and the intended use of the data. Informed consent was obtained prior to the interviews, and permission to record was obtained for each session. Confidentiality was maintained by anonymizing participants in transcripts and reporting only aggregated findings.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5. Findings","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis section presents findings from 23 participants, including trade facilitation officers at the Oshikango border post and officials from the Ministry of Industrialization and Trade and the Namibia Revenue Agency in Windhoek.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.1 Cross-border trade and socio-economic development of Oshikango\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eCross-border trade has been the driving force behind Oshikango's growth. Following Namibian independence, demand from Angola created business opportunities that transformed a truck stop into a multicultural commercial hub. Infrastructure followed commerce: retail shops multiplied, government services expanded, and entrepreneurs from multiple countries established warehouses and trading operations. As Participant 3 explained, the town \"\u003cem\u003ewas initially established to cater for truck drivers who would need accommodation, as the population at the border grew, other activities started happening\u003c/em\u003e.\" The town now hosts a mix of original village residents, businesspeople engaged in cross-border trade, government employees, and participants acknowledged candidly, individuals involved in illegal activities near the border.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomic benefits reach residents through multiple channels. Those living near the border access cheaper Angolan goods and save on transport costs that inland Namibians must pay when traveling to purchase goods for resale. Currency advantages currently favor Namibian traders, who can buy more in Angola. Trade commodities encompass a wide range of items, including food, vehicles, agricultural products, furniture, clothing, and services such as medical care, with goods flowing predominantly from Namibia to Angola through bonded warehouses (see Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to Participant 5, some villages predated the border post itself, meaning original residents found themselves incorporated into a growing commercial center. Yet administrative barriers constrain this potential. Lengthy permit procedures push traders, particularly those in the informal sector, toward illegal channels. Even small-volume traders face import duties that seem disproportionate to their transaction size, with participants noting that the amount of import duties that individuals must pay on commodities creates burdens even when trade volumes are small. The COVID-19 pandemic led to sharp declines in border activity, and inflation and smuggling persist as ongoing problems.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrade patterns have undergone significant shifts over time. Participants 1 and 9 both emphasized that most clients now come from Angola to purchase in Namibia, reversing earlier flows. As Participant 9 recalled, \"\u003cem\u003eBack in the years, there were a lot of bonded warehouses in Oshikango border post, mostly were cars, motor vehicles, and furniture. By that time, because we were having many bonded warehouses selling to the Angolan people, and business was mostly established for the Angolan people\u003c/em\u003e.\" Participant 1 noted that commodities have also shifted: \"\u003cem\u003eWhat is being traded more now compared to the past is food items, like Namibians to go Angola [sic] they source food, then they come and sell food\u003c/em\u003e. \u003cem\u003eIt is mostly food [sic], vegetables and clothing would come second, and now with the illegal petrol it is [sic] one of the most sought after commodity it the petrol [sic]\u003c/em\u003e.\u003cem\u003e\u0026rdquo;\u003c/em\u003e Several factors influence these dynamics, including consumer needs, economic conditions on the Angolan side, drought, and seasonal availability (see Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec14\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.2 Implementation of AfCFTA regulations and perceived impacts\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAwareness of the AfCFTA among frontline officers was strikingly limited. Most reported knowing about the agreement only through news reports, with a limited understanding of its objectives or relevance to their daily work. Participant 1 captured the prevailing sentiment: \u003cem\u003e\"I would say that there is little that I know about the agreement, as I have read about it, but as per the implementation and so [sic]\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003ewe do not [sic] really know much about it.\"\u003c/em\u003e In a similar vein, Participant 11 acknowledged: \u003cem\u003e\"I cannot really say I am well informed about it, I hear about it, and maybe we are practicing it without knowing. However, my understanding is more or less about cross-border country trade, which happens between countries like Namibia and Angola.\"\u003c/em\u003e Participant 18 assessed implementation at the border as weak: \"\u003cem\u003eI think here at Oshikango border, it is not well implemented, I would say. Mostly at the head office, they usually give us training.\"\u003c/em\u003e (See Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrontline Officer Awareness and Preparedness for AfCFTA Implementation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCategory\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eKey Findings\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRepresentative Quotes\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLevel of Awareness\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMost participants have limited knowledge about AfCFTA, mainly from reading or the news. Many express a lack of deep understanding.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u0026ldquo;I would say that there is little that I know about the agreement, as I have read about it, but as per the implementation and so [sic]\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003ewe do not [sic] really know much about it.\u0026rdquo;-\u003c/em\u003eParticipant 1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnderstanding of Impact\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLimited understanding of specific impacts. Some relate it to cross-border trade or customs procedures.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u0026ldquo;I cannot really say I am well informed about it, I hear about it, and maybe we are practicing it without knowing. However, my understanding is more or less about cross-border country trade, which happens between countries like Namibia and Angola.\"\u003c/em\u003e - Participant 11\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eChallenges\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLack of facilities for implementation, complications due to non-membership of some countries in regional agreements, and limited application beyond SADC countries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"\u003cem\u003eWhen it comes to Oshikango border, there are no facilities that are helping us to implement free trade\u003c/em\u003e\" - Participant 9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreparedness\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome training provided, but implementation seems limited. Information sharing occurs through meetings and digital platforms.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"\u003cem\u003eI think here at Oshikango border, it is not well implemented, I would say. Mostly at the head office, they usually give us training\u0026rdquo;\u003c/em\u003e- Participant 18\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen asked about regulatory changes since Namibia signed the AfCFTA in 2019, border-level participants were unable to identify specific facilitating procedures. They instead referenced general improvements following the establishment of NAMRA as a parastatal. Participants 6, 15, and 16 highlighted simplified administration and increased revenue, rather than AfCFTA-specific measures. Infrastructure gaps compounded the problem. As Participant 9 put it bluntly: \"\u003cem\u003eWhen it comes to Oshikango border, there are no facilities that are helping us to implement free trade.\u003c/em\u003e\"\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMinisterial officials provided crucial context. The Ministry has developed a National Implementation Strategy and established an AfCFTA committee; however, the agreement remains non-operational in SADC while countries ratify their tariff offers.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eParticipant 3 from the ministerial level clarified that Namibia's offer is submitted through SACU as a unified submission, meaning countries retain the right to agree or disagree on specific commodities, particularly regarding tariff reductions. Current trade with other African countries is conducted under Most Favored Nation terms, rather than AfCFTA provisions. NAMRA has introduced an advance ruling for importers and exporters and implemented SACU agreements on mutual recognition and electronic document exchange, but these efforts have concentrated on the Trans-Kalahari border post rather than Oshikango.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDespite implementation gaps, participants anticipated substantial benefits from eventual operationalization. Three key expected gains dominated responses: tariff reduction, increased cross-border trade volumes, simplified procedures that enable SME development and market access, and regional integration, facilitating the freer movement of people and goods. These benefits were expected to particularly advantage young entrepreneurs and informal traders (see Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConcerns tempered this optimism. Participants 3 and 4 from the ministerial level warned that competition from countries with lower production costs, such as Angola, could flood Namibia with cheap imports that would disadvantage local entrepreneurs. Participants 2 and 3 emphasized that Namibia's small domestic market consists largely of infant industries requiring protection. Participant 4 noted, however, that the agreement makes provision for negotiations on sensitive products to ensure countries are not disadvantaged.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec15\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.3 Suggested improvements for AfCFTA implementation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eParticipants offered concrete, actionable recommendations. Public education emerged as the most frequent need; the ministry needs to inform traders about legal trade procedures and the consequences of smuggling. As the findings indicate, some traders smuggle goods that could be legally imported simply because they misunderstand the requirements. Multiple participants emphasized that education could address various border challenges, including illegal trade. Establishing Oshikango as a one-stop border post was repeatedly recommended to streamline currently fragmented procedures across multiple agencies. Pre-clearance mechanisms would help traders know the requirements before arrival. Interagency collaboration could address misalignments. Participant 1 highlighted that visa requirements from Home Affairs are too stringent for small-scale traders who do not reside in Namibia but regularly cross the border to sell items from Angola.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLanguage barriers require attention: Namibian documents are written in English, while those of Angola are in Portuguese, creating communication difficulties with Angolan citizens and officials. Infrastructure improvements were consistently requested. Participants highlighted outdated equipment, insufficient human capital, and a lack of technological advancement at the border post. Decentralizing permit processes would reduce delays and costs for small-volume traders who currently must route applications through Windhoek.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec16\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.4 Negative cases and alternative explanations\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eNot all participants viewed AfCFTA implementation optimistically. Skepticism centered on whether benefits would materialize at Oshikango given its distance from policy centers and persistent infrastructure deficits. The concentration of modernization efforts in the Trans-Kalahari suggests that peripheral borders may be lower priorities for national strategy. The disconnect between Namibia's 2019 ratification and frontline officers' minimal awareness indicates a gap between policy adoption and operational readiness.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis may reflect communication failures or rational behavior; officers focus on current procedures because the AfCFTA preferential regime has not yet been widely implemented in practice within the SADC region. Competition concerns were grounded in existing dynamics, not merely anticipated ones. Participants 3 and 4 pointed to specific examples of how lower-priced goods from countries like Angola already affect local businesses.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary of Emergent Themes Across Research Questions\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eResearch Question\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eKey Themes\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCore Evidence\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSocio-economic contribution\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomic growth through trade; infrastructure follows commerce; administrative barriers limit potential; shifting trade patterns\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTown transformed from truck stop to multicultural hub (Participant 3); permits push traders to informal channels; clients now mainly Angolan buyers (Participants 1, 9)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eImplementation and impacts\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLimited frontline awareness; no AfCFTA-specific procedures at Oshikango; anticipated benefits tempered by competition concerns\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOfficers learned of AfCFTA from the news only (Participants 1, 11, 18); infant industries need protection (Participants 2, 3, 4)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuggested improvements\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePublic education; one-stop border post; interagency collaboration; language support; infrastructure investment; decentralized permits\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSmuggling occurs from procedure ignorance; visa rules too strict (Participant 1); no facilities for free trade implementation (Participant 9)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese findings reveal a consistent pattern: Oshikango's economy relies heavily on cross-border trade; however, administrative and infrastructure constraints limit its development, and the AfCFTA has yet to translate into observable changes despite national ratification. The puzzle of whether continental agreements can deliver benefits to peripheral border regions remains unresolved at Oshikango, where stakeholders anticipate positive impacts but identify substantial barriers to realization.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"6. Discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis study inquired whether the African Continental Free Trade Area can deliver meaningful benefits to peripheral border regions, and the answer from Oshikango is not yet forthcoming, nor is it without substantial groundwork. The findings reveal that while cross-border trade has driven Oshikango's development for decades, the AfCFTA remains a policy abstraction at the border post level, with frontline officers largely unaware of the agreement and no specific implementation measures in place since Namibia's ratification in 2019.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec18\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e6.1 Theoretical contributions\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese findings extend and challenge existing theoretical perspectives on regional trade integration. The Economic Gravity Model predicts that reduced trade barriers between countries will increase trade volumes in proportion to their economic mass and inversely proportional to the distance between them (Jadhav \u0026amp; Ghosh, 2024). Our evidence partially supports this: participants anticipated that tariff reductions would boost cross-border trade, and the close proximity of Angola, Namibia's northern neighbor, has indeed made Oshikango a trading hub. However, the findings reveal boundary conditions that gravity models typically overlook. Administrative barriers, infrastructure deficits, and information gaps function as friction that can neutralize the benefits of tariff reduction. Distance matters, but so does institutional readiness.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findings also refine Balassa's (1961) stages of economic integration. Balassa's framework assumes progressive movement from free trade areas through customs unions toward full economic integration. Oshikango's experience suggests that formal ratification does not necessarily equate to functional integration. Namibia has ratified the AfCFTA and submitted tariff offers through SACU (Republic of Namibia, Ministry of Industrialization and Trade, 2022); yet, the agreement remains non-operational at the border. This gap between de jure and de facto integration deserves greater theoretical attention. Policy adoption and operational implementation should be understood as separate processes, as they unfold at different speeds and are shaped by different practical constraints.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe theory of comparative advantage suggests that trade liberalization enables countries to specialize in producing goods where they have a relative efficiency advantage (Aldrich, 2004). Participants' concerns about cheap imports from Angola, with its larger market and lower production costs, indicate that comparative advantage can become comparative disadvantage for economies dominated by infant industries. This pattern reflects recent work showing that liberalization often benefits countries with stronger industrial bases while placing weaker producers at risk (Homos, 2025). Thus, the finding aligns with arguments for strategic trade protection but challenges assumptions that liberalization uniformly benefits all parties. The construct shift here is from absolute gains to distributional consequences: who wins and who loses from integration depends on industrial development levels that vary across countries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec19\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e6.2 Mechanisms and boundary conditions\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeveral mechanisms emerge from these findings. First, awareness precedes adaptation. Frontline officers who do not understand AfCFTA cannot adjust their practices to facilitate it. This suggests that information dissemination is a necessary precondition for implementation, not merely a helpful supplement (Crable et al., 2022). Second, infrastructure functions as both an enabling and a constraining factor (Kavishe et al., 2023). Participants consistently identified outdated equipment, insufficient staffing, and a lack of technological advancement as barriers to implementation. The concentration of modernization efforts at Trans-Kalahari rather than Oshikango suggests that peripheral borders may be systematically disadvantaged.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThird, informal trade operates through different channels than formal trade (Bensassi et al., 2019). Participants noted that lengthy permit procedures push traders toward illegal channels, suggesting that trade facilitation measures designed for formal commerce may inadvertently increase informal or illicit activity. This represents a boundary condition for trade liberalization theory: benefits depend on whether procedures accommodate the actual composition of traders at a given border.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec20\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e6.3 Policy and managerial implications\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese findings yield specific recommendations tied to conditions observed in the data. First, public education should precede full implementation. Participants reported that traders smuggle goods that could be legally imported simply because they misunderstand the procedures. Workshops, literature distribution, and outreach to informal traders could reduce illegal activity while increasing customs revenue, addressing two problems simultaneously.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecond, Oshikango should be considered for a one-stop border post status. This arrangement, already in operation between Namibia and Botswana via Trans-Kalahari (Terblanch\u0026eacute;, 2023), would streamline administrative procedures that currently require traders to navigate multiple agencies. Given Oshikango's trade volumes and strategic position on the Angola border, the investment would likely generate returns through increased formal trade and reduced smuggling. Third, interagency collaboration requires attention. Participants identified misalignments between visa requirements from Home Affairs and the needs of small-scale cross-border traders. Better coordination among ministries could reduce these frictions without requiring changes to underlying policies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFourth, language support would improve operations. Namibian documents are written in English, while those of Angola are in Portuguese, creating communication barriers. Bilingual documentation and officer training could facilitate smoother transactions with Angolan traders. Fifth, decentralizing permit processes would particularly benefit small-volume traders who currently must route applications through Windhoek despite trading relatively small quantities. Local processing would reduce delays, costs, and incentives to bypass formal channels.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec21\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e6.4 Limitations and future research\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study has limitations that shape interpretation and suggest directions for future work. First, the research focused on a single border post, which limits generalizability to other Namibian borders or borders in other African countries. Comparative studies across multiple border posts, both within Namibia and across countries, would reveal whether the patterns observed at Oshikango reflect local conditions or broader dynamics of AfCFTA implementation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecond, the sample consisted primarily of trade facilitation officers and ministry officials. Traders themselves, particularly informal traders, were not directly interviewed. Future research should capture trader perspectives to understand how implementation affects those most directly engaged in cross-border commerce. Third, the study did not quantify trade volumes, revenue impacts, or other economic indicators. Quantitative analysis could complement these qualitative findings by measuring the magnitude of effects that participants described.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"7. Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis study shows that continental trade agreements do not automatically generate local benefits. The AfCFTA is a major policy milestone for African integration, but its influence at peripheral borders such as Oshikango depends on conditions that policy documents alone cannot resolve: infrastructure investment, officer training, public education, interagency coordination, and the treatment of informal traders. The findings identify concrete mechanisms, including awareness, institutional capacity, infrastructure, and the formality of trade, that mediate the relationship between trade policy and economic outcomes in border regions. This framework can help researchers and policymakers anticipate implementation challenges, design targeted interventions, and determine whether the AfCFTA delivers on its promise of continental prosperity where borders meet.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor contributions statement\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMartha Tchikwambi: Conceptualization, Data curation, Investigation, Methodology, Writing - original draft, Project administration\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eKarikari Amoa-Gyarteng: Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing - review \u0026amp; editing, Visualization\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMarius Frederick Johannes: Methodology, Project administration, Software, Validation\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDisclosure statement\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are no interests to declare\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAbout the Authors\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMartha Tchikwambi\u003c/strong\u003e is a Lecturer at the Namibia University of Science and Technology. She holds an MBA from the University of Namibia.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eKarikari Amoa-Gyarteng\u003c/strong\u003e is an academic at the Namibia University of Science and Technology. He holds a PhD from the University of Johannesburg and an MBA from Grand Canyon University, Phoenix, Arizona.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMarius Frederick Johannes\u003c/strong\u003e is a Lecturer at the Namibia Business School. He holds a DBA from the University of Namibia and an MBA from the University of the Witwatersrand.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo funding was received.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eORCID\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Karikari Amoa-Gyarteng http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2232-1169\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eData availability statement\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe data that supports the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, [K.A.G], upon reasonable request\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAbrego, M. L., de Zamaroczy, M. M., Gursoy, T., Nicholls, G. P., Perez-Saiz, H., \u0026amp; Rosas, J. N. 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Analysis of the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area on the labour market in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). \u003cem\u003eInternational Journal of Manpower, 46\u003c/em\u003e(10), 77\u0026ndash;102.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"NA","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"AfCFTA, Cross-border trade, Trade implementation, Regional governance, SMEs, Informal trade, Namibia, Border policy","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8740497/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8740497/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper examines how individuals at a major Southern African border point perceive the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It draws on 23 interviews with customs officers, traders, transporters, and institutional officials to explore their expectations and the conditions shaping readiness at the Oshikango crossing between Namibia and Angola. The findings show that cross-border trade supports local livelihoods; however, most participants were unfamiliar with the AfCFTA beyond what they had heard in general news. Their daily work is shaped by limited facilities, slow procedures, language challenges, and unclear permit rules. Many worried about cheaper imports. The study argues that clearer communication, improved infrastructure, and better coordination between agencies are essential for meaningful progress.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"AfCFTA Expectations and Border-Level Implementation Challenges in Southern Africa","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-02 06:00:04","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8740497/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"110bebc1-f587-4a08-bee6-7f51bd65762f","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 2nd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":62026683,"name":"International Business"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-02T06:00:05+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-02 06:00:04","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8740497","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8740497","identity":"rs-8740497","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}