Reversible Atlantic overturning despite continued Greenland Ice Sheet melt

Reversible Atlantic overturning despite continued Greenland Ice Sheet melt | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Reversible Atlantic overturning despite continued Greenland Ice Sheet melt Chuncheng Guo, Shuting Yang, Ilana Schiller-Weiss, Jorge Bernales, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7830432/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key component of the Earth’s climate system, has long been considered vulnerable to irreversible weakening or collapse under global warming and related Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melt, yet its resilience remains uncertain. Here, we use a CO2-emission-driven Earth system model with an interactive GrIS to assess AMOC reversibility under idealised CO2 emission pathways that produce near-linear global warming up to 10 K, stabilisation across 1.5-9 K, and subsequent cooling. We find that although the AMOC attains “collapsed” states by commonly used threshold definitions, these weakened states do not represent dynamical tipping: the overturning weakens quasi-linearly with global temperature increase, yet consistently and promptly recovers under cooling. In contrast, GrIS mass loss accelerates with warming, continues through stabilisations, and is only slowed by cooling, committing the planet to long-term sea-level rise. These results reveal a striking asymmetry in Earth-system resilience: under transient CO2 forcing, the AMOC strength remains dynamically reversible even under continued Greenland meltwater input, whereas the GrIS is locked into persistent decline. Our findings underscore the urgency of rapid emission cuts to limit climate overshoot, AMOC weakening, and irreversible ice-sheet loss. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7830432","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":529297365,"identity":"8eaac498-5310-4da9-b0ab-7965964eb5fc","order_by":0,"name":"Chuncheng 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Here, we use a CO2-emission-driven Earth system model with an interactive GrIS to assess AMOC reversibility under idealised CO2 emission pathways that produce near-linear global warming up to 10 K, stabilisation across 1.5-9 K, and subsequent cooling. We find that although the AMOC attains “collapsed” states by commonly used threshold definitions, these weakened states do not represent dynamical tipping: the overturning weakens quasi-linearly with global temperature increase, yet consistently and promptly recovers under cooling. In contrast, GrIS mass loss accelerates with warming, continues through stabilisations, and is only slowed by cooling, committing the planet to long-term sea-level rise. These results reveal a striking asymmetry in Earth-system resilience: under transient CO2 forcing, the AMOC strength remains dynamically reversible even under continued Greenland meltwater input, whereas the GrIS is locked into persistent decline. 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