Real Infection Spreading Rates for the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine estimated with the Use of the Novel Reproduction Number

Real Infection Spreading Rates for the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine estimated with the Use of the Novel Reproduction Number | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Real Infection Spreading Rates for the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine estimated with the Use of the Novel Reproduction Number Igor Nesteruk This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7710352/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Two subvariants of the Omicron strains NB.1.8.1 and XFG caused the rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases registered in Ukraine in the summer of 2025. In this regard, there is a need for objective estimates of the recent infection spreading rate and its comparison with previous periods of the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently proposed new reproduction numbers enable the estimation of the ratio of the actual number of infected individuals (registered and hidden) at different periods without the need for integration of differential equations and identification of the model parameters. The simple method of calculation was applied without smoothing the weekly datasets. The results for the period 2020–2023 and the summer of 2025 are presented and compared with calculations of the effective reproduction number available in the literature. The new reproduction number and the method for estimating it can be recommended as a simple tool for controlling real epidemic dynamics. mathematical modeling infectious diseases hidden epidemic dynamics the COVID-19 pandemic new COVID-19 wave in Ukraine Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7710352","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":520406591,"identity":"de7431ee-0444-499f-a503-234a7521b06e","order_by":0,"name":"Igor 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