Is it plugged in? Impact of Vehicle-to-grid and the Connecting Behavior on the European Power System

Is it plugged in? Impact of Vehicle-to-grid and the Connecting Behavior on the European Power System | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Is it plugged in? Impact of Vehicle-to-grid and the Connecting Behavior on the European Power System Michael Bucksteeg, Hengsi Chen, Mensur Delic, Stefan Poier This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8784558/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to become a major source of flexibility in decarbonized power systems, yet most energy-system studies assume that parked vehicles are always plugged in. This assumption lacks empirical foundation and may bias estimates of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) potential. Here, we combine large-scale survey data on plug-in behavior with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework to generate time-resolved availability profiles for Europe’s future EV fleet. We integrate these profiles into the open-source E2M2s optimization model to assess impacts on renewable integration, system adequacy, grid expansion, and costs. We find that realistic plug-in probabilities peak at only about 25%, substantially reshaping the optimal generation mix, reducing solar PV value, and weakening V2G-based peak shaving. While high availability yields short-term benefits (€5.7 billion in 2030), these are constrained by limited technological readiness and decline as the EV fleet expands. Our results highlight the central role of user behavior in power system transformation and provide a benchmark for future modeling and policy design. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy and behaviour Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy supply and demand Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Ethics statement The study protocol was reviewed and approved by the Local Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Psychology at FernUniversität in Hagen. The survey was conducted in accordance with applicable ethical guidelines and institutional regulations. Participant consent statement All participants provided informed consent prior to participation. The survey was administered via the professional online panel provider CINT, and all responses were collected anonymously. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8784558","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":593577398,"identity":"36452158-fd94-4268-b4b1-a8fd93a50503","order_by":0,"name":"Michael Bucksteeg","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABVklEQVRIie2Rv0vDQBTHXzi4LtfMd6Q0f4GQEEgsLf4fblcO6iI6uFQomC7p0j9AcfBfsJtjy0G7RFwVBQuBTF0CDiliNU0zpD/UVSSf4e4d3/fhHjyAgoK/CAKcnPtgLMuUUnea3hhI1jPcpdBM4UlNpPGzAlsKFUaW7Fb2eiicxm0KDhWBOY8bVf0wUILzO3miQnkUvbVfQJ24ecWW2DH7PoXaZcsShLcs81kg896XZxhUoVX8EJg/XFcIpmUvGezxGEngsjm4Ph2zriebnj4zNObJJOKbCvtYrJRRzD8vBleyNE8VINY7WyTK63RT0cruSuGED7lOEVYyxWaRu/wF1hVsa5UxJbV+aFmkJcxbIlAy2FGq1GEsCfPXB3uQIZt1GlWnJAIWNw50vSeVqOvVmzcusZ7ijqyqk63F5FcAYORzRPLRd+hu7qHEv/YXFBQU/H++ACpQdipTysvwAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5409-3693","institution":"FernUniversität in Hagen","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michael","middleName":"","lastName":"Bucksteeg","suffix":""},{"id":593577399,"identity":"c56888c6-fdef-4b2f-949b-2bf51f10c88f","order_by":1,"name":"Hengsi Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"FernUniversität in Hagen","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hengsi","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":593577400,"identity":"c488b197-f4c8-4794-91b0-f0c641f7cdcc","order_by":2,"name":"Mensur Delic","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1881-0931","institution":"FernUniversität in Hagen","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mensur","middleName":"","lastName":"Delic","suffix":""},{"id":593577401,"identity":"ada9c472-be59-4e27-a319-7c96ff35a2f9","order_by":3,"name":"Stefan Poier","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5948-4738","institution":"FernUniversität in Hagen","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stefan","middleName":"","lastName":"Poier","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-04 09:45:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8784558/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8784558/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103505915,"identity":"7c7a4d05-8a4c-4845-833b-13a9dab361a8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-26 13:33:29","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3880301,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptBucksteegetalV2Gv2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8784558/v1_covered_2f5a1f1f-1869-4444-a3d6-b1efd2617c16.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eThere is \u003cstrong\u003eNO\u003c/strong\u003e Competing Interest.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEthics statement The study protocol was reviewed and approved by the Local Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Psychology at FernUniversität in Hagen. 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