Dust-driven cloud microphysical processes weaken or even reverse Arctic warming

Dust-driven cloud microphysical processes weaken or even reverse Arctic warming | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Dust-driven cloud microphysical processes weaken or even reverse Arctic warming Xiaoyu Sun, Denghui Ji, Christoph Ritter, Justus Notholt This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9447510/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Arctic does not show a uniform warming, some regions even experience a cooling. We show that during winter, the Arctic warming becomes self-limited once a temperature threshold is crossed. This behavior is controlled by dust-driven cloud microphysical processes, occurring near 251 K. Regions colder than 251 K on ground exhibit increasing cloud emissivity over time, enhancing downward longwave radiation and increasing the surface warming. In contrast, regions exceeding 251 K show decreasing emissivity with increasing dust, producing a cooling tendency. We attribute this nonlinear response to the onset of an efficient Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen processing in clouds, where ice crystals grow at the expense of supercooled liquid droplets. As temperatures approach a critical value of 251 K, enhanced ice nucleation accelerates liquid droplet depletion, thus modifying cloud phase partitioning, thereby altering cloud longwave emissivity. CMIP6 experiments with doubled mineral dust emissions reproduce this temperature-dependent dust–cloud–radiative response. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9447510","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":626410173,"identity":"d3d47f41-0941-403c-bb29-607b46daf5fb","order_by":0,"name":"Xiaoyu Sun","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAz0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZijNDyISCkjRItkA0mJAim0GB8AkMSqPMz988LHtsL3x+dWJHx4YMMjzix3Ar0Wymc3YcGbb4cRtN95ulgA6zHDm7AT8WviZGcykedsOJ5jdOLsBpCXB4DYBLWzM7N9AWuyNZ5zd/IMoLfzMPGBbGDfw924jzhbJZp5iwxnn0hNn3ODdZpFgIEHYLwbnj2988KHM2p6//+zmmz8qbOT5pQloAQNGNiAhAVYpQYRyMPgDxPwHiFU9CkbBKBgFIw0AANXqQTYQzwIYAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaoyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Sun","suffix":""},{"id":626410174,"identity":"54db5c2d-d2a4-4d30-97f1-16eafc6f77af","order_by":1,"name":"Denghui Ji","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0498-7551","institution":"University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Denghui","middleName":"","lastName":"Ji","suffix":""},{"id":626410175,"identity":"99656448-f4c8-4863-b466-a63a113f8509","order_by":2,"name":"Christoph Ritter","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christoph","middleName":"","lastName":"Ritter","suffix":""},{"id":626410176,"identity":"a467607c-125f-4973-afb4-60046962103b","order_by":3,"name":"Justus Notholt","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University Bremen","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Justus","middleName":"","lastName":"Notholt","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-17 09:57:43","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9447510/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9447510/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108007785,"identity":"736454b8-6e7d-49b4-8e6b-4aa08aa45269","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-28 13:01:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2014624,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"DustdrivencloudmicrophysicalprocessesweakenorevenreverseArcticwarming.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9447510/v1_covered_51a48869-64ad-463a-87ad-ee2d6f50dd85.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Dust-driven cloud microphysical processes weaken or even reverse Arctic warming","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9447510/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9447510/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The Arctic does not show a uniform warming, some regions even experience a cooling. 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