Does Economic Growth Reduce Crime? Evidence from India Using an ARDL Model

Does Economic Growth Reduce Crime? Evidence from India Using an ARDL Model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Does Economic Growth Reduce Crime? Evidence from India Using an ARDL Model Taru Saigal, Siya Gupta This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8994104/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Crime is one of the major persistent social challenges faced by developing economies coexisting alongside economic growth and social transformation. This study analyses the short-run and long-run factors such as Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Government Expenditure, Inflation, Rule of Law, and Population Growth which affect crime in India using annual time-series data from 1995 to 2022. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling approach which is well-suited for variables with mixed order of integration and examines both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The results reveal that sustained investment acts as a protective barrier and significantly reduces crime in the long-run. In contrast, Government expenditure has mixed short-run effects but a positive long-run impact on crime highlighting the need for effective and efficient composition of public spending. Inflation is one of the major factors causing crime with a lagged effect and improvements in the rule of law can significantly reduce crime occurrence in the nation. Population growth also shows a significant long-run relationship with crime indicating the importance of demographic pressure. Overall, the findings suggest that crime is not only a result of underdevelopment but is also influenced by the quality of growth, government effectiveness and macroeconomic stability. The study also provides policy recommendations for promoting inclusive development and ensuring social stability along with economic growth. Economic Growth Crime Determinants ARDL Model Institutional Quality Macroeconomic Stability India Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 19 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 19 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 05 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 05 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 28 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8994104","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":610105483,"identity":"8bc62d72-f01d-4607-baa3-2e7ce220b5c6","order_by":0,"name":"Taru Saigal","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Christ (Deemed to be University)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Taru","middleName":"","lastName":"Saigal","suffix":""},{"id":610105484,"identity":"58c51ef3-f095-4209-be96-4cf0523c7233","order_by":1,"name":"Siya Gupta","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Christ (Deemed to be University)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Siya","middleName":"","lastName":"Gupta","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-28 09:53:43","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8994104/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8994104/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105727897,"identity":"bbd5adfa-be7c-454b-82ac-964ba40a0fca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-30 11:05:13","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":379170,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DoesEconomicGrowthReduceCrime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8994104/v1_covered_021f84e2-f167-4fa1-8787-257efd6388a8.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Does Economic Growth Reduce Crime? 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