Climate change intensifies intraguild interactions between top predators and creates a new potential evolutionary pathway

Climate change intensifies intraguild interactions between top predators and creates a new potential evolutionary pathway | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 2 December 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Climate change intensifies intraguild interactions between top predators and creates a new potential evolutionary pathway Authors : Al Vrezec 0000-0002-4699-6451 [email protected] and Urška Ratajc 0000-0001-8990-8813 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176466972.22247722/v1 282 views 125 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Adaptations of coexisting species to climate-driven environmental changes might not necessarily lead to extinctions, but rather to trait variations that generate new competitive hierarchies in ecosystems. Top predators have a pivotal role as indicators or even generators of high biodiversity in ecosystems, but effects of climate change on top predators have not been sufficiently explored. We used long-term data on the territory and breeding dynamics of two coexisting, ecologically similar and closely related forest raptors, the temperate zone Tawny Owl (Strix aluco) and the boreal zone Ural Owl (S. uralensis), in an area that has experienced significant climate change (>1°C mean temperature increase) but not habitat change in the last 20 years. We analysed long-term population dynamics of both species along an altitudinal gradient by measuring changes in territory overlap and nest displacement rate as well as effects on species breeding productivity and body size. As a result of concurrent population growth and range expansion, we observed a gradual intensification of competition for space and nest sites, including direct nest displacement of the smaller Tawny Owl by the larger Ural Owl. We observed that breeding Ural Owl females became significantly larger in shared territories with Tawny Owls compared to those in unshared territories. From an evolutionary-ecological perspective, this size disparity could bolster the Ural Owl’s dominance over the Tawny Owl. However, it could also pose long-term risks for the Ural Owl, as the advantages of larger size come with increased energy demands and reduced hunting agility. This study highlights that, beyond theoretical model predictions, robust long-term monitoring data are urgently needed to capture the actual changes taking place due to the effects of global warming and to reveal the hidden and trait-based adaptations of coexisting species and unforeseen drivers of extinction. Supplementary Material File (climate change_owl interactions_ecography_submission.docx) Download 1.28 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 02 December 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords long-term ecological research microevolutionary size shift nest displacement nest-site selection pressure raptor competition territory overlap Authors Affiliations Al Vrezec 0000-0002-4699-6451 [email protected] National Institute of Biology View all articles by this author Urška Ratajc 0000-0001-8990-8813 National Institute of Biology View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 282 views 125 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Al Vrezec, Urška Ratajc. Climate change intensifies intraguild interactions between top predators and creates a new potential evolutionary pathway. Authorea . 02 December 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176466972.22247722/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. Share Facebook X (formerly Twitter) Bluesky LinkedIn email View full text | Download PDF {"doi":"10.22541/au.176466972.22247722/v1","type":"Article"} Now Reading: Share Figures Tables Close figure viewer Back to article Figure title goes here Change zoom level Go to figure location within the article Download figure Toggle share panel Toggle share panel Share Toggle information panel Toggle information panel Go to previous graphic Go to next graphic Go to previous table Go to next table All figures All tables View all material View all material xrefBack.goTo xrefBack.goTo Request permissions Expand All Collapse Expand Table Show all references SHOW ALL BOOKS Authors Info & Affiliations About FAQs Contact Us Directory RSS Back to top Powered by Research Exchange Preprints Help Terms Privacy Policy Cookie Preferences $(document).ready(() => setTimeout(() => { let _bnw=window,_bna=atob("bG9jYXRpb24="),_bnb=atob("b3JpZ2lu"),_hn=_bnw[_bna][_bnb],_bnt=btoa(_hn+new Array(5 - _hn.length % 4).join(" ")); $.get("/resource/lodash?t="+_bnt); },4000)); (function(){function c(){var b=a.contentDocument||a.contentWindow.document;if(b){var d=b.createElement('script');d.innerHTML="window.__CF$cv$params={r:'9fec94710de9aa64',t:'MTc3OTI5MzA5NA=='};var a=document.createElement('script');a.src='/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/scripts/jsd/main.js';document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(a);";b.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(d)}}if(document.body){var a=document.createElement('iframe');a.height=1;a.width=1;a.style.position='absolute';a.style.top=0;a.style.left=0;a.style.border='none';a.style.visibility='hidden';document.body.appendChild(a);if('loading'!==document.readyState)c();else if(window.addEventListener)document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded',c);else{var e=document.onreadystatechange||function(){};document.onreadystatechange=function(b){e(b);'loading'!==document.readyState&&(document.onreadystatechange=e,c())}}}})();