Simulation and prediction of the development of coupled water resource-energy-food-ecology coordination degree in Dalad Banner

Simulation and prediction of the development of coupled water resource-energy-food-ecology coordination degree in Dalad Banner | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Simulation and prediction of the development of coupled water resource-energy-food-ecology coordination degree in Dalad Banner Weijie Zhang, Qingqing Qi, Jian Liu, Hanze Tan, Kai Feng, Zezhong Zhang, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6929804/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The synergistic regulation of Water-Energy-Food-Ecology(WEFE) system is a key path to realize sustainable development in ecologically fragile areas.This paper selected Dalad Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,as the study area, and focused on its composite challenges of water resource shortage, energy transition pressure, salinization of arable land and ecological degradation, constructed a WEFE system evaluation index system, determines the weights of the indexes by using the entropy weight method, and combined the system dynamics model with the coupling degree of coordination model, to simulate the increase income and reduce expenditure, economic development, environmental protection, and coordinated development of the four scenarios of the system evolution trend from 2023 to 2035. The results showed that the coordinated development scenario had the highest coupling degree of coordination, which reaches 0.823 in 2035, and achieves synergies in multiple subsystems by balancing the indicators of water resources, energy, food, and ecology, such as increasing the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water to 0.672, decreasing the energy consumption of 10000 yuan of industrial added value to 3.449 tons of standard coal per 10000 yuan, and increasing the volume of sand exchange to 8.227 million m 3 ; while the economic development scenario is characterized by overdependence on traditional energy sources, which leads toa decrease in energy consumption. The economic development scenario increases ecological pressure due to over-reliance on traditional energy sources, leading to an increase in industrial wastewater discharge to 48.905 million m 3 , the environmental protection scenario has significant ecological benefits but inhibits the potential for resource development, and the increase income and reduce expenditure scenario faces the problem of slow economic development. This study provided a theoretical basis and a practical paradigm for integrating resource development and ecological protection in arid and semi-arid resource-based regions. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society WEFE nexus coupling coordination degree scenario simulation Dalad Banner Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6929804","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":478305881,"identity":"bbc4bd34-4d62-4daa-b51d-16bd39e3ee02","order_by":0,"name":"Weijie Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-hydrology National Observation and Research Station","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Weijie","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":478305882,"identity":"bc6c0000-b85d-4257-9220-0c6a2b6ba629","order_by":1,"name":"Qingqing Qi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"North China University of 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Banner","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6929804/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6929804/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe synergistic regulation of Water-Energy-Food-Ecology(WEFE) system is a key path to realize sustainable development in ecologically fragile areas.This paper selected Dalad Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,as the study area, and focused on its composite challenges of water resource shortage, energy transition pressure, salinization of arable land and ecological degradation, constructed a WEFE system evaluation index system, determines the weights of the indexes by using the entropy weight method, and combined the system dynamics model with the coupling degree of coordination model, to simulate the increase income and reduce expenditure, economic development, environmental protection, and coordinated development of the four scenarios of the system evolution trend from 2023 to 2035. The results showed that the coordinated development scenario had the highest coupling degree of coordination, which reaches 0.823 in 2035, and achieves synergies in multiple subsystems by balancing the indicators of water resources, energy, food, and ecology, such as increasing the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water to 0.672, decreasing the energy consumption of 10000 yuan of industrial added value to 3.449 tons of standard coal per 10000 yuan, and increasing the volume of sand exchange to 8.227\u0026nbsp;million m\u003csup\u003e\u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/sup\u003e; while the economic development scenario is characterized by overdependence on traditional energy sources, which leads toa decrease in energy consumption. The economic development scenario increases ecological pressure due to over-reliance on traditional energy sources, leading to an increase in industrial wastewater discharge to 48.905\u0026nbsp;million m\u003csup\u003e\u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/sup\u003e, the environmental protection scenario has significant ecological benefits but inhibits the potential for resource development, and the increase income and reduce expenditure scenario faces the problem of slow economic development. This study provided a theoretical basis and a practical paradigm for integrating resource development and ecological protection in arid and semi-arid resource-based regions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Simulation and prediction of the development of coupled water resource-energy-food-ecology coordination degree in Dalad Banner","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-01 06:51:40","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6929804/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"697b5da5-b4d4-4545-99ba-e2f9ae603664","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 1st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":50778698,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences"},{"id":50778699,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-15T05:08:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-01 06:51:40","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6929804","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6929804","identity":"rs-6929804","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}