Political Nostalgia Heightens Anxiety AboutDemocracy’s Future

Political Nostalgia Heightens Anxiety AboutDemocracy’s Future | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Political Nostalgia Heightens Anxiety AboutDemocracy’s Future Spencer Goidel, Kirby Goidel This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9140738/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract President Donald J. Trump’s calls to Make America Great Again have sparked considerableresearch into the political consequences of nostalgia, e.g., its influence on votingbehavior, support for democracy, racial resentment, and modern sexism. Yet, if subsetsof voters are oriented toward imagining a simpler, more prosperous past, comparativelylittle attention has been paid to how citizens envision the political futureand whether nostalgia shapes that orientation. In this paper, we use a module fromthe Cooperative Election Study (CES) to explore how individuals were thinking aboutthe future during the contentious 2024 presidential campaign and how nostalgia forthe past conditions these beliefs. We find that i) individuals express anxiety ratherthan optimism about the future, ii) political nostalgia is associated with less optimismand greater anger about the future, and iii) nostalgia and future-oriented anxiety arejointly associated with expectations that adverse democratic outcomes (backsliding,collapse, and civil war) are increasingly likely. Together, nostalgia and future-orientedanxiety prove to be a combustible mix, undermining confidence in democracy. Nostalgia Optimism Pessimism Public Opinion Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9140738","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":625105140,"identity":"bae6210a-3084-4d65-ab9f-635b68009ab1","order_by":0,"name":"Spencer Goidel","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Auburn University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Spencer","middleName":"","lastName":"Goidel","suffix":""},{"id":625105141,"identity":"847f3973-b7ba-405d-9560-2b5cb4078be3","order_by":1,"name":"Kirby Goidel","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAwElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCSA+wMNgIQflMxOtRcKYhyQtDEAtiT1Ea5HsX3zwwJsKifT97KfTJBgqrBMbCGmRlniWcHDOGYncHp7cbRIMZ9IJa5GTOGNwmLcNqIUBqIWx7TCxWv5JpPPwvwVq+UeEFmn+HqCWBokEHgmQLQ1EaJGcwQb0yzEJw54bbzdbJBxLNyaoReL84cMf3tTYyLP352688aHGWpagFgaJBCROAg5FqID/AFHKRsEoGAWjYCQDAAI3Pcf46btVAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Texas A\u0026M University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kirby","middleName":"","lastName":"Goidel","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-16 17:38:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9140738/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9140738/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107488369,"identity":"0fa6cb94-590d-4b03-a52b-620d4f05ab54","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-22 02:44:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":226898,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TheFutureandPoliticalNostalgia.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9140738/v1_covered_4b5f0bb4-c3b6-40cd-8788-a392127b0ae4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Political Nostalgia Heightens Anxiety AboutDemocracy’s Future","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Nostalgia, Optimism, Pessimism, Public Opinion","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9140738/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9140738/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"President Donald J. Trump’s calls to Make America Great Again have sparked considerableresearch into the political consequences of nostalgia, e.g., its influence on votingbehavior, support for democracy, racial resentment, and modern sexism. Yet, if subsetsof voters are oriented toward imagining a simpler, more prosperous past, comparativelylittle attention has been paid to how citizens envision the political futureand whether nostalgia shapes that orientation. In this paper, we use a module fromthe Cooperative Election Study (CES) to explore how individuals were thinking aboutthe future during the contentious 2024 presidential campaign and how nostalgia forthe past conditions these beliefs. We find that i) individuals express anxiety ratherthan optimism about the future, ii) political nostalgia is associated with less optimismand greater anger about the future, and iii) nostalgia and future-oriented anxiety arejointly associated with expectations that adverse democratic outcomes (backsliding,collapse, and civil war) are increasingly likely. Together, nostalgia and future-orientedanxiety prove to be a combustible mix, undermining confidence in democracy.","manuscriptTitle":"Political Nostalgia Heightens Anxiety AboutDemocracy’s Future","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-20 19:10:49","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9140738/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"613332b5-3989-44ff-a35d-374e594cf488","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 20th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-07T09:35:18+00:00","index":19,"fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-04T13:54:11+00:00","index":18,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-20T19:10:49+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-20 19:10:49","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9140738","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9140738","identity":"rs-9140738","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}