Jaguar density at the northeastern limit of its distribution in Mexico

Jaguar density at the northeastern limit of its distribution in Mexico | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Ecology and Evolution This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 6 October 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Jaguar density at the northeastern limit of its distribution in Mexico Authors : Zavdiel Manuel-de la Rosa , Leroy Soria-Díaz , Carlos Barriga-Vallejo , Gabriela Mendoza-Gutiérrez , Nayeli Martínez-González , Claudia Astudillo-Sánchez , and Jose Jimenez 0000-0003-0607-6973 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175973808.84830248/v1 280 views 165 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Reliable estimates of population density are essential for the conservation of apex predators such as the jaguar (Panthera onca), particularly in peripheral regions of their distribution where existing data are insufficient to guide effective management. In Mexico, northeastern landscapes remain underrepresented in jaguar research, limiting the development of context-specific conservation strategies. To address this gap, we conducted a camera trap survey in the El Cielo–Sierra de Tamalave biological corridor, a transitional zone located at the northeasternmost limit of the species’ range. Over a 91-day sampling period, we deployed 104 cameras across 52 paired stations and applied a random thinning spatial capture–recapture model (rt-SCR), which integrates both identified and unidentified photographic detections. This represents the first application of rt-SCR to jaguar data in Mexico. The model yielded a density estimate of 1.29 (0.93–1.70) individuals per 100 km², with adequate goodness-of-fit across multiple detection metrics. Despite low detection rates, the rt-SCR framework allowed for robust inference by maximizing data use and reducing bias associated with exclusion of unidentified detections. Our findings provide a baseline for future monitoring in northeastern Mexico and demonstrate the utility of rt-SCR models in data-limited contexts. These results support the implementation of localized conservation actions and long-term monitoring programs in peripheral jaguar habitats, where population viability may depend on maintaining ecological continuity and minimizing anthropogenic pressures. Supplementary Material File (appendix.docx) Download 893.32 KB File (main-text.docx) Download 5.94 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 06 October 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Collection Ecology and Evolution Keywords population ecology statistical terrestrial vertebrate Authors Affiliations Zavdiel Manuel-de la Rosa Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas View all articles by this author Leroy Soria-Díaz Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas View all articles by this author Carlos Barriga-Vallejo Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas View all articles by this author Gabriela Mendoza-Gutiérrez Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas View all articles by this author Nayeli Martínez-González Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas View all articles by this author Claudia Astudillo-Sánchez Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas View all articles by this author Jose Jimenez 0000-0003-0607-6973 [email protected] Instituto de Investigacion en Recursos Cinegeticos View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 280 views 165 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Zavdiel Manuel-de la Rosa, Leroy Soria-Díaz, Carlos Barriga-Vallejo, et al. Jaguar density at the northeastern limit of its distribution in Mexico. Authorea . 06 October 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175973808.84830248/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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