Extending EXIOBASE through explicit solar PV supply-chain modelling: implications for the EU Net Zero Industry Act

Extending EXIOBASE through explicit solar PV supply-chain modelling: implications for the EU Net Zero Industry Act | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Extending EXIOBASE through explicit solar PV supply-chain modelling: implications for the EU Net Zero Industry Act Lorenzo Rinaldi, Raffaele Merletti, Camilla Citterio, Nicolò Golinucci, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9121075/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The photovoltaic (PV) supply chain is complex and characterised by strong geographic concentration. Assessing the environmental and socio-economic impacts of policies targeting its development requires modelling frameworks able to explicitly represent supply chain structures. While conventional process-based life-cycle assessment and top-down input-output models address this aspect only partially, our study develops a hybrid framework that integrates a process-based PV supply chain model into a multi-regional input-output table relying on the EXIOBASE database. The model is first verified against reference literature ranges of solar electricity carbon footprints and producer prices, showing hybrid representation yields robust results, limiting typical distortions of purely top-down models. The framework is applied to a European Net-Zero Industry Act scenario, where 40% of modules demand is supplied domestically. Results show that reshoring mainly affects downstream stages, while upstream production remains largely external, leading to moderate changes in consumption-based emissions and limited gains in EU value-added and employment. Solar PV Net Zero Industry Act Supply chain Industrial ecology Hybrid life-cycle-assessment EXIOBASE Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterial.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 30 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 21 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 20 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 14 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 16 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 16 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 14 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9121075","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":627200293,"identity":"d3bc1114-fd85-4a64-9538-b448e2c5feb7","order_by":0,"name":"Lorenzo Rinaldi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPjiLGYgfsEnIAVkNBxgMGHhwaWFD0ZLAJmHMwMAI0YJLDxsKL4GNIbEBqAXMwamFvffh44I/Ngzm7bwHPySUWaRvZ29sPHSjgEHGHpcWnuPGxjN40hhkDvMlSySck8jd2XOw4XAOPodJpLFJ80gcZpBg5jGQSGyTyN1wI5GgFvbfPAZgLcY/gFrSDYjQwsbMkwDWYgayJYGwFp5jzNI8B9J4QFosgH4xhPpFgofnAHYt/OxtjJ95/tjISfCfMb7xoaxO3py9+fDnnD829uwNOKyBAoQrDCCUBH71KMCABLWjYBSMglEwMgAADSlIiGaEdUYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Politecnico di Milano","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lorenzo","middleName":"","lastName":"Rinaldi","suffix":""},{"id":627200294,"identity":"096d6748-07e6-4299-b2d6-27afdc655bf0","order_by":1,"name":"Raffaele Merletti","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Politecnico di Milano","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Raffaele","middleName":"","lastName":"Merletti","suffix":""},{"id":627200295,"identity":"8674985e-acaf-498e-ab91-954e23a26e73","order_by":2,"name":"Camilla Citterio","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Politecnico di Milano","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Camilla","middleName":"","lastName":"Citterio","suffix":""},{"id":627200296,"identity":"8dd488ee-efad-4df0-86c4-9bf937162e01","order_by":3,"name":"Nicolò Golinucci","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"eNextGen s.r.l","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nicolò","middleName":"","lastName":"Golinucci","suffix":""},{"id":627200297,"identity":"0abbf02d-738f-4d8c-bff0-878e8b11fda4","order_by":4,"name":"Matteo Vincenzo Rocco","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Politecnico di Milano","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matteo","middleName":"Vincenzo","lastName":"Rocco","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-14 08:54:56","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9121075/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9121075/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107706854,"identity":"588f4ea9-d3ed-479e-8f2c-ad7fc77325fb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-24 09:18:54","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":665233,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9121075/v1_covered_2717bbfc-a97e-4f0c-84a2-746c1bb1ee4b.pdf"},{"id":107573656,"identity":"4e6065b6-e045-4d97-8391-48d58d6af18f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-22 19:20:48","extension":"xlsx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":234756,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterial.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9121075/v1/04392c108a85a3e8c129c8da.xlsx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Extending EXIOBASE through explicit solar PV supply-chain modelling: implications for the EU Net Zero Industry Act","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-industrial-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"44498","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44498/3","title":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Solar PV, Net Zero Industry Act, Supply chain, Industrial ecology, Hybrid life-cycle-assessment, EXIOBASE","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9121075/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9121075/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe photovoltaic (PV) supply chain is complex and characterised by strong geographic concentration. Assessing the environmental and socio-economic impacts of policies targeting its development requires modelling frameworks able to explicitly represent supply chain structures. While conventional process-based life-cycle assessment and top-down input-output models address this aspect only partially, our study develops a hybrid framework that integrates a process-based PV supply chain model into a multi-regional input-output table relying on the EXIOBASE database. The model is first verified against reference literature ranges of solar electricity carbon footprints and producer prices, showing hybrid representation yields robust results, limiting typical distortions of purely top-down models. The framework is applied to a European Net-Zero Industry Act scenario, where 40% of modules demand is supplied domestically. Results show that reshoring mainly affects downstream stages, while upstream production remains largely external, leading to moderate changes in consumption-based emissions and limited gains in EU value-added and employment.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Extending EXIOBASE through explicit solar PV supply-chain modelling: implications for the EU Net Zero Industry Act","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-22 19:20:44","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9121075/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-04-30T09:27:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-21T16:17:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-20T08:39:55+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"84574892233614405032793092293644528746","date":"2026-04-17T04:15:35+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"260216395176299829542690713062368342313","date":"2026-04-16T10:57:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-15T02:15:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-03-16T07:30:17+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-03-16T07:30:03+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","date":"2026-03-14T08:48:22+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-industrial-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"44498","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44498/3","title":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d7400cc9-1089-4ee9-a8f8-e1d1152b79b1","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 22nd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-04-30T09:27:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-30T09:40:35+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-22 19:20:44","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9121075","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9121075","identity":"rs-9121075","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}