Asymmetric and time-frequency effects of insecurity and macroeconomic dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria

Asymmetric and time-frequency effects of insecurity and macroeconomic dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Asymmetric and time-frequency effects of insecurity and macroeconomic dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria Olujide Adelana Olakanmi, Joel Tobiloba Adeyemo, Opeyemi Eunice Olagunju, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8864569/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Nigeria’s economic growth remains constrained by the nonlinear and evolving interplay between insecurity and macroeconomic instability. Using annual data from 1980–2020, this study employs a NARDL framework and wavelet coherence analysis to uncover asymmetric and time-frequency effects. Findings reveal a stable long-run relationship in which insecurity and inflation significantly hinder growth, while reductions in insecurity yield weaker gains. Exchange rate volatility further dampens performance, and capital formation offers only limited support. Wavelet results show persistent bidirectional causality between growth, insecurity, and inflation. The study concludes that sustainable growth in Nigeria depends on an integrated approach combining preventive security measures, macroeconomic stabilisation, capital formation, and governance reforms—recognising that security and economic policy are mutually reinforcing foundations of inclusive development. JEL codes: C22, D74, O47, O55 Economic growth Insecurity Macroeconomics Inflation NARDL Wavelet coherence Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 16 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 12 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 09 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 08 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 27 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 25 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 14 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 12 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8864569","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":614217620,"identity":"2bbf1710-afc3-4a33-aada-1e2c94007938","order_by":0,"name":"Olujide Adelana 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