Integrating AHP and Land Change Modeling to Assess Urban Expansion-Induced Flood Susceptibility in Islamabad, Pakistan

Integrating AHP and Land Change Modeling to Assess Urban Expansion-Induced Flood Susceptibility in Islamabad, Pakistan | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Integrating AHP and Land Change Modeling to Assess Urban Expansion-Induced Flood Susceptibility in Islamabad, Pakistan NISAR ALI HUSSAIN, Muhammad Imran Khan, Junaid Memon This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787631/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 17 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Rapid and unplanned urban expansion has intensified flood hazards in many developing regions, yet few studies quantitatively disentangle the relative effects of land-use change and climate variability on flood susceptibility. This study examines the interplay between urban sprawl, land cover transformation, and hydrological risk in Islamabad, Pakistan, using an integrated Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Land Change Modeler (LCM) framework. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1990–2024) was used to map land-use transitions, while the AHP quantified flood susceptibility weights for topographic, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors. The LCM simulated projected 2030 land-use scenarios, which were integrated into the flood susceptibility model to evaluate baseline, climate change, and urban sprawl scenarios. Results show that built-up area expansion at a rate of 7% per year drives a 41% increase in high-risk flood zones by 2030, exceeding the 35% increase attributed to climate-induced precipitation extremes. The coupled RS-GIS-AHP-LCM approach enhances the dynamic predictive capacity of flood risk modeling and supports anticipatory, spatially informed decision-making. This study is among the first to dynamically integrate AHP and LCM for assessing the coupled impacts of land-use change and climate variability on flood susceptibility in a South Asian megacity. Urban sprawl Flood susceptibility Land Change Modeler (LCM) Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Remote Sensing (RS) Geographic Information System (GIS) Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 06 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 21 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 14 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 06 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 01 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 28 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Feb, 2026 Editor invited by journal 16 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 09 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 09 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 04 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8787631","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":594470479,"identity":"3ec9a02f-3da3-4a92-a0c7-f9ffec9bd0b2","order_by":0,"name":"NISAR ALI HUSSAIN","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5obDEJqB8QGQ4uEjrIURroXZAKSFjRgtzFAWmwSYJKTBnP1g4+HCtjp7/nbeY5Vfc+xk2BiYHz66gUeLZU9iw+GZbYcTZxzmS7stuy0Z6DA2Y+McPFoMDgC18LYdSGA4zGN2W3IbM1ALD5s0Xi3nH4K01NnLA7UUS26rJ0LLDbAtzIwbgFoYP247TIwWoC085w4nbjzMYyzNuO04DxszIb+cTz78maeszl7u/BnDjz+3Vdvzszc/fIxPCwpg5gGTxCoHAcYfpKgeBaNgFIyCEQMAwTVGrqlYrtYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Survey of Pakistan","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"NISAR","middleName":"ALI","lastName":"HUSSAIN","suffix":""},{"id":594470480,"identity":"44b21ff0-39f8-4f1c-ba30-341574b1e1e6","order_by":1,"name":"Muhammad Imran Khan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tongji University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muhammad","middleName":"Imran","lastName":"Khan","suffix":""},{"id":594470481,"identity":"78412d01-dd60-42d5-8559-35a53404bae1","order_by":2,"name":"Junaid Memon","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Survey of Pakistan","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Junaid","middleName":"","lastName":"Memon","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-04 14:23:39","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787631/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787631/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103303935,"identity":"dd2a0bf6-64a4-4855-b690-dbd4de9eee0b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-24 08:42:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1360609,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"FinalManuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8787631/v1_covered_8c6e11b4-e805-427d-bb80-1179693ca9de.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Integrating AHP and Land Change Modeling to Assess Urban Expansion-Induced Flood Susceptibility in Islamabad, Pakistan","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Hazards](https://link.springer.com/journal/44475)","snPcode":"44475","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44475/3","title":"Discover Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Urban sprawl, Flood susceptibility, Land Change Modeler (LCM), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS)","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787631/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787631/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRapid and unplanned urban expansion has intensified flood hazards in many developing regions, yet few studies quantitatively disentangle the relative effects of land-use change and climate variability on flood susceptibility. This study examines the interplay between urban sprawl, land cover transformation, and hydrological risk in Islamabad, Pakistan, using an integrated Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Land Change Modeler (LCM) framework. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1990\u0026ndash;2024) was used to map land-use transitions, while the AHP quantified flood susceptibility weights for topographic, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors. The LCM simulated projected 2030 land-use scenarios, which were integrated into the flood susceptibility model to evaluate baseline, climate change, and urban sprawl scenarios. Results show that built-up area expansion at a rate of 7% per year drives a 41% increase in high-risk flood zones by 2030, exceeding the 35% increase attributed to climate-induced precipitation extremes. The coupled RS-GIS-AHP-LCM approach enhances the dynamic predictive capacity of flood risk modeling and supports anticipatory, spatially informed decision-making.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study is among the first to dynamically integrate AHP and LCM for assessing the coupled impacts of land-use change and climate variability on flood susceptibility in a South Asian megacity.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Integrating AHP and Land Change Modeling to Assess Urban Expansion-Induced Flood Susceptibility in Islamabad, Pakistan","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-24 08:41:11","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787631/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-05-06T09:58:27+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-21T13:58:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-14T09:27:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-06T06:57:42+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"126301438103514198091802393374924515336","date":"2026-04-03T06:47:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-01T11:24:12+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"219262465940532558050497978504210038399","date":"2026-04-01T06:52:26+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"117001513284644735471205125946914414067","date":"2026-04-01T06:34:28+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"265634763254609767108861325193234915335","date":"2026-03-10T11:48:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-28T09:47:37+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"124842010319686742748146564138034589931","date":"2026-02-20T13:11:40+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"215782461386643766988920458772234007654","date":"2026-02-20T11:52:37+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-20T11:38:22+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-16T06:08:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-02-09T10:11:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-02-09T10:03:36+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Hazards","date":"2026-02-04T14:04:26+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Hazards](https://link.springer.com/journal/44475)","snPcode":"44475","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44475/3","title":"Discover Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"ce44045a-0866-481b-b9bb-49ea5c338d94","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 24th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-05-06T09:58:27+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-06T10:10:10+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-24 08:41:11","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8787631","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8787631","identity":"rs-8787631","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}