A Supply and Demand Approach to Information Processing in Decision-Making

Abstract: Value-based decisions are driven by subjective estimates of value for each available option, but recent work has shown that subjective measures of certainty about those value estimates also influence choice behavior. Cognitive and computational theories have proposed that decision-makers process information about choice options in order to reduce their uncertainty about their value estimates before choosing an option. One theory specifically proposes that value estimates are refined during deliberation, which results in more certain – and sometimes revised – value estimates after the choice relative to before. Here we examine the idea that choice options hold different levels of familiarity for decision-makers, and that familiarity can influence the degree to which certainty gain or value revision occurs. Our results show that both certainty gain and value revision are decreasing functions of initial certainty – which we classify as a demand effect – and increasing functions of familiarity – which we classify as a supply effect. Together, these results provide support for our supply and demand approach to the processing of information during decision-making.