Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates.

Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates. | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates. Saurabh Annadate, Enrico Mancinelli, Barbara Gonella, Federica Moricci, and 9 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5032486/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Environmental Sciences Europe → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract HFC-134a is the most prevalent hydrofluorocarbon used as a replacement for ozone-depleting CFCs and HCFCs. Due to its high global warming potential, it is regulated under various European and global frameworks, underscoring the importance of tracking its emissions. Emissions derived by the commonly used, bottom-up, methodology are affected by a certain degree of uncertainty. The bottom-up estimates can be aided with an independent top-down estimate based on atmospheric observations combined with an atmospheric transport model. This study presents HFC-134a emissions for Europe, with a specific focus on Italy, from 2008 to 2023. The emissions were estimated using a Bayesian inversion methodology, based on atmospheric observations collected at four European stations. Our analysis reveals a slightly increasing trend in HFC-134a emissions for Italy from 2008 to 2015 of 0.17 Gg/yr, followed by a steady decrease thereafter, highlighting the effect of European regulation on fluorinated gases that came into force in 2014. We observed a reduction in HFC-134a emissions in the Po Basin inferred from the inversion method for 2020, likely due to mobility restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The observed mild seasonality in emissions may be partly attributed to higher air-conditioning activity during summer. A comparison with the Italian national emission inventories showed that the iterative bottom-up estimates improved, with 2024 national emissions aligning with our inversion results. This study emphasises the need for collaboration between the two independent approaches to enhance the accuracy of emission estimates. Such cooperation is crucial to narrowing the gap in quantifying emissions of potent greenhouse gases and effectively assessing the progress of international policies and regulations. Greenhouse gas emissions Inverse modelling Bottom-up inventories EU F-gas regulation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files supplementaryinfo.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Environmental Sciences Europe → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 30 Oct, 2024 Reviews received at journal 25 Oct, 2024 Reviews received at journal 10 Oct, 2024 Reviews received at journal 05 Oct, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Sep, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Sep, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Sep, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 13 Sep, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 05 Sep, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 05 Sep, 2024 First submitted to journal 04 Sep, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5032486","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":362616437,"identity":"4d10feda-de59-4222-a164-99996e151bb0","order_by":0,"name":"Saurabh Annadate","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Urbino “Carlo Bo”, Urbino","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Saurabh","middleName":"","lastName":"Annadate","suffix":""},{"id":362616438,"identity":"15f9fce5-cbc5-48ba-a6b4-aab273730094","order_by":1,"name":"Enrico 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