Effects of Climate Change on Food security and Sustainable Development in Saudi Arabia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Effects of Climate Change on Food security and Sustainable Development in Saudi Arabia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Effects of Climate Change on Food security and Sustainable Development in Saudi Arabia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach NABIL EL BAOUCHARI, Amany Elmaghzangy, Mounira Raddaoui, Ayoub Kharbouche This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6724363/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the effects of climate change on food security and sustainable development in Saudi Arabia from 1981 to 2022, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Unlike prior research, this study quantifies climate change through the ecological footprint (EFP), which captures humanity’s demand on ecosystems, and evaluates food security (FS) using food production as a proxy. The analysis incorporates additional variables, including rainfall (RF), population (POP), agricultural sector growth (AGR), and GDP per capita (GDPC), to explore dynamic interrelationships. Results reveal a significant adverse impact of climate change on food security in both short- and long-term scenarios. Key findings demonstrate that a 1% increase in ecological footprint reduces food security, with long-run coefficients underscoring persistent vulnerabilities. Policy implications emphasize the urgency of integrating climate resilience into Saudi Arabia’s agricultural and economic strategies, promoting sustainable resource management to mitigate ecological pressures and enhance food security. This study provides critical insights for policymakers aiming to align Saudi Vision 2030 with climate adaptation and sustainable development goals. JEL classification : Q54, Q56, Q18, O13, Q15 Climate Analysis and Modeling Environmental Economics Econometrics climate change ecological footprint food security Saudi Arabia Sustainable Development Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6724363","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":461624038,"identity":"832f073c-26f9-4f4c-ba4c-3ac626304051","order_by":0,"name":"NABIL EL BAOUCHARI","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACdh4wlcDAwNgARBIy/GBuAR4tzGhaeCQbQFwDorQwgHXxGBwAsfBo4WfmPfjhY5tdHv/sw20Pfu6w4DE+vzrxwwMDBnl+sQNYtUg28yVLzmxLLpY4l9hu2HtGgsfsxtvNEkCHGc6cnYBVi8FhHgNp3rYDiQ1nGNskeNtAWs5uAGlJMLiNXYv9YR7j3yAt84FaJP8CtRjPOLv5Bz4tBsw8ZmBbNgC1SINsMeDv3YbXFonDfGmWM84lJ24EaZEF+kXiBu82iwQDCZx+4W/vPXzjQ5ld4rwz7M8k3+6ok+PvP7v55o8KG3l+aexasFkMVilBrHKwxQdIUT0KRsEoGAUjAAAAaONdI1Nmk2AAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6826-9899","institution":"Mohammed V University in Rabat (Morocco)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"NABIL","middleName":"EL","lastName":"BAOUCHARI","suffix":""},{"id":461624039,"identity":"aa350788-01d3-4115-92b3-76e733165d9a","order_by":1,"name":"Amany Elmaghzangy","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4492-1800","institution":"Economics Instructor, Higher Obour institute for management \u0026 informatics. 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