Human movement and transmission dynamics early in Ebola outbreaks

Alexandria Gonzalez, Behnam Nikparvar, M. Jeremiah Matson, Stephanie N. Seifert, Heather D. Ross, Vincent Munster, Nita Bharti
2023 · doi:10.1101/2023.12.18.23300175
preprint OA: closed
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Abstract

Human movement drives the transmission and spread of communicable pathogens. It is especially influential for emerging pathogens when population immunity is low and spillover events are rare. We digitized serial printed maps to measure transportation networks (roads and rivers) in Central and West Africa as proxies for population mobility to assess relationships between movement and Ebola transmission. We find that the lengths of roads and rivers in close proximity to spillover sites at or near the time of spillover events are significantly correlated with the number of EVD cases, particularly in the first 100 days of each outbreak. Early management and containment efforts along transportation networks may be beneficial in mitigation during the early days of transmission and spatial spread for Ebola outbreaks. Significance Statement This study links human movement and pathogen transmission across fifty years. While this relationship is well understood for modern outbreaks, it has not been characterized at local scales for historical outbreaks. We compared the number of cases and the spatial spread of each documented outbreak of Ebola ( Orthoebolavirus zairense , EBOV) to the road and river networks surrounding each spillover location at the time of each spillover event. We measured the road and river networks by digitizing a series of paper maps that were printed during or near the year of each spillover. We show that the connectivity of spillover locations is consistently correlated to the severity of the outbreak over time and across all locations of EBOV spillover events.

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