Underestimated risks of future storm surge extremes: A global study

Underestimated risks of future storm surge extremes: A global study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Underestimated risks of future storm surge extremes: A global study Peter Thejll, Martin Drews, Torben Schmith, Jacob Nielsen, Mads Ribergaard, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8142732/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Around the world, extreme sea levels are increasingly affecting low-lying and unprotected coasts. The rise in local mean sea level is widely assumed to be the dominant driver of changes in the frequency of coastal extremes, and most projections of future flood risk rely on the premise that extremes increase uniformly with mean sea level. Here, we show that this assumption does not always hold. Using non-stationary extreme-value models applied to long, high-quality tide-gauge records from the global GESLA-3 database, we find that roughly 15% of sites exhibit statistically significant departures from this behaviour, with extreme sea levels rising faster or slower than local mean sea level. Regions such as the North Sea show surge amplification beyond what sea-level rise alone can explain, consistent with depth-sensitive wave dynamics in shallow basins. These findings highlight the need to incorporate non-stationary effects in coastal hazard assessments to support robust adaptation planning. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files THEJLLSUPPLEMENTARY.pdf Supplementary Information for: Underestimated risks of future storm surge extremes: A global study Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8142732","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":548245451,"identity":"19b05b5f-23c7-4cba-9999-fc962df5bd05","order_by":0,"name":"Peter Thejll","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAiklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHsYHPAwSDAxniNbBxsNsQLIWNgkeEINoLebyvccq3uZYMPCdOUCkFss2vrSbc7dJMEiebSBSi8ExHrPbvEAtBueJdRhISzHpWpjBWoh2mGVbjrEk0C88kkR735z5jOGHt9vq5PjOJBDrMCjNQ6R6JC2jYBSMglEwCnADAJVhI+hTKHQgAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5074-699X","institution":"Danish Meteorological Institute","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peter","middleName":"","lastName":"Thejll","suffix":""},{"id":548245452,"identity":"d6cf9b30-2d79-422e-ad93-c072b40d2ff0","order_by":1,"name":"Martin Drews","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Technical University of Denmark","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Martin","middleName":"","lastName":"Drews","suffix":""},{"id":548245453,"identity":"b8e063e2-27f1-4f6c-ba39-a6f343df9792","order_by":2,"name":"Torben Schmith","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Danish Meteorological Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Torben","middleName":"","lastName":"Schmith","suffix":""},{"id":548245454,"identity":"473b2e4f-ec85-4e36-8566-40afd77af3cb","order_by":3,"name":"Jacob Nielsen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Danish Meteorological Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jacob","middleName":"","lastName":"Nielsen","suffix":""},{"id":548245455,"identity":"76263114-313c-400e-b475-cd4e15b7b8c2","order_by":4,"name":"Mads Ribergaard","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-9514-6833","institution":"Danish Meteorological Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mads","middleName":"","lastName":"Ribergaard","suffix":""},{"id":548245456,"identity":"0f56922c-cd59-4150-8ba3-b540a4bd6985","order_by":5,"name":"Peter Guttorp","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Washington.","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peter","middleName":"","lastName":"Guttorp","suffix":""},{"id":548245457,"identity":"9c9dc794-333f-4fc9-acc0-91672ac9a02e","order_by":6,"name":"Thordis Thorarinsdottir","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Oslo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thordis","middleName":"","lastName":"Thorarinsdottir","suffix":""},{"id":548245458,"identity":"a9a1ab98-642c-42d2-b0f0-4819e436dc6f","order_by":7,"name":"Morten Larsen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Danish Meteorological Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Morten","middleName":"","lastName":"Larsen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-18 08:12:00","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8142732/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8142732/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97138807,"identity":"38d4f2dd-7736-44e2-be74-66316fd1e753","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-01 09:59:20","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3655165,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"THEJLLMANUSCRIPT.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8142732/v1_covered_d0d58eb9-c996-48b7-bd29-fc0c22248e44.pdf"},{"id":96995532,"identity":"44e689f3-9113-4a59-9771-8ca057880fab","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-28 12:09:33","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":9999827,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information for: Underestimated risks of future storm surge extremes: A global study","description":"","filename":"THEJLLSUPPLEMENTARY.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8142732/v1/5bbde176a606a3aab63cac09.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Underestimated risks of future storm surge extremes: A global study","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8142732/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8142732/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Around the world, extreme sea levels are increasingly affecting low-lying and unprotected coasts. The rise in local mean sea level is widely assumed to be the dominant driver of changes in the frequency of coastal extremes, and most projections of future flood risk rely on the premise that extremes increase uniformly with mean sea level. Here, we show that this assumption does not always hold. Using non-stationary extreme-value models applied to long, high-quality tide-gauge records from the global GESLA-3 database, we find that roughly 15\\% of sites exhibit statistically significant departures from this behaviour, with extreme sea levels rising faster or slower than local mean sea level. Regions such as the North Sea show surge amplification beyond what sea-level rise alone can explain, consistent with depth-sensitive wave dynamics in shallow basins. These findings highlight the need to incorporate non-stationary effects in coastal hazard assessments to support robust adaptation planning.","manuscriptTitle":"Underestimated risks of future storm surge extremes: A global study","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-28 12:09:28","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8142732/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"f006eb1b-7d54-459e-8920-41fb3b283dc0","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 28th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":58337014,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"},{"id":58337015,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-28T12:09:28+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-28 12:09:28","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8142732","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8142732","identity":"rs-8142732","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}