Integrated Assessment of Food-System and Land-Based Environmental Impacts Under Blue Growth Scenarios

Integrated Assessment of Food-System and Land-Based Environmental Impacts Under Blue Growth Scenarios | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Integrated Assessment of Food-System and Land-Based Environmental Impacts Under Blue Growth Scenarios Scott Spillias, Julia Blanchard, Maria Castro-Cadenas, Richard Cottrell, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9131294/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The integration of aquatic or ‘blue’ foods into global food system assessments is crucial for achieving sustainable development goals. By adapting the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) to account for the demand and supply of shared resources across marine and terrestrial food production systems, we assess future land-use changes and associated sustainability indicators under alternative blue food scenarios. Our results demonstrate that shifting diets towards fish products can prevent 11-16 Mha of forest and natural vegetation conversion and reduce emissions by up to 125 MtCO2e/year compared to baseline scenarios. The study also reveals that a minimum 2.3-fold increase in fed aquaculture production above 2020 levels is necessary to meet global demand by 2050, even in low fish consumption scenarios. These findings highlight the critical role of blue foods in mitigating environmental impacts of food production and emphasize the need for integrated land-sea management approaches in global food security planning. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Marine biology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9131294","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":609354953,"identity":"9a37a2ca-f384-4715-ae83-537cc0176783","order_by":0,"name":"Scott 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