Temporal Dynamics of Surface Water Extent in Lake Haramaya, Ethiopia Using Multi-Sensor Satellite Data (1990–2024)

Temporal Dynamics of Surface Water Extent in Lake Haramaya, Ethiopia Using Multi-Sensor Satellite Data (1990–2024) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Temporal Dynamics of Surface Water Extent in Lake Haramaya, Ethiopia Using Multi-Sensor Satellite Data (1990–2024) Jemal Tefera, Esubalew Adem, Mansour Almazroui, Riaz Ali, Suraj Kumar Bhagat This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8842115/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines the significant fluctuations in the surface area of Lake Haramaya in eastern Ethiopia from 1990 to 2024, utilizing time series analysis of Multi-Spectral (MS, Landsat) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR, Sentinel) satellite imagery. Annual water extent was mapped using the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) applied to MS data and complementary SAR-based water detection. The analysis reveals a clear trajectory of severe decline, with the lake's surface area shrinking by 87.5% from 3.77 km² in 1990 to a critical low of 0.47 km² by 2020, culminating in near-complete desiccation around 2005 and again in 2017. A weak statistical correlation between lake extent and rainfall (r ≈ −0.27) indicates that climatic variability was not the primary driver of this collapse. Instead, the shrinkage is strongly attributed to anthropogenic pressures, including unregulated water extraction for irrigation, particularly for khat cultivation, urban water supply, domestic use, and watershed erosion. Remarkably, a significant resurgence was observed after 2020, with the lake recovering to 2.73 km² by 2024, primarily due to concerted catchment rehabilitation and soil and water conservation efforts. In particular, the Participatory Integrated Watershed of Haramaya Lake Development (PILHWSD) program, led by local institutions and communities, has played a central role in reducing runoff, enhancing recharge, and improving watershed conditions. The findings underscore the critical impact of human activity on fragile aquatic ecosystems and highlight the potential for recovery through integrated watershed management and sustainable water resource policies. Lake Haramaya Surface water dynamics Multi Spectral Landsat (MS) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) Ethiopia Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Graphicalabstract.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 18 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 29 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 26 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 19 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 18 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 10 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8842115","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":613816749,"identity":"ee1e9bce-09a3-484b-9de5-648eadd5e179","order_by":0,"name":"Jemal Tefera","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Space Science \u0026 Geospatial Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jemal","middleName":"","lastName":"Tefera","suffix":""},{"id":613816750,"identity":"e9b4fa25-336b-479c-99b2-c80b44deb47d","order_by":1,"name":"Esubalew Adem","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZh4GhgQGGyCLsfEAKVrSQFoaiNTCwAMiDoOZxGkxOM577MODivN2a9sPA22psYkmrOUwX/KMhDO3k7edSQRqOZaW20BYC48xQ2Lb7WSzA0AtjA2HidXy71yy2fmHJGlpOGBndoNYWySBfmFIOJacYHYDaEsCMX7hO3/2MOOPGjt7s/PpDx98qLEhrEXhAIROBKtMIKQcBOShhtoTo3gUjIJRMApGKAAAKGFHxdej5p0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Space Science \u0026 Geospatial Institute","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Esubalew","middleName":"","lastName":"Adem","suffix":""},{"id":613816751,"identity":"cf55d4de-1c52-4f88-9f3c-37754f2db615","order_by":2,"name":"Mansour Almazroui","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"King Abdulaziz University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mansour","middleName":"","lastName":"Almazroui","suffix":""},{"id":613816752,"identity":"da641952-fccf-4dfb-a029-3dc99ed1a907","order_by":3,"name":"Riaz Ali","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shenzhen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Riaz","middleName":"","lastName":"Ali","suffix":""},{"id":613816756,"identity":"cd326a8d-caa5-4ac8-a8ce-994f2106a87d","order_by":4,"name":"Suraj Kumar Bhagat","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"SRM University - 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