Exploring the Integration of a Global AI Model with Traditional Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting

Exploring the Integration of a Global AI Model with Traditional Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Method Article Exploring the Integration of a Global AI Model with Traditional Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting Hongxiong Xu, Yihong Duan, Xiangde Xu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4756398/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have profoundly transformed weather forecasting, challenging traditional reliance on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Despite notable progress, AI models still depend heavily on traditional NWP systems and data assimilation methods to generate analysis fields, a dependency that increases computational demands and might limit forecast accuracy. This study explored the integration of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) with the Pangu-Weather AI forecasting model (GSI-Pangu), and assessed the potential for AI models to autonomously generate forecasts by leveraging mature data assimilation systems. Our experiments commenced by adopting ERA5 reanalysis data for the initial cycle, and then involved assimilation of simulated observations in subsequent cycles, spanning a month-long period. Results demonstrated notable enhancements in forecast accuracy, with reductions in the root mean square error across various atmospheric variables compared with the results of a control experiment without data assimilation. Additionally, the results highlighted GSI-Pangu’s ability to predict large-scale circulation patterns of extreme precipitation events, together with its effectiveness in driving regional models to accurately forecast precipitation intensity and distribution. Successful implementation of GSI within the Pangu-Weather framework underscores the transformative potential of hybrid forecasting systems, which merge conventional meteorological techniques with AI innovations, thereby facilitating accelerated adoption of AI in weather forecasting. Atmospheric Sciences Data assimilation Pangu-Weather AI weather forecasting GSI WRF Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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