Canada's wildfire future: climate change below a 2°C global target avoids large increases in burned area by the end of the century

Canada's wildfire future: climate change below a 2°C global target avoids large increases in burned area by the end of the century | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Canada's wildfire future: climate change below a 2°C global target avoids large increases in burned area by the end of the century Salvatore Curasi, Joe Melton, Vivek Arora, Elyn Humphreys, Cynthia H. Whaley This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4364877/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Wildfire impacts the global carbon cycle, as well as property, harvestable timber, and public health. Canada saw a record fire season in 2023 with 14.9 Mha burned—over seven times the 1986 - 2022 average of 2.1 Mha. Here we utilize a new process-based wildfire module that explicitly represents fire weather, fuel type and availability, ignition sources, fire suppression, and vegetation’s climate response to project the future of wildfire in Canada. Under rapid climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP] 370 & 585) simulated annual burned area in the 2090s reaches 10.5 ± 2.1 to 11.7 ± 2.4 Mha, approaching the 2023 fire season total. However, climate change below a 2°C global target (SSP 126), keeps the 2090s area burned near modern (2004 - 2014) norms. Simulated area burned and carbon emissions are most sensitive to climate drivers and lightning but future lightning activity is a key uncertainty. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences wildfire disturbance carbon cycle land surface model CLASSIC Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files futurefiremssup.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted Unknown event 09 May, 2024 Editorial decision: Reject before peer review 09 May, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 08 May, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 03 May, 2024 First submitted to journal 03 May, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4364877","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":300090166,"identity":"a63bf670-2f16-44c2-91c1-9f8a8b5c14df","order_by":0,"name":"Salvatore Curasi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5UlEQVRIie3QsQrCMBCA4QvRdklxVRzyCi3O4qukFJwcBEEcVAJCXQJ9hL5CQXBOCeimq5O0k6tuBRdrXcShrZtg/umGfNwRAJ3uB6Mcc8ieE8ayHrEl4kgUxGA1CSCOG8VI7JrEjDlG/pnSNbklGSwomCopJVS4TzJxImVtHAF7h5NhxTpZEIYibG27ADsGbaggx7Qgg3BFLvcXMa/l5JRvafrM5YoYGGCek4p/sE8pj8WBeZEyeh1hS8cno3EpoYEXJ9mU9cNApddstqQtcx+VH5Yn35YqMCrff7T8Fuh0Ot0f9ABCfkLwM348pwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4534-3344","institution":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Salvatore","middleName":"","lastName":"Curasi","suffix":""},{"id":300090168,"identity":"40e46180-a1d2-4f6b-a24a-5ea46403f95c","order_by":1,"name":"Joe Melton","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9414-064X","institution":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joe","middleName":"","lastName":"Melton","suffix":""},{"id":300090171,"identity":"9eeb3867-95e2-4623-9f30-52dd476ae53f","order_by":2,"name":"Vivek Arora","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vivek","middleName":"","lastName":"Arora","suffix":""},{"id":300090174,"identity":"0b5d1bd9-b5e3-43c4-b64d-b1624cb5bd00","order_by":3,"name":"Elyn Humphreys","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Geography \u0026 Environmental Studies, Carleton University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Elyn","middleName":"","lastName":"Humphreys","suffix":""},{"id":300090176,"identity":"23953192-cf04-4f0d-856e-21209463ae7a","order_by":4,"name":"Cynthia H. 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