A model-based approach for examining multispecies phenological correlation and divergence.

A model-based approach for examining multispecies phenological correlation and divergence. | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Ecology and Evolution This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 12 May 2026 V1 Latest version Share on A model-based approach for examining multispecies phenological correlation and divergence. Authors : Megan Stamp 0009-0003-6081-0793 [email protected] , John O'Keefe [email protected] , and Albert Phillimore [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/authorea.15003178/v1 Under Review Ecology and Evolution Peer review timeline 13 views 14 downloads Contents Abstract Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Climate change is driving shifts in phenology, the magnitude of which varies among species, with the potential to disrupt interspecific interactions and competition within guilds. While many studies focus on simplified pairwise phenological interactions, limited efforts have been made to explore phenological patterns in a more complex guild context. We propose that the phenological dynamics of species in a guild can be described in terms of two metrics --- phenological correlation, and divergence (i.e., extent of phenological overlap), which are expected to be key determinants of year-to-year variation in the strength of interspecific competition. Here, we present a model-based approach to estimate these phenological properties of a guild. As a test case, we apply our approach to a 32-year time series of leafing phenology for deciduous trees in Massachusetts. We find that tree species show highly correlated phenological time series, and there is minimal change in the strength of competition over time. Using simulations, we show that model performance in tracking temporal changes depends on the number of years, but remains robust with as few as 10 species. Our model-based approach opens up promising avenues to advance our understanding of the impacts of climate change on guild phenology and species interactions. Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 12 May 2026 Peer review timeline Under Review Ecology and Evolution 16 May 2026 Under Review Collection Ecology and Evolution Authors Affiliations Megan Stamp 0009-0003-6081-0793 [email protected] The University of Edinburgh School of Biological Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, EH9 3FL View all articles by this author John O'Keefe [email protected] The University of Edinburgh School of Biological Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, EH9 3FL View all articles by this author Albert Phillimore [email protected] The University of Edinburgh School of Biological Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, EH9 3FL View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 13 views 14 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Megan Stamp, John O'Keefe, Albert Phillimore. A model-based approach for examining multispecies phenological correlation and divergence.. Authorea . 12 May 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/authorea.15003178/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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