Impacts of Urban Expansion and Land Use Change on Land Surface Temperature and Livelihoods in Peri-Urban Bahir Dar Zuria

Impacts of Urban Expansion and Land Use Change on Land Surface Temperature and Livelihoods in Peri-Urban Bahir Dar Zuria | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Impacts of Urban Expansion and Land Use Change on Land Surface Temperature and Livelihoods in Peri-Urban Bahir Dar Zuria Bekele Bedada Damtie, Habtamu Awulachew Zimbele, Zinabu Getahun Sisay This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9208935/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 16 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urbanization and population growth are challenged this world in different aspects. In developing country like Ethiopia rapid population growth and urbanization the main issues. In Ethiopia, present significant challenges, including pressure on infrastructure, housing shortages, and environmental degradation. Thus, this study examines the effects of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on land surface temperature (LST) in Bahir Dar Zuria between 1995 and 2024 using Landsat imagery. The findings reveal that there is a substantial expansion of built-up areas (13.49%) at the expense of cropland (11.16% decline), with an annual conversion rate of 80 hectares. These changes have contributed to a notable increase in mean LST from 25.94°C in 1995 to 29.55°C in 2024, reflecting a 5.6°C rise. Urban-rural gradient analysis demonstrated higher LST values within 5–15 km of the city center, correlating with industrial zones and new housing developments. Statistical analysis indicated a positive relationship between LST and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) (R²: 0.24–0.42) and a negative correlation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (R²: 0.25–0.32). While Lake Tana and urban green spaces provided localized cooling, 46% of the study area exhibited severe thermal discomfort, adversely affecting agricultural productivity and livelihoods. The study underscores the need for sustainable urban planning, stricter land-use policies, and enhanced green infrastructure to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization. Community engagement in urban development processes is also essential to ensure balanced and environmentally conscious growth. Through implementing evidence-based policies and fostering sustainable development practices, Bahir Dar Zuria can better manage urban expansion while preserving critical natural and agricultural resources. Urbanization Cropland Peri-Urban Sustainable Planning Land Use Land Cover Land Surface Temperature Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 18 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 18 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 16 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 07 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 04 May, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 24 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 14 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9208935","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":636565338,"identity":"c14217da-53a6-4825-bdef-5ec115a23370","order_by":0,"name":"Bekele Bedada Damtie","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Space Science and Geospatial Institute","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bekele","middleName":"Bedada","lastName":"Damtie","suffix":""},{"id":636565339,"identity":"151b6737-28cf-4cf7-ab33-676bc73884e3","order_by":1,"name":"Habtamu Awulachew Zimbele","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bahir Dar University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Habtamu","middleName":"Awulachew","lastName":"Zimbele","suffix":""},{"id":636565340,"identity":"ff729362-6143-4cba-971d-2b390a192b9a","order_by":2,"name":"Zinabu Getahun Sisay","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bahir Dar University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zinabu","middleName":"Getahun","lastName":"Sisay","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-24 08:25:48","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9208935/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9208935/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109087202,"identity":"d356a100-6774-4e6e-9d37-8eb2c6535d8f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-12 13:13:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1403355,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptV1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9208935/v1_covered_0272262f-6cad-4a3c-9934-e344f9289a84.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Impacts of Urban Expansion and Land Use Change on Land Surface Temperature and Livelihoods in Peri-Urban Bahir Dar Zuria","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Urbanization, Cropland, Peri-Urban, Sustainable Planning, Land Use Land Cover, Land Surface Temperature","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9208935/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9208935/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUrbanization and population growth are challenged this world in different aspects. In developing country like Ethiopia rapid population growth and urbanization the main issues. In Ethiopia, present significant challenges, including pressure on infrastructure, housing shortages, and environmental degradation. Thus, this study examines the effects of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on land surface temperature (LST) in Bahir Dar Zuria between 1995 and 2024 using Landsat imagery. The findings reveal that there is a substantial expansion of built-up areas (13.49%) at the expense of cropland (11.16% decline), with an annual conversion rate of 80 hectares. These changes have contributed to a notable increase in mean LST from 25.94\u0026deg;C in 1995 to 29.55\u0026deg;C in 2024, reflecting a 5.6\u0026deg;C rise. Urban-rural gradient analysis demonstrated higher LST values within 5\u0026ndash;15 km of the city center, correlating with industrial zones and new housing developments. Statistical analysis indicated a positive relationship between LST and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) (R\u0026sup2;: 0.24\u0026ndash;0.42) and a negative correlation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (R\u0026sup2;: 0.25\u0026ndash;0.32). While Lake Tana and urban green spaces provided localized cooling, 46% of the study area exhibited severe thermal discomfort, adversely affecting agricultural productivity and livelihoods. The study underscores the need for sustainable urban planning, stricter land-use policies, and enhanced green infrastructure to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization. Community engagement in urban development processes is also essential to ensure balanced and environmentally conscious growth. Through implementing evidence-based policies and fostering sustainable development practices, Bahir Dar Zuria can better manage urban expansion while preserving critical natural and agricultural resources.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Impacts of Urban Expansion and Land Use Change on Land Surface Temperature and Livelihoods in Peri-Urban Bahir Dar Zuria","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-05-12 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