Studying the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution and Biology of Vectors-Borne Diseases in Iran Data Analysis and Environmental Modelling

Studying the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution and Biology of Vectors-Borne Diseases in Iran Data Analysis and Environmental Modelling | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 29 January 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Studying the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution and Biology of Vectors-Borne Diseases in Iran Data Analysis and Environmental Modelling Author : Ebrahim Abbasi 0000-0003-1861-5321 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176969622.24321901/v1 119 views 79 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Climate change profoundly affects the ecology and distribution of disease vectors such as Aedes aegypti, the main mosquito responsible for transmitting dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. This study assesses how projected climatic shifts will alter vector habitat suitability across Iran, a country with diverse ecological and climatic zones. A total of 124 geo-referenced occurrence records were compiled from field surveys, surveillance data, literature, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from WorldClim 2.1, together with human population density and satellite-derived indices (NDVI, NDWI, and TMI), were used as predictors. Species distribution modeling was performed using MaxEnt 3.4.4 under two future climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 (moderate) and SSP5-8.5 (high-emission) for 2050 and 2070. The model performed strongly (AUC = 0.93; TSS = 0.81). The most influential predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the wettest quarter, and population density. Current suitable habitats are concentrated in southern and coastal provinces such as Hormozgan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Bushehr, and Fars. Future projections indicate substantial northward and altitudinal expansion, increasing total suitable areas by 32% under SSP2-4.5 and 48% under SSP5-8.5. These results demonstrate that climate change will markedly expand the potential range of Aedes aegypti in Iran, increasing the likelihood of arboviral disease emergence in new ecological zones. Adaptive surveillance, climate-based early-warning systems, and targeted vector control strategies are urgently needed to mitigate the growing public-health risks associated with a warming climate. Supplementary Material File (manuscript.docx) Download 3.12 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 29 January 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords comparative ecological experiment ecosystem ecology freshwater invertebrate multiple statistical terrestrial theoretical theory Authors Affiliations Ebrahim Abbasi 0000-0003-1861-5321 [email protected] Shiraz University of Medical Sciences View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 119 views 79 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Ebrahim Abbasi. Studying the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution and Biology of Vectors-Borne Diseases in Iran Data Analysis and Environmental Modelling. Authorea . 29 January 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176969622.24321901/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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